Deshaun Watson injury throws wrench into 2023 NFL playoff race: Here are 14 teams projected to make postseason

If we learned one thing from Week 10, it’s that the NFL playoff picture can be turned upside down in an instant. 

Going into Week 10, the Bills and Bengals were both squarely in the playoff picture, but with both teams losing, they’re now on the outside looking in. Also, injuries can have a huge impact on the playoff race, which the Browns found out the hard way on Wednesday when they lost Deshaun Watson to a season-ending shoulder injury. 

So what does all of that mean for the playoff race? That’s what we’re going to answer right now in this week’s playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the 2023 NFL season, and using those numbers, we’re going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field. 

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s playoff projections.

AFC playoff projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Bengals (48.6%), Chargers (28%), Bills (20.7%), Colts (14.6%), Jets (7.7%), Raiders (7.4%), Broncos (6.9%),  Titans (3.5%), Patriots (0.1%).

NFC playoff projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Buccaneers (43.3%), Falcons (16.2%), Packers (9.9%), Rams (8.7%), Commanders (5.2%), Bears (0.6%), Panthers (0.1%), Giants (0.1%), Cardinals (0.0%). 

Note: The Cardinals aren’t technically eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them. 

Wild-card round projection

AFC

(7) Steelers at (2) Ravens(6) Browns at (3) Dolphins(5) Texans at (4) Jaguars

Bye: Chiefs

NFC 

(7) Vikings at (2) Lions(6) Seahawks at (3) 49ers(5) Cowboys at (4) Saints

Bye: Eagles