Dodgers’ quest for starting pitching might cost them prospects

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Whatever Shohei Ohtani decides in the coming days, one thing will remain certain.

The Dodgers need to acquire starting pitching for the 2024 season.

Ohtani’s decision, however, could have a ripple effect on how they acquire that pitching. The commitment of $500 million (or more) to one player on this year’s free-agent market would seem to make it less likely the Dodgers could also sign spend $200-300 million on one of the top free-agent starting pitchers – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (the most sought-after free agent on this year’s market) or Blake Snell.

What seems very likely as the Winter Meetings concluded Wednesday in Nashville is that the Dodgers will have to turn to the trade market to satisfy their pitching needs, with a trio of right-handers – Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow and the Chicago White Sox’s Dylan Cease – the most accomplished among those believed to be available.

“We have been going down both paths, the free-agent and trade paths, and trying to understand that market as best we can and trying to line up on something on either front,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Wednesday. “And I feel like we’ve made traction on both fronts and have some more clarity on things that could happen on either front. I’m not sure it feels inevitable (that the Dodgers will have to make a trade to acquire starting pitching). There are some talented pitchers on the free-agent market. There are some talented pitchers on the trade market. We’re open to different scenarios and ways to line up on adding a good arm.”

The Dodgers certainly have the prospects to make a trade, thanks to a system deep in the most valuable asset a team can have – young pitching.

“Obviously, we have a really talented farm system and within that a really talented base of pitching,” Friedman said before the meetings opened. “So I’m sure they’re all very popular among other teams because they’re really talented and fill a spot that is at the top of teams’ need list every winter.”

Bobby Miller and possibly Ryan Pepiot are expected to be in next year’s rotation even after the winter dust settles. The Dodgers might be reluctant to part with Emmet Sheehan or Kyle Hurt. But Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso or River Ryan – among others at the lower levels of the system – could be included in a trade package for one of those more established starters.

The Dodgers’ top position player prospects – Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch – are also increasingly likely to move, with Gavin Lux also a trade candidate if the Dodgers can get the Brewers to include Willy Adames in a package with Burnes.

With Mookie Betts expected to primarily play second base next year and Max Muncy signed to a contract extension at third base, with the DH spot potentially occupied by Ohtani, the path to regular playing time for Vargas or Busch has narrowed significantly – though General Manager Brandon Gomes plays up their limited experience in left field.

“There’s a lot of different paths we can go down – some of which create more opportunity (for Vargas or Busch), some of which make it harder and we’ll just have more clarity as we go,” Friedman said.

Vargas was handed the starting job at second base last spring based on his potential as a hitter and opened the season in the Dodgers’ lineup nearly every day. Hampered in part by hand injuries, the 24-year-old batted .195 in 81 games, was demoted to Triple-A at the All-Star break and didn’t see Dodger Stadium again.

“We’ve had some conversations with Miggy this winter,” Friedman said. “Now that we’re through the ’23 season, I think there’s a real chance we look back on it as a real positive. He had never struggled in his career. Last year was tough for him in a lot of ways.

“He’s an incredibly talented hitter. That didn’t show like it should and there were assumptions and things like we see with young players who feel they have to do more. They don’t trust that what got them there is good enough and they try to do more and they’re tweaking and they’re changing things to conform to what they think they need to do to be a major-league player. Vargy is one of the more talented natural hitters I’ve seen as a minor-leaguer coming up. So just getting back to that is going to be really helpful for him. And just how clear-eyed he is about it has us really encouraged leading into spring training.”

Busch was the Pacific Coast League Player of the Year after batting .349 with 27 home runs, 90 RBIs and a 1.049 OPS in 98 games in Triple-A last year. But he was unable to establish himself at the big-league level, batting .167 with scattered playing time over 27 games.

“I think for Michael Busch, he did everything he possibly could to knock the door down,” Friedman said. “He showed very clearly that he doesn’t belong in Triple-A, that he’s a major-league player. So he’ll have every opportunity to carve out a role and add to the talent we have on this team.”