‘Downton Abbey 2’ Will Welcome Older Moviegoers Back To Theaters This Christmas

‘Downton Abbey’

PHOTO BY JAAP BUITENDIJK – © 2019 FOCUS FEATURES

Focus Features has announced that not only will we be getting a theatrical sequel to the Downton Abbey movie, but that the Carnival Films-produced sequel will open this Christmas. Franchise newbies Hugh Dancy, Laura Haddock, Nathalie Baye and Dominic West will join the original cast. No word on if Maggie Smith will reprise, since (spoilers for the first film) her character received a grim medical diagnosis in the last film’s climax. The previous Downton Abbey film, released in October of 2019, had a certain “end of the road” mentality not unlike James Bobin and Jason Segal’s The Muppets in 2011. We’ll see if Downton Abbey 2, penned by Julian Fellowes, produced by Gareth Neame and Liz Trubridge and directed by Simon Curtis, will be at least as good as Muppets Most Wanted.

The Focus Features-distributed film, which will presumably have a smooth shoot mostly in and around the title locale (IE – less challenges for Covid-era production), will open theatrically on December 22, alongside Warner Bros.’ The Matrix 4 and Universal and Illumination’s Sing 2 and 20th Century Pictures and Disney’s The Kings Man. Christmas is quickly turning into a conventional year-end pile-up, with Spider-Man: No Way Home opening on December 17 and Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story (from 20th Century and Disney) launching December 10.  With 1/2 of all American adults at least partially vaccinated (I get my first shot tomorrow) and 1/3 entirely vaccinated, and with NYC lifting capacity levels to 33%, it is quite apparent that Hollywood thinks that American moviegoers, even (much) older adults, will be both able and willing to go to the movies this Christmas.

Downton Abbey opened on September 20, 2019, powering past Sylvester Stallone’s Rambo: Last Blood and Brad Pitt’s sci-fi melodrama Ad Astra to score a $31 million domestic debut. That was among the best “from TV to movies” launches ever, right between X-Files: Fight the Future ($30 million in 1998) and High School Musical 3: Senior Year ($42 million in 2008). It legged out to $96.85 million domestic and $194.7 million worldwide on a $13 million budget. It was a straight IP play, but it also worked for moviegoers young and old who just wanted a relaxing and conflict-lite PG-rated dramady for adults featuring well-liked grown-up movie stars. It was also refreshing in that a major television show was being christened as a major property by virtue of getting a theatrical movie spin-off.

‘Downton Abbey 2’

Focus Features

Downton Abbey played 74% female and 65% over 35 over its opening weekend. That we’re not only getting a theatrical sequel but one released in mid-December implies that Comcast believes that the theatrical industry will be in a position to try and approximate business as usual sooner rather than later. The presumption is that Canada and Europe will also be back on their feet at least by December. Although since we’re dealing with a (speculation alert) over/under $20 million movie, they really only need viable domestic business to justify the expense. With all the chatter about overseas box office dominating over the last decade, North America still matters most when it comes to Hollywood biggies. Even for a conventional 35/65 split for a global blockbuster, we’re still talking 1/3 from a single territory.  

Sure, the later Fast Saga sequels, the later Transformers movies and Godzilla Vs. Kong earned more in China than in North America. Sure, some films (the Bridget Jones sequels, the Johnny English movies) can earn noticeably more in the UK than in North America, but even James Bond movies earn far more in North America than in any single overseas marketplace. Skyfall earned $304 million domestic and $161 million in the UK while Spectre earned $200 million domestic and $124 million in the United Kingdom. For all the talk about how Marvel’s Shang-Chi is targeting China, I would be pleasantly surprised if it performs as well in China as it does in North America. Spider-Man: Far from Home earned $200 million in China but $390 million domestic. Captain Marvel earned $154 million in China but $426 million domestic.

A $66 million gross for Tenet was a solid result in China (Inception grossed $68 million in 2010 while Dunkirk earned $51 million in 2017) but a $58 million domestic cume was an unmitigated disaster. We can discuss the reasons for that (rising infection rates, theaters in NYC and LA remaining closed, etc.), but it was only the soft domestic gross that allowed Tenet to be tagged as an outright bomb. Overseas box office matters, especially in the cumulative sense. But we’ve seen from the last year copious examples of how Hollywood movies still depend on North American box office more than on any one overseas territory. A Downton Abbey 2 opening on December 22 means Hollywood thinks grown-up moviegoers in America will be willing and able to go to the movies by Christmas.