Dubois pins hopes on power but ring wizard Usyk should prevent an upset

Daniel Dubois has had 20 fights as a professional heavyweight while Oleksandr Usyk has had only four bouts in the same division. Usyk is much the smaller man, usually weighing 20 pounds less than Dubois who, at 6ft 5in, is two inches taller than him. Dubois is 25 and he clearly punches harder than the 36-year-old Usyk who is also living though the trauma of his country, Ukraine, being ground down by a Russian invasion that is no closer to being resolved now than when it began 18 months ago.

Yet the blunt truth remains that none of Dubois’s considerable advantages are likely to count for much when he steps into the ring in the Polish city of Wroclaw on Saturday night to challenge Usyk who will make the second defence of the IBF, WBA and WBO world heavyweight titles he won when he outclassed Anthony Joshua in September 2021.

Usyk, unlike Dubois, is a brilliant technician and a hardened champion who has a deep and outstanding pedigree as both an amateur and professional boxer. An Olympic gold medallist and the former undisputed cruiserweight champion of the world, Usyk displays an ease and wizardry between the ropes that Dubois will never be able to master.

It was no real surprise to those who have followed him for years that Usyk was just too skilful and courageous for Joshua in both of their fights, despite the rematch last August being only his fourth as a heavyweight. And so it is hard to make a compelling case for Dubois who has not faced the same quality of opposition as Joshua had done before he lost to the Ukrainian grandmaster.

Dubois was brave and locked in battle with Joe Joyce when a fractured orbital bone brought a premature end to their contest in November 2020. He has rebuilt his career from that shattering defeat but Dubois was knocked down three times in the first round in his last bout against the deeply obscure South African Kevin Lerena. There was clear mitigation that Dubois took a heavy blow to the temple just after his leg buckled painfully beneath him. He showed great courage to drag himself off the canvas and then knock out Lerena with devastating power in the third round.

That power offers Dubois’s sole hope of causing an upset against Usyk. He and his new trainer, Don Charles, know that he cannot attempt to outpoint the champion so Dubois has promised to be aggressive in his pursuit of an early stoppage. Criticising Joshua for being excessively cautious in his approach, Dubois said of Usyk earlier this week: “You’ve definitely got to rough him up. It’s no secret – you can’t stand there and try and outbox him. I know what I’ve got to do.”

Heavyweight boxing, of course, is different because it is the realm of bizarre and unexpected events where one huge punch from a giant man can change everything. But Usyk has almost certainly seen too much, both in and out of the ring, to be unsettled by Dubois. With the vast majority of the 40,000 crowd roaring their support for him in Wroclaw, only 300 miles from the Ukrainian border, Usyk will be concentrated and determined. Wroclow has always had a large Ukrainian population, which has increased markedly since refugees began flooding across the border, and Usyk spoke recently of the war in his battered homeland.

Daniel Dubois in a training session before the fight against Olaksandr Usyk on Saturday night. Photograph: Maciej Kulczyński/EPA

“After my fights with Anthony Joshua I went to the frontline. I lived with the soldiers. Of course that gave me motivation. I sometimes speak to my friends on the phone, and I can hear missiles exploding in the background. I can hear the sounds of bombing. The people I speak to say ‘brother, I will call you back, if I am still alive.’”

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Usyk added that: “Through binoculars, from 900m, I saw my enemies running, exploding tanks and broken houses. I saw people with no legs and arms. I saw people walking but looking like they were dead.”

The world champion is a heroic figure in Ukraine, with his fights offering fleeting respite from the war. “If I can bring people just a little bit of enjoyment,” he said, “I would fight every day.”

That commitment from Usyk means that it is likely to be a long and difficult night for the British challenger. Dubois seems to believe he will produce a seismic shock but all the odds, apart from his physical attributes, are stacked against him.