Dirty tricks, pacts … and the outside chance of Kemi Badenoch storming to victory

With a whole weekend to go before Tory MPs can get on with the business of whittling down the Tory leadership candidates, the next 48 hours will be a frenzy of plotting, scheming, and deal-making.

Not only will the candidates and their supporters be working out how to win a place in the head-to-head ballot of members, they will also be trying to game the system to make sure their strongest rival fails to make it through.

The coming days will be as much about sabotaging the hopes of opponents as it will be about maximising the number of votes from MPs.

Here we analyse the four most likely scenarios to play out.

Stop Rishi

The former chancellor is the front-runner at this stage of the contest, as the only candidate with more than 100 MPs backing them, but he is not guaranteed a place in the final two, and even if he gets that far there is plenty of evidence he will not be picked by members.

Plenty of MPs, including Boris Johnson himself, would rather see almost anyone in Number 10 than Mr Sunak, as Johnsonites blame him for bringing down the Prime Minister and those on the right of the Conservative Party regard him as a roadblock to lowering taxes.

A dirty tricks campaign is already in full swing, with allegations about Dominic Cummings pulling the strings of the Sunak campaign (denied outright by Mr Sunak) making their way on to some front pages.

Rishi Sunak might be the front-runner at this stage of the contest, but plenty of MPs, including Boris Johnson, would rather see almost anyone than him in Number 10 Credit: Ben Cawthra/LNP

The Stop Rishi caucus has a two-part strategy: stop him getting to the final two, and if he does, stop him winning the members’ vote.

In order for the former scenario to play out, the right of the party and the Johnsonites would have to persuade backers of the other four candidates to coalesce around two of them. With Tom Tugendhat leaking support, his backers will be encouraged to vote for Penny Mordaunt as the moderate, One Nation candidate, rather than Mr Sunak, while the right of the party would need to unite around Liz Truss or Kemi Badenoch.

If that tactic fails, the MPs still have the power to choose the candidate most likely to beat Mr Sunak in a run-off, which polls suggest would be Ms Mordaunt.

Stop Penny

Supporters of Mr Sunak are well aware of the danger posed by Ms Mordaunt if she is his opponent in the final two.

Their task is to make sure that anyone but Ms Mordaunt ends up in a head-to-head with him, and if he builds a commanding lead in the later rounds of voting among MPs, he may be in a position to “lend” votes to another candidate – such as Ms Truss or Ms Badenoch – by instructing some of his supporters to vote for them in order to shut out Ms Mordaunt.

Ms Mordaunt, like Mr Sunak, is a moderate, meaning they are both scrapping for the same votes among MPs, and Mr Sunak will hope that if Tom Tugendhat is knocked out of the race he will pick up most of his votes by convincing MPs that he is the better candidate for centrists because of his greater experience.

Meanwhile, supporters of Ms Truss are already doing everything they can to discredit Ms Mordaunt in order to make sure it is the Foreign Secretary who makes it into the final two.

Supporters of Mr Sunak will be hoping anyone but Penny Mordaunt ends up in a head-to-head with him Credit: Eddie Mulholland for The Telegraph

Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister, has been scathing about her record as his deputy, saying he has “grave reservations” about her ability to do the top job, accusing her of lacking a grasp of detail and saying he had to ask Boris Johnson to replace her.

Simon Clarke, another Truss supporter, has said the country needs a leader who is “tested and ready” and that Ms Mordaunt does not fit that description.

If Ms Truss believes she cannot herself win, it is possible that she will follow other members of the current Cabinet by rowing in behind establishment candidate Mr Sunak, whom she used to introduce at events as the future of conservatism, in the hope of keeping her current job.

Mordaunt versus Truss

A head-to-head battle between Ms Mordaunt and Liz Truss would offer Conservative Party members a genuine choice between a moderate and a right-winger, and supporters of both women argue that each of them has a better chance of winning a general election than Rishi Sunak.

The former chancellor is by no means home and dry in terms of making it to the final two: his 101 votes might yet prove to be the high water mark, and would not be enough to make it to the head-to-head.

If Ms Mordaunt performs well in the TV debates, her supporters will hope that she scoops up most of Tom Tugendhat’s 32 votes, assuming he is eliminated in the next round, which would give her a chance of overtaking Mr Sunak. They will then relentlessly amplify every poll that suggests she is the more likely candidate to beat Sir Keir Starmer and hope that her momentum will persuade Sunak supporters to switch sides.

Liz Truss will be hoping the 27 MPs who backed the now-eliminated Suella Braverman will switch to her as a fellow right winger Credit: George Cracknell Wright/LNP

Meanwhile, Ms Truss will hope that the 27 MPs who backed the now-eliminated Suella Braverman, the Attorney General, will switch to her as a fellow right winger and that Kemi Badenoch’s 49 supporters will also switch if she falls by the wayside. Ms Truss is currently on 64 votes, meaning there are enough right-wing votes out there to get her over the 120 mark that would guarantee a place in the final two. Her strongest suit – assuming she is not overtaken by Ms Badenoch – is to play on the fears of right-wing MPs that they will be left without a candidate in the run-off if they do not back her.

The Badenoch-Truss coalition

There remains an outside chance of Kemi Badenoch storming to victory, with the help of Liz Truss’s supporters, if a deal can be done before the final round of MP voting.

Ms Truss is only 15 votes ahead of Ms Badenoch at this stage, and should Ms Truss’s campaign falter for some reason, such as a poor showing in the TV debates or a successful dirty tricks campaign by rivals, she might be tempted to form an alliance with the former communities minister to maximise her chances of a top Cabinet job in a Badenoch government.

Ms Badenoch’s supporters – who include the influential Michael Gove – believe she has every chance of winning a head-to-head among party members, as she represents a clean break from the past and has strong credentials as a traditional conservative.

Kemi Badenoch would arguably be the least experienced prime minister ever to land the job, but if Ms Truss believes her own chances are gone, she could offer her support to the former communities minister to maximise her chances of a top Cabinet job Credit: Jeff Gilbert for The Telegraph

But she would be arguably the least experienced prime minister ever to land the job, meaning she would need to surround herself with old hands who know the ropes. If Ms Truss believes her own chances of winning are gone, her best hope of staying near the top would be to throw in her lot with Ms Badenoch, by offering to back her in return for a promise of becoming deputy prime minister, or chancellor, or both.

The two women are the only Right-wingers left in the contest, so it would make perfect sense for them to join forces if it became clear one of them was going to be knocked out before the head-to-head.