Derry’s Week 7 NFL Picks: Saints or Jaguars on short week? Dolphins-Eagles get top billing

If anyone who doesn’t bet on a regular basis wanted a perfect snapshot of what it’s like to be near perfect but still come away with your head barely above water for any given week, then we present Exhibit A with last week’s column.

For the 15-game schedule in Week 6, we were 13-2 straight up, and that included Philly coach Nick Sirianni’s incredibly boneheaded give away at the end of the Eagles’ loss at the Jets – which cost me a 5-0 week with best bets and an incredible payday in real life on a money-line parlay (but I’m not bitter or anything). However, we were 7-7 in our against-the-spread picks, being on the wrong side of a couple of hooks and missing by one point on two others.

In other words, the difference between an incredible week and an average one – or an average one and a terrible one – sometimes is miniscule. No matter how good you are or perfect your breakdowns might be, even the best of the best need a little luck.

Hence, our best advice for the past decade worth of columns remains the same today: Only bet what you can afford to lose. It took me a while to understand that, but it hurts much less now when a coach reads an analytics card and screws up your entire week in 2 minutes.

With that, we move on to Week 7, where we hope we are on the right side of the hook and the one-point gut punches.

NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of late Wednesday evening) are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com. Home team is listed in CAPS.

WEEK 7: THE TOP 5 BEST BETS

Byes: Carolina, Cincinnati,Dallas, Houston, NY Jets and Tennessee.

1, PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) over Miami / Sunday at 7:20 p.m.

This seems like a ridiculously low line to me. I get the Aunt Mabel adoration for the Dolphins because they have the most fun offense to watch since, well, the Chiefs and the Bills and Sean Payton’s Saints and Tom Brady’s Patriots and Peyton Manning’s Broncos and, well, you get it.

Mike McDaniel is all the rave … this week. What happens when they get figured out and Tua and/or Tyreek gets hurt? How about if they just play a team worth a damn? Sure, it’s not their fault their schedule has been uber easy, but how much credit do they get for beating up on the Broncos, Giants and Panthers, who have a combined record of 2-16?

Meanwhile, the Eagles are pissed, and they haven’t lost to an AFC team in the regular season since falling to the Chargers, 27-24, on Nov. 7, 2021 – just shy of 2 years ago. Yeah, I’ll take the better team at home who’s riled up and giving less than a field goal.

Score: Eagles 27, Dolphins 23 (Total: Under 51.5)

2, Teaser, Detroit (+9) over BALTIMORE / Sunday at noon / AND SEATTLE -2 over Arizona / Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -120 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.

I’ll be the first to admit it appears as if I was a little weak on the Lions. While I still don’t think they’re world beaters, and I think they still have work to do to catch up to San Francisco and Philadelphia – and maybe even Dallas – in the NFC, they have the potential to finally break that long string of not winning a playoff game.

We’re a long way from that this year, but it’s tough to see this game being a blowout. And if I have the chance to grab Detroit where they essentially just have to either win or remain within one score, I’ll jump on it.

Score: Lions (+3) 24, Ravens 20 (Total: Over 43)

The experts will tell you if you’re going to tease a favorite, make sure they go through the key numbers of 7, 6 and especially 3. This checks all the boxes in a game the Seahawks should have little trouble putting away.

Oh, and remember when some of the talking heads were telling you: “Hey, the Cardinals aren’t that bad, are they?” Yeah, we never said that. Rather, we reminded you their starting quarterback has been in the league for 7 years and has one NFL victory.

Score: Seahawks (-8) 28, Cardinals 13 (Total: Under 44.5)

3, NEW ORLEANS (-1) over Jacksonville / Thursday at 7:15 p.m.

So this is the first time I have put the Saints winning and covering in best bets since Week 8 of last season, and they just so happened to shut out the Raiders back then.

Here, in this roller-coaster season, no one wants to touch this team either way, while Average Drunk Joe thinks the Jaguars are suddenly a Super Bowl contender. Of course, ADJ is a little scared to bet this game because he isn’t sure if Trevor Lawrence is going to play. (And if he does play, he will do so with a large brace on his left knee, which will help speed up an already speedy defense against him. That, and several other injuries are affecting Jacksonville.)

