Dolphins’ Week 12 Win over Jets Epitomizes the Current AFC Playoff Picture Conundrum

Dolphins QB Tua TagovailoaMike Stobe/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins won convincingly over the New York Jets in the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game, but it’s hard to call the win impressive.

The Dolphins defense played well, but it was up against the offensively hampered Jets, who were starting career backup Tim Boyle for the first time this season. Miami put 30 points on the board, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both topped 100 yards. However, Tua Tagovailoa threw his ninth and 10th interceptions of the season.

It was not the sort of clean, everything-is-clicking sort of performance that we saw from the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving—and it was another example of how there is no flawless team in the AFC right now.

Over in the NFC, it’s easy to say that it’s the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles, 8-3 49ers and everyone else. The Niners aren’t far behind the Eagles, and they’ve looked dominant ever since their three-game skid and Week 9 bye.

The 8-3 Cowboys have largely beaten up on lesser teams and have yet to beat a team with a winning record, but they’ve been dominant at home. The 8-3 Detroit Lions are in the mix as well, but Thursday’s letdown against the Green Bay Packers suggests that Detroit may still be a year away.

Dallas may need to earn home-field advantage through the playoffs to make a serious Super Bowl run. The Eagles and 49ers appear to be the two teams who can win anywhere in the postseason—and they’ll provide some clarity when they face off in Week 13.

In the AFC, there’s shockingly little clarity, and Miami’s win didn’t help matters. The Dolphins would love to be a team on San Francisco’s or Philadelphia’s level, and at times they’ve looked like they might be. However, they’ve spent most of the season humbling struggling teams—not unlike Dallas—which doesn’t provide much insight into Miami’s postseason readiness.

The Dolphins have also failed to defeat a team that is currently above .500. Friday’s game against the rudderless Jets was never going to shed a truly positive light on Miami.

Another Terrific, Yet Unimpressive Win

The Dolphins won by 21 points. They racked up 395 yards of offense, held the opposition to 150 yards and 5-of-14 on third down. They provided a few highlight-reel plays, like Jevon Holland’s pick-six on a second-quarter desperation heave:

Yet, this one felt like a lot of Miami’s other 2023 wins. The Dolphins’ double-digit victories have come against the Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots and the Jets. Those are teams with a combined 15-37 record.

Denver is the only one of those teams at .500, and the Broncos have looked like a completely different team during their four-game winning streak than the one that lost 70-20 to Miami in Week 3.

The Dolphins were supposed to handle the Jets with ease, and while the final score suggests they did, there were some concerning issues during the game.

Tagovailoa may not have a full-blown turnover issue—he’s thrown a whopping 377 passes already this season—but poor reads like the one on his first interception will cost Miami against a playoff contender:

Tagovailoa’s second interception came just before halftime and right before Holland’s incredible interception return.

Hill and Waddle can be special, but if a defense is able to contain them, the Dolphins don’t have much else in the passing game. Dolphins not named Hill or Waddle combined for four catches and 27 yards on Friday.

If head coach Mike McDaniel can’t continue scheming Waddle and Hill open and making magic with a rotational backfield, Miami could be in trouble.

Can the Dolphins lean on their ground game and defense against top-tier teams in December and January? That remains to be seen, and while Miami’s defense has looked quite good over the past month, it may have suffered a serious blow when pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips suffered what appeared to be a non-contact Achilles injury.

In the Dolphins’ three games against opponents currently over .500 this season, they’ve lost by a combined score of 100-51. The reality is that we don’t know which version of Miami we might see in the postseason, and we’re unlikely to get a better idea until the Dolphins’ final three-game stretch versus the Dallas Cowboys, at the Baltimore Ravens and versus the Buffalo Bills—upcoming games against the Washington Commanders, Tennessee Titans and the Jets aren’t going to say much.

And Miami isn’t alone in the enigmatic cluster that is the AFC playoff picture.

The Top AFC Contenders Are All Vulnerable

The good news for the Dolphins is that they improved to 8-3, and there isn’t a dominant team like the Eagles in the conference.

The AFC playoff picture is as follows:

The 6-5 Buffalo Bills, 5-5 Indianapolis Colts, 5-5 Cincinnati Bengals and 5-5 Broncos are also in the mix.

Baltimore has been the closest thing we’ve seen to an oppressive force in the AFC. However, turnovers cost the Ravens in losses to the Steelers, Colts and Browns, and Baltimore lost standout tight end Mark Andrews to an ankle injury in Week 11.

“Andrews is likely out for the year, though as John Harbaugh said, there’s a chance he could return if Baltimore makes a deep playoff run,” NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

The Chiefs have the league’s third-ranked scoring defense, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. However, a lack of reliable receiver depth has caused losses to the Broncos, Eagles and Lions.

The Jaguars have a ton of talent—including quarterback Trevor Lawrence—but have played inconsistently on both sides of the ball, ranking 16th in offensive yards and 20th in yards allowed. The Browns have a championship-caliber defense but are on their third quarterback, rookie fifth-round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

The Texans have a budding star in rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, a steady coach in DeMeco Ryans and an above-average defense. However, Houston is largely untested and has dropped winnable games to teams like the Atlanta Falcons and the one-win Panthers.

The Steelers have a terrific defense and a Hall of Fame coach in Mike Tomlin but have been a mess offensively and recently fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Bills have had their own offensive issues and fired their coordinator, Ken Dorsey.

Following season-ending injuries to Anthony Richardson and Joe Burrow, respectively, the Colts and Bengals will play the rest of the way with backup quarterbacks. Denver’s in-season turnaround has been impressive, but its wins—three of them coming by two or fewer points—largely haven’t been.

All of these teams are flawed, injured or some combination of the two, and that includes Miami. One of them will ultimately represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII, and it’s fair to wonder if any of them has what it takes to outshine the NFC’s representative.