Duke vs. Kansas predictions: time to back the Blue Devils in battle of blue bloods?

Duke head coach Jon Scheyer greets fans in the Duke student section after earning his first win as head coach of the Blue Devils in an NCAA college basketball game against Jacksonville in Durham, N.C., Monday, Nov. 7, 2022. The Associated Press

The Blue Devils and Jayhawks will meet in Indianapolis for the prime-time game in the Champions Classic. We’re here to preview the match and give you our best Duke vs. Kansas predictions. 

Kansas started its title defense with easy wins over Nebraska Omaha and North Dakota State. However, it’s important to mention head coach Bill Self is still serving a school-imposed suspension and won’t be on the sidelines Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, Duke overwhelmed Jacksonville and USC Upstate. Sadly, stud freshman Dariq Whitehead is still unavailable for this game, but Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils have plenty of young talent to compete. 

Both teams are facing their first real test of the season.

So, which team has the edge? And how should bettors attack this matchup? 

Duke vs. Kansas odds

Spread: Duke -1.5 (-110) vs. Kansas +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Duke (-125) vs. Kansas (+105)

Total: Over 144.5 (-110) | Under 144.5 (-110)

Duke vs. Kansas prediction Duke Blue Devils ML (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Sharp bettors have attacked this line, as the Blue Devils opened as two-point underdogs, but the line has crossed to Duke -1.5. 

The sharps have a clear angle on this game. Let me break that angle down. 

Duke is overly athletic. Even with Whitehead out, and even if fellow rookie Dereck Lively is still on a minutes restriction, the frontcourt of Kyle Filipowski and Ryan Young is hard to out-run or out-jump. 

I like Kansas’ offseason moves and roster construction, especially with Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar. But they are severely undersized in this matchup.

That should play out on the glass, as the Blue Devils have been elite on the offensive boards while the Jayhawks have been sloppy on the defensive boards. 

Moreover, it’ll be tough for Kansas to score in the paint. Kansas loves to run the floor and attack the rim, but every Jayhawks slasher, from Gradey Dick to Jalen Wilson, will hit a Blue Devils brick wall on the interior.

Kansas can counter by running ball screens with Dajuan Harris and Joseph Yesufu, but that’s where Duke’s Jeremy Roach can counter. Roach is looking like one of college basketball’s better defensive point guards. 

I’m unsure how Kansas can score if it can’t run ball screens or attack the rim. The Jayhawks will have to go thermonuclear from deep, which has never been the Jayhawks way. 

Meanwhile, look for Scheyer to run a four-out offense that will dump it down low and relentlessly attack Kansas’s undersized interior. One of Young, Filipowski, or Christian Reeves will have a field day. 

I’m also worried about Kansas generally. The program saw serious roster turnover in the offseason and is missing the head coach for a monster early-season non-conference game. 

Self is college basketball’s best head coach, and we can’t overlook his absence, especially when the Jayhawks are battling a fellow blue blood. 

So, I’ll back the smart money and bet on the Blue Devils to take down the defending champs. I’d rather take the ML with Duke laying points, and I would stop buying Duke at -135. 

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