It might be hard to believe, but the last time the Saints lost to the Jags, it came despite the “River City Relay,” as a bunch of guys wearing white jerseys with fleur-de-lis on their helmets lateraled back to one another until Jerome Pathon found a lane to the end zone and scored a touchdown well after the final gun sounded. Yep, it seemed to give New Orleans a miracle tie in that December 2003 game – with a chance to win in overtime and take a step toward a playoff berth.

But you know the Saints only lose games that end in miracles. This one was no different – John Carney missed the extra point (“HOW COULD HE DO THAT?!?”), and Jacksonville held on, 20-19. I was there. I remember it well. I wanted you to re-live it with me.

Remember last week when we told you Houston had never lost to the Saints in Houston? Well, New Orleans has never lost to the Jaguars in the Dome (and they have won five of seven in the series).

No reason to think this one will be different. The Saints are headed back to the roller coaster and back home following a four-out-of-five stretch of road games. Meanwhile, not enough is being made about how this could be the flat spot for the Jags (even if they are healthy) after sandwiching a home game against a division opponent they always beat at home in the Colts that came following a 10-day stay in London.

Everything points to the Saints here, whether or not Lawrence plays. And Derek Carr haters? This is the perfect spot for him to beat a roughed-up secondary.

Score: Saints 26, Jaguars 17 (Total: Over 40 – yes that 12-game under streak gets broken, too)

4, Atlanta (+3 at -130) over TAMPA BAY / Sunday at noon

First off, let me make it clear I hate taking +2½s, which in turn has me advocating paying the juice to get that extra point. I also will make it clear I do not put anything in the best bets I do not play myself. And what I likely will do is play the Falcons ML (at +118) and +3 in separate bets for the same amount (one unit each).

With that, I will continue to say what I have been saying since the Bucs were 1-0: They continue to get way too much respect from oddsmakers. Seems like they do just enough to keep getting a number that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

Oh, and here’s a guarantee: The Falcons are celebrating the end of the Tom Brady era. Not only did they lose the first five against Brady with him as a Buc, but they were well on their way to making it a clean sweep at six until Brady took the second half off in the season finale this past January.

Desmond Ridder played his best game as a rookie in that one and won it with help from Tyler Allgeier, who rushed for 135 yards that day.

Here, the Falcons are a better team than they were in January, while the Bucs are much worse. (Hence, why I like the money line.) Now, if only Arthur Smith can remember he has a guy named Bijan Robinson in his backfield. Duh.

One thing for sure whether I get this right or not: We know the NFC South can’t go 0-4 again this week!

Score: Falcons 23, Bucs 17 (Total: Over 37.5)

5, LA Chargers (+5.5) over KANSAS CITY / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

I don’t love this number, and I won’t actually play it until either Sunday or it hits +6 – whichever comes first. However, recent history in this series tells me this will be close.

Although the Chargers are 2-3, that’s a highly misleading record. They are capable of beating any team in the NFL on any given day, and they’re also capable of losing to any team in the NFL on any given day. And they know how to give games away better than anyone, too.

The thing is when they lose, it’s usually by a field goal. In fact, they haven’t lost by more than three points since falling 27-20 to the Raiders on Dec. 4 – a span of 11 games, including the playoffs.

Also, the Chargers have covered in five of the past six against the Chiefs, and the loss came in a six-point OT loss in December 2021. This should be close like the rest of them, and it would be no surprise at all if the Chargers won (or if they lost in heartbreak fashion).

Score: Chiefs 24, Chargers 22 (Total: Under 48)

OTHER PICKS

Sunday at noon

CHICAGO (+3) 22, Las Vegas 19: As I type this, I have no idea whether Justin Fields will play for the Bears or whether Jimmy Garoppolo will take the ball for the Raiders. In other words, this is a complete guess and a stay-away game.

I will say no matter who plays QB, I like the over, even though the Bears defense has been a little better as of late. Las Vegas’ D has been just OK, but they haven’t played as well away from home.

Should be fun, but I won’t put a cent on it. (Over 37.5)

INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) 17, Cleveland 16: I had the Browns originally picked here, but this seems like the trap of traps. San Francisco starts 5-0. San Francisco loses at Cleveland. Cleveland loses at Indianapolis. The NFL rarely makes sense – at least until January. And identifying what doesn’t make sense is what separates Average Joe from, well, me.

Or I could look like a dumb ass and ask myself, “What the hell were you thinking? Why didn’t you just go with your gut?”

