Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings: Prediction, odds, picks
1 year ago
Courtland Sutton #CourtlandSutton
The Denver Broncos (4-5) are slight favorites (-2.5) over the Minnesota Vikings (6-4) in a battle of two squads on winning streaks. The Broncos have taken three in a row, the Vikings five in a row.
The Broncos defeated the Buffalo Bills 24-22 in their last game, while the Vikings were victorious in their matchup against the New Orleans Saints 27-19.
Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Vikings and Broncos — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Will Hill.
Broncos vs Vikings Betting Information updated as of November 15, 2023, 6:34 PM ET. Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Broncos -2.5 -112 -108 42.5 -110 -110 Broncos vs. Vikings Prediction & Pick
Pick ATS: Minnesota (+2.5)
Pick OU: Over (42.5)
Prediction: Minnesota 26 – Denver 21
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill
The Broncos have morphed into an “Under” team.
After a historically bad start, they have played solid defense of late while recognizing their best path to winning games is running the ball and shortening the game, which is great for an Under.
They realize Russell Wilson is not the player he was a few years ago, and are game-planning accordingly. Last week they had 38 rushing attempts, and only 29 passing attempts, while Wilson was held under 200 yards in the air.
The Vikings defense has gone from bottom of the league in most categories last year to a unit that’s top-10 in the league in yards per play allowed (5.0).
Primetime Unders are an absurd 25-7 this year, and with the forecast currently calling for a 50 percent chance of rain, and wind possibly being a factor as well, that Under trend should continue Sunday night.
PICK: Under 43.5 points scored by both teams combined
Who will make the playoffs: Vikings, Broncos, Texans or Saints? How to Watch Denver vs. Minnesota
Game Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023
Time: 8:20 PM ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, Colorado
TV: Watch on NBC
Broncos vs. Vikings Recent Matchups
In their last five head-to-head bouts, Denver has beaten Minnesota three times.
Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Minnesota has scored 126 points, while Denver has accumulated 123.
Denver Betting Info
Denver has three wins in nine games versus the spread this season.
The Broncos have not covered the spread this season (0-3-1 ATS) when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
Denver has combined with its opponent to hit the over in 44.4% of its contests this year (four times over nine games with a set point total).
The Broncos have won 25% of the time they have played as moneyline favorites (1-3).
Denver has gone 1-3 when it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -135 or shorter (25%).
The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Broncos a 57.4% chance to win.
Russell Wilson has 1,806 passing yards in nine games this year, averaging 200.7 per game with a 67.9% completion percentage and 18 touchdowns (third in the NFL) against four interceptions.
He has also rushed for 231 yards (third on the Broncos) without scoring a touchdown on the ground, while averaging 25.7 rushing yards per game.
Courtland Sutton has caught 41 passes on 57 targets for 433 total yards and seven touchdowns. He is averaging 4.6 catches and 48.1 yards per game through nine games.
Javonte Williams’ output on the ground this season includes 436 yards with no rushing touchdowns. He is averaging 54.5 yards per game and 3.9 per attempt (24th in the NFL).
Williams has totaled 21 catches on 26 targets for 109 yards, with two receiving TDs.
Jaleel McLaughlin has rushed for 276 yards with one touchdown (30.7 yards per game in nine games).
McLaughlin has been targeted 16 times to the tune of 14 receptions, 69 yards and two TDs.
Defense
On the defensive side, Alex Singleton has 82 tackles and three TFL in 2023.
Jonathon Cooper has 39 tackles, three TFL, and 4.5 sacks this season.
Nik Bonitto has put up 23 tackles, nine TFL, and 5.5 sacks this year.
Zach Allen has 36 tackles, six TFL, three sacks, and one pass defended.
Minnesota Betting Info
Minnesota has covered the spread six times in 10 games with a set total.
So far this season, the Vikings have been installed as underdogs by a 2.5-point margin or more five times and are 3-1-1 ATS in those games.
Minnesota games have gone over the total three times this season.
This season, the Vikings have been the underdog five times and won three of those games.
Minnesota has a record of 3-2 in games where oddsmakers have them as underdogs of at least +114 on the moneyline.
Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Vikings have a 46.7% chance to win.
Joshua Dobbs has passed for 1,995 yards this year, with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is completing 63.6% of his passes while averaging 199.5 yards per game and 6 per attempt.
He’s added 368 yards on the ground (second on the Vikings), with five rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 36.8 yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.
Jordan Addison has 603 receiving yards and seven touchdowns (second in the NFL) on 45 receptions, while being targeted 66 times.
Through 10 games played this season, T.J. Hockenson has 71 catches (7.1 receptions per game on 9.5 targets per game) for 681 yards and four receiving touchdowns.
Alexander Mattison is scoreless on the ground, but has rushed for 461 total yards (3.5 per attempt and 46.1 per game).
Mattison has also caught 24 passes for 164 yards (sixth on the Vikings), with three receiving touchdowns. He’s been targeted 36 times and averages 16.4 yards per game.
Defense
Danielle Hunter has 48 tackles, 14 TFL, 11 sacks, and two passes defended in 2023.
Camryn Bynum has two interceptions on top of 83 tackles, two TFL, 0.5 sacks, and eight passes defended.
Josh Metellus has recorded one sack as well as five TFL, 63 tackles, and one interception in the 2023 season.
Harrison Smith has put up three sacks (third on the Vikings) to go with two TFL and 66 tackles through 10 games.
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