Dodgers vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Heaney, Dodgers Keep Thriving in Big Apple

We have the first matchup of this three-game series with the NL East’s New York Mets hosting the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers.

This game is the fifth meeting between these two clubs this season, with each team winning two of the first four matchups. 

Will the Dodgers continue their dominance of the league or can the Mets pull off the upset as a short home underdog? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Mets on Tuesday, August 30.

Dodgers vs Mets odds

Live odds courtesy of FanDuel on August 30, 2022.

The Dodgers were unveiled as consensus –130 favorites on Monday afternoon and have since been bet up to –140. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.5 and has stayed at that number.

Be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Dodgers vs Mets predictions

Picks made on 8/30/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Dodgers vs Mets game info

• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY• Date: Tuesday, August 30, 2022• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET• TV: SportsNet Los Angeles, SportsNet New York

Dodgers vs Mets betting preview Starting pitchers

Andrew Heaney (2-1, 1.94 ERA): Making just his 10th start of the season due to some shoulder injuries, left-hander Andrew Heaney will look to continue his outstanding pitching. Since making his latest return at the end of July, Heaney has been dominant as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of those six starts. The strikeouts have been racking up for Heaney during that stretch, particularly over his last two outings with the left-hander collecting 10 Ks in each of his last two starts. The former Top-10 draft pick relies on essentially just two pitches: a four-seamer and slider. However, that is all he needs as both pitches boast a whiff percentage north of 27% and BA south of .200.

Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.38 ERA): Taking the mound for the Mets is veteran right-hander Taijuan Walker. Outside of one awful start against the Atlanta Braves on August 5, it has been a great year for Walker. Walker has recovered nicely in the three starts since that poor outing, going 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Possessing a diverse six-pitch arsenal, Walker does a great job mixing his pitches and keeping hitters honest with his unpredictability.

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

Andrew Heaney has recorded at least six strikeouts in five of his last eight starts (63%). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets

Dodgers vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Los Angeles Dodgers enter this game amidst a dominating stretch of baseball, winning 22 of their last 27 games (81%). Meanwhile, the New York Mets have not seen quite the same amount of success as they are a few games over .500 across their last 20 games.

Do not get me wrong, the Mets have also been very good, but they are not quite at the Dodgers’ level. We should expect these trends to continue with left-hander Andrew Heaney slated to take the mound for Los Angeles.

Through nine starts this season, Heaney is 2-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. As mentioned in the starting pitcher section, he enters this game in good form since his latest return from the injured list. 

This strong play should continue against New York. Through three career appearances against the Mets, Heaney boasts a 1.08 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.

Across 54 career plate appearances against Heaney, this current New York roster possesses a mere .163 xBA, .298 xSLG, and .259 xwOBA. Since July 1, the Mets rank just 21st in the league in BA, 16th in SLG, 17th in OPS, and 19th in wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers.

Following Heaney is one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Dodgers’ relief pitching ranks second in the league in ERA, first in WHIP, first in BA, third in SLG, second in wOBA, and sixth in FIP.

While Los Angeles did utilize a lot of their bullpen in last night’s game against the Marlins, they still have a couple of their best arms (Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia) available for this contest. We are getting some value in Los Angeles at such a low price, which is partly due to the fact that New York is usually a strong hitting team.

However, the Mets are a much different team at the plate when facing left-handed pitching, which should set Heaney up for success.

Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-130 at PointsBet)

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Over/Under analysis

While the Dodgers’ pitching staff should shut the Mets down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Taijuan Walker. As mentioned in the starting pitcher section, Walker has been outstanding all season and has bounced back nicely since his one poor outing against Atlanta at the beginning of August.

We should expect this strong pitching to continue against Los Angeles, a team that Walker has fared well against over the last two seasons. Across his last three starts against the Dodgers, Walker possesses a 3.44 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Through 124 career plate appearances against Walker, this current Los Angeles roster possesses a .244 xBA and .335 xwOBA. Like the Dodgers, New York also boasts a strong bullpen.

Since July 1, the Mets’ relief pitching ranks 10th in the league in ERA, 11th in WHIP, 14th in wOBA, and ninth in FIP. With Monday serving as an off day for this club, the entire New York bullpen should be available for this game.

We are getting a generous number on the total because of how powerful the Dodgers lineup is. However, these are two great pitching staffs that are more than capable of shutting down opposing lineups.

Through their previous four meetings this season, the Under is 2-1-1 (67%).

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-106 at Unibet)

Best bet

With all that being said, we can find better bets than the Dodgers on the moneyline because Walker has been dealing on the mound. I am also not confident enough to take the Under due to the fact that the Dodgers’ offense can still explode at any time.

The one play I am most confident in is for Los Angeles’ left-hander to continue to see success, particularly in the strikeout department. After collecting at least six strikeouts in five of his last eight starts (63%), we should expect Heaney’s strong pitching to continue against a Mets lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching.

Looking at the projected starting lineup for New York, a third of the team possesses a strikeout rate north of 24%. As for the rest of their lineup, we just need a few of their better hitters to strikeout just once for us to likely get over this strikeout total, which is entirely possible considering Heaney boasts a stellar 35.2% strikeout rate and ranks in the 93rd percentile for whiff percentage.

Andrew Heaney Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-122 at FanDuel)

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