Doug Ford still standing after a debate short on inspiration

It’s rare for a rookie debater to come out of nowhere to win an election contest so decisively — speaking from the heart and head to touch voters in the gut.

But in his first televised debate, he pulled it off — showing empathy and humility, not to mention a mastery of Ontario’s greatest challenges: from entrenched poverty and education problems, to health care and climate change emergencies.

Yes, Mike Schreiner, the little-known leader of Ontario’s lesser-known Green party, won the debate hands down.

No, he’ll never reach all the way up to the pinnacle of power as premier of this province.

While the Greens might well improve upon the one seat Schreiner holds (his own), the math isn’t in his favour. Which means that most voters with the stamina and dedication to watch the one and only debate of this provincial campaign must now choose, realistically, from a less inspiring election selection.

That’s democracy — and that’s debating — for better or for worse.

It’s hard to imagine Doug Ford’s uninspiring appearance — aided by the performance-enhancing substance of a briefing book, brought onstage over the objections of the debate’s network organizers — changing many minds. But even if the Progressive Conservative leader didn’t move the needle, the fact is that he didn’t have to — he’s the frontrunner sitting on a handsome lead in every public opinion poll.

Critics will criticize Ford, and admirers will admire him, whether or not he looked down at his prepared notes while the others spoke off the cuff. He was still standing Monday night, while they were trying desperately to catch up.

It’s difficult to fathom Andrea Horwath’s insipid rhetoric rallying many more Ontarians to the cause of her New Democratic Party, as she wages her fourth campaign in 13 years. She made the case, as best she could, that the NDP is best-placed to oust Ford’s Tories from power.

But instead of shaking up the campaign, Horwath played the role of storyteller on stage — endlessly retelling tales of voters she’s connected with on the campaign trail over the past couple of weeks. Without seeming to resonate with viewers listening in real time on TV.

It’s impossible to envision Steven Del Duca’s debating debut uprooting the playing field that left his Liberal party stuck in a distant third after the 2018 election, now locked in a bitter battle for second place with Horwath’s NDP. Del Duca took more chances — hurling better attack lines at Ford while holding his ground against Horwath’s recurring attacks against him — but his party has a long road to recovery as the June 2 vote looms.

Whether viewers stuck it out for the full 90-minute contest — or are merely exposed to video clips that never quite go viral — the debate is unlikely to determine the outcome. While these televised encounters are a democratic cornerstone of modern elections, but they are not as decisive as so many journalists imagine them to be — barring catastrophic blunders or exceptional ripostes.

That is especially true of an Ontario election debate relegated to a suppertime slot by a consortium of television networks reluctant to cut into prime-time advertising revenues. Whatever the true audience, and the actual impact, this debate is unlikely to dramatically reset the pacing or prosecuting of this campaign.

No matter Ford’s shortcomings Monday — relying on notes, flat on his feet, reciting platitudes, lapsing into faux folksiness — he seemed more self-assured than the shaky debater of four years ago. Which was enough to win him the last election.

Whatever Horwath’s successes Monday — reminding people of the legacy of a 15-year Liberal dynasty — she seemed less self-assured and nimble than in past clashes with then-premier Kathleen Wynne (whom Ford ousted while Horwath came a distant second).

Whatever Del Duca’s achievements Monday — trying to neutralize Horwath’s attacks while concentrating his firepower on Ford — he held his own without leapfrogging to where he needs to be.

There has been endless spinning and speculation, based on interminable focus group research from the other parties, that Del Duca would turn off voters. How leaders come across on TV is a subjective question that rarely lends itself to hot takes from commentators or spinners, but a case can be made that Del Duca was calm and confident, disciplined and focused — without moving the needle in a big way.

Give him credit, however, for getting his prefabricated attack lines out in well-timed sound bites and bursts that television stations can repackage into political conflict, like this sample from the final few minutes of the debate:

“Mr. Ford keeps dishing out empty words and slogans — by the way, slogans that other people write for him — instead of sharing what’s in his heart in his head,” Del Duca said. “And this is after he’s been in the job for four years.”

Whether those bits of bravado augur the beginning of the Liberal recovery we won’t know for another two-and-a-half weeks.

For her part, Horwath seemed both more serious and yet more listless than in past debates. She pitched a proposed tax freeze on Ontarians earning up to $200,000 based on the notion that “everyday folks in this province should be able to afford everyday life (earning scorn from Schreiner for the NDP’s tax-fighter tendencies). And she threw an old Ford promise back at him, insisting that “I would have made sure that an ‘iron ring’ was put around seniors in long-term care … how shameful.”

But she faced taunts from Ford about a handful of unions that are now supporting his PCs: “For years, unions supported you. Well guess what — you’ve lost touch,” Ford kept repeating. “You lost the unions.”

Given his lead at this stage in the campaign, the debate was Ford’s to lose. His task was to avoid losing his cool, while preventing his rivals from catching fire.

Del Duca’s smooth performance won’t disrupt the trajectory of a Ford victory, nor win the day, unless he can persuade more people why his Liberals deserve their vote.

Schreiner’s debut was truly a new beginning, but it won’t change the ending of the campaign by leading to a change at the helm.

For all the media attention on the televised debate, stay tuned for what comes next. Brace yourself for a series of attack ads and negative advertising that will take over your television screens and make Monday’s encounter look like merely the warmup as the heat rises.

Martin Regg Cohn is a Toronto-based columnist focusing on Ontario politics and international affairs for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @reggcohn SHARE:

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