I do think Deshaun Watson coming back (or not) is more of a distraction, at least for now. Oh, and while there isn’t a ton of history here, the Browns haven’t won in Indianapolis since 1994. I probably won’t play this unless I put the Colts in a last-minute teaser leg. (Under 40)

Washington (-2) 27, NY GIANTS 10: Speaking of possible last-minute teaser legs, the Commanders worked well in that spot last week. Here against their division rivals, I simply would rather buy Sam Howell over the fact all is right – or getting right – with the G-Men.

Watching the New York media this week, one radio personality I have come to really enjoy has been talking all week about how the Giants HAVE to be better now and that he’s not giving up on Brian Daboll. No, he’s nowhere near a bum like Joe Judge, Pat Shurmur and Ben McAdoo. Yeah, I’ll make sure to update you in a couple weeks when he changes his tune. (Under 39)

Buffalo (-8.5) 30, NEW ENGLAND 13: Yeah, I believed in the Bills last week and they burned me – or at least singed me. Here, this is one of the last games I would play on the card, so this is my best guess, anyway.

Bill Belichick knows how to dominate some foes – like the Jets – but he hasn’t had a whole lot of luck with the Bills, losing five of the past six against them with four of those coming by double digits. That’s enough for me to back Buffalo in this spot, whom I still believe beats the heck out of inferior teams maybe better than any other in the NFL. (Over 41)

Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

LA RAMS 22, Pittsburgh (+3) 21: Not only was my initial thought Rams here, but I had them as a best bet candidate. Then when I did the research, I see that Mike Tomlin is 12-4 straight up after a bye week. I hate when facts get in the way of a good pick.

So, instead I will just stay away and split the difference with a Rams win and Steelers cover. Aunt Mabel will be all over the Rams here because she hates the Pittsburgh offense. However, L.A. has a ton of injuries, and they may have trouble moving the ball, too.

Cooper Kupp is back, but he ain’t THAT good for me to jump on the side of the public and buck Tomlin in a key trend. (Under 44)

Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

Green Bay (-1) 31, DENVER 27: Another one I thought about putting up top, but I trust Jordan Love about as much as I trust Sean Payton right now. Hell, at some point soon the Broncos are going to wave the white flag, and none of us knows when that might be. I don’t want to be left holding the bag or flag when they do.

What the hell are you talking about, Derry? It’s like this: The Packers might not be very good, but the Broncos are less very good. Both defenses stink, and I might be tempted to play the over. (Over 45)

Monday at 7:15 p.m.

San Francisco 21, MINNESOTA (+7) 17: I’d like to lie and tell you I wasn’t going to play this, but I am a degenerate and it’s the only game on, so I will definitely play it – at least a little bit.

I know Kirk Cousins sucks in prime time, and the Vikings are without some of their weapons. That, and the 49ers are gonna be really mad and try to take it out on this week’s opponent. But I don’t like this spot here for San Fran, either. They have to come back to the Midwest after losing here last week, and Minnesota is fighting for their lives.

The 49ers are banged up enough for me to look at the big purple here, and we already know Joe Q. Public will be ALL OVER the Niners. The linesmakers are begging you to take them – making them -7 at even money. I’m not falling for it, no matter how dumb I look later. (Under 44)

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HOW WE DOIN’?

Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.

AGAINST THE SPREAD

Week 6 best bets: 4-1. Season top picks: 18-12 (.600).

Week 6 all picks: 7-7. Season all picks: 47-43 (.522).

STRAIGHT UP (no spread)

Week 6: 13-2. Season: 55-36 (.604).

OVER/UNDER TOTALS

Week 6: 9-6. Season: 55-36 (.604).

SAINTS PICKS

Week 6 pick: Texans 27, Saints 20. (Actual: Texans 20, Saints 13.) Straight up: W, 3-3. Against spread (Texans +1.5): W, 3-2. Total (Over 42.5): L, 4-2.

PREVIOUS COLUMNS

(click on week to view)

Week 6: 4-1 best bets; 7-7 ATS; 13-2 straight up; 9-6 over/unders

Week 5: 2-3 best bets; 8-6 ATS; 7-7 straight up; 9-5 over/unders

Week 4: 2-3 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 9-7 over/unders

Week 3: 2-3 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 7-8 straight up; 8-7 over/unders

Week 2: 4-1 best bets; 7-8 ATS; 9-7 straight up; 9-7 over/unders

Week 1: 4-1 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 11-4 over/unders

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