Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and prediction
Tigers #Tigers
The Detroit Tigers (23-33) play the second game of their four-game series with the host Chicago White Sox (34-22) Friday. First pitch at Guaranteed Rate Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago won the first game of the series 4-1 Thursday as the White Sox outslugged the Tigers, hitting four solo home runs to Detroit’s one solo shot.
Season series: White Sox lead 3-1.
RHP Spencer Turnbull makes his ninth start for the Tigers. Turnbull is 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA (46 IP, 15 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 this year.
LHP Dallas Keuchel takes the rubber for the White Sox. Keuchel is 4-1 with a 4.53 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 across 11 starts.
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Tigers at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:32 p.m. ET.
Prediction
White Sox 5, Tigers 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the TIGERS (+115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Turnbull has much better stuff than Keuchel and there’s significant “reverse line movement” in the betting market.
For instance, Turnball has a 2.83 FIP vs. current White Sox hitters with a lower opponent’s wOBA and expected slugging percentage than Keuchel against current Tigers batters. Keuchel also has a 5.31 FIP vs. these batters.
Moreover, Keuchel grades in the 11th percentile or worse in whiff rate, expected ERA, opponent’s expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, and K% this season.
Furthermore, more than 85% of the action is on Chicago’s money line but the White Sox has been steamed down from a -182 favorite on most sportsbooks to the current number, according to Pregame.com. It’s a red flag in sports gambling when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
However, Detroit’s bullpen is 22nd in WAR and Chicago’s is second so that’s why I’m going with Tigers’ First 5 Innings money and run lines.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the TIGERS +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS heavier than, or instead of, Detroit’s First 5 Innings money line because of the aforementioned reasons plus there is more value in the half-run of insurance at the -130 price point.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 4.5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit since the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing the Under while the “average Joe” is taking the Over.
Also, Detroit’s lineup is in the cellar of most advanced hitting metrics vs. left-handed pitching and both teams are in the top-5 in the percentage of games to go Under this season.
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