Despite 2-0 Start, Dolphins Have More To Prove Before Joining NFL’s Top Contenders

Tua TagovailoaMaddie Meyer/Getty Images

When the AFC’s top Super Bowl contenders are discussed, it’s generally the usual suspects. The Kansas City Chiefs of course—they have represented the AFC in three of the last four Super Bowls. The Buffalo Bills, who annihilated the Las Vegas Raiders Sunday. The Cincinnati Bengals, even at 0-2. After a 2-0 start, the Baltimore Ravens may have entered the conversation as well.

Well, there’s another team in the AFC that has duplicated Baltimore’s undefeated start—after surviving in New England Sunday night, the Miami Dolphins have peeled off back-to-back road wins to open the season.

The Dolphins have a lot going for them this year. Just as he did last year before he got hurt, Tua Tagovailoa has come out of the gate hot. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be the most dangerous one-two punch in the league at wide receiver. When it’s rolling, the Dolphins’ offense is as dangerous as any in the NFL. Miami’s defense is a work in progress, but there’s talent on that side of the ball and Vic Fangio is one of the most well-regarded veteran coordinators in the league.

On paper, the Dolphins have all the ingredients to make a deep playoff run. Perhaps even represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII.

But for the Dolphins to truly be regarded as one of the AFC’s elite teams and a Super Bowl front-runner, there are a few things that need to happen—and a couple things that need to be cleaned up.

The straw that stirs the drink that is the Miami offense is, of course, Tagovailoa, who is off to a fantastic start to his fourth professional season.

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Tagovailoa didn’t post huge numbers against the Patriots—21 completions in 30 attempts for 249 yards and a touchdown with an interception. But the week before, Tagovailoa exploded against the Los Angeles Chargers to the tune of 466 passing yards and three scores. That massive game rocketed Tagovailoa into front-runner status for NFL MVP honors in some circles. But while some were taken aback by the ease with which Tagovailoa dissected the Chargers, Dolphins tight end Durham Smythe said Tagovailoa’s teammates are well aware of what he’s capable of.

“We see it every day, what he does in the offseason, how hard he works,” Smythe said, via Henry McKenna of Fox Sports. “It doesn’t surprise any of us. I think that was just more validation than anything. Obviously, we all expect big things from him the rest of the season in this building, and I think some people outside are starting to see that as well.”

Of course, we saw this movie just this past year—In Week 2 of the 2022 season, Tagovailoa scorched the Ravens for 469 yards and six touchdowns. But the following week against the Buffalo Bills, Tagovailoa was knocked from the game by a “back injury” that many believed to be a concussion. The following week against Cincinnati, Tagovailoa most assuredly suffered a concussion. He suffered another against the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day.

Now, the Dolphins and Tagovailoa took steps to insure this doesn’t happen again, whether it’s jiu-jitsu lessons for Tagovailoa to learn how to fall or improving the team’s offensive line. Tagovailoa has been sacked just once over the first two games of the season, and that needs to continue. Lose their star quarterback, and Miami’s toast. We saw it just last year.

Part of the reason that Tagovailoa took such a pounding a year ago was that the Dolphins couldn’t run the ball consistently—Miami was 25th in the league in rushing at 99.2 yards per game. Despite being connected in one way or another with just about every free-agent running back or potential trade target available at the position, the Dolphins’ biggest offseason addition in the backfield was passing-down back De’Von Achane. That left 31-year-old veteran Raheem Mostert as the team’s de facto lead back with Jeff Wilson on injured reserve to start the year.

Against the Patriots, Mostert gained 121 yards on the ground and the team averaged 4.8 yards per carry—the sort of offensive balance that keeps opposing defenses guessing and keeps pass-rushers from pinning their ears back. But the week before against Los Angeles, the Dolphins rushed for just 70 yards on 20 carries. That’s not what McDaniel, Mostert or Tagovailoa should want—50-dropback games mean more shots on the quarterback.

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Then there’s the Miami defense. Like the run game, the Dolphins showed improvement defensively in Week 2 relative to the season opener—especially against the run. And the Dolphins are admittedly playing without superstar defensive back Jalen Ramsey and were without their top edge-rusher in Jaelan Phillips against the Pats. But Miami was gouged for 230 yards on the ground by the Chargers and let the Patriots back into the game Monday night.

This isn’t to say that Miami’s defense has to be as good as Buffalo’s, or even Baltimore’s. Kansas City’s isn’t, and they have done OK for themselves in recent years. But as important as it is for the Dolphins to improve on last year’s 18th-place ranking defensively, it’s just as vital they be consistent. That the defense looks the same in Week 10 as it did in Week 2. That consistency is what gets teams wins in January.

Finally, the Dolphins need to make us believe they are among the AFC’s elite. A 2-0 start is great, and the Chargers and Patriots aren’t bad football teams. What they are, however, is winless. Both of them. And both of those games were single-digit wins. The Dolphins need a statement victory. They need to beat a mediocre Denver Broncos team by 17 in Week 3. Or better yet, go into Buffalo and send a message by beating the Bills in Week 4. Miami doesn’t have the resume of the AFC’s other heavyweights. They need to show they belong.

The good news is all these things are doable. A healthy Tagovailoa is playing as well as any quarterback in the league. A better offensive line in front of Tagovailoa is good news for both the young quarterback and the team’s ground game, which could get Wilson back in a couple of weeks. As the defense gets healthier and more experienced in Fangio’s system, it should improve.

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Get these Dolphins firing on all cylinders, and they can give Buffalo and Kansas City all they can handle. Win the AFC East. Even make it to Vegas as the AFC’s Super Bowl representative.

But after two games, it’s premature to start making plans for a February trip to Sin City. To crown these Dolphins. To call them an elite team in the AFC.

The Dolphins are a team on the rise to be sure. But if they are going to reach the mountaintop, there’s still some climbing to do.