Democrats exceed expectations, but Republicans still poised to win House

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In today’s edition … A mostly smooth election night with signs of the legal battles to come … How state ballot measures on abortion, guns and slavery fared … but first …

The campaign About last night

Don’t call it a shellacking, but do call it a surprise.

The Senate is still in play and the House, while likely to flip Republican, is closer than expected.

Many races have yet to be called but the early results are disappointing for Republicans, who, before polls closed, were almost giddy at their prospects. As optimistic as Republicans were, Democrats were equally as pessimistic.

Until the results started to come in.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) had hoped to declare victory and Republican control of the House of Representatives Tuesday night, but early Wednesday morning, just after 2 a.m. EST., he called it a night during brief remarks, which lasted less than four minutes, to the crowd at his election night party in Washington.

He projected hope that “when you wake up tomorrow,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) “will be in the minority.”

Pelosi, meanwhile, said, “While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic Members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country.”

Both parties are surprised at the results so far.

“Wow is right,” one House Democratic aide texted.

A senior Republican aide said the results in many races were “not good.” Another senior GOP aide said they are still trying to figure out what happened.

Last week, Democratic sources began to temper expectations, reminding us that the midterm norm for the party in power is to lose 40 seats. Democrats said more than a month ago they expected to lose an open seat in Rhode Island that Republicans haven’t held in three decades. But the Democrat, Seth Magaziner, won.

At the same time, Republicans suggested Democrats in deep blue territory could fall and that they’d have a 20- to 30-seat margin in the House.

To be clear: Democrats still appear likely to lose control of the House as many races, including in California, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada remain undecided. But the final margins could be quite small.

(The latest House results are here.)

The Senate

Democrats still have a shot of maintaining control of the Senate.

They pulled off a victory in the critical state of Pennsylvania with John Fetterman’s win, picking off a Republican seat.

But races remain uncalled in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) warned that it could take days to know the election results. In Arizona, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) was leading his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, this morning in a tight race. Control of the chamber might not be determined until next month if the race between Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.) and his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, heads to a runoff, as appeared likely.

The race between Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and her Republican challenger, Kelly Tshibaka, is also uncalled, although it won’t affect control of the chamber.

(The latest Senate results are here.)

The results are a sharp contrast with the losses Democrats suffered in the midterms two years into Barack Obama’s presidency, when the party relinquished six Senate seats and more than 60 House seats — which Obama dubbed a “shellacking.”

Losing the House would still be an enormous blow to President Biden’s ability to move his agenda through Congress, even if Republicans hold a smaller majority than Democrats once feared.

Democrats suffered painful House losses with more potentially on the way.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, was trailing his Republican challenger, Mike Lawler. Maloney ran in a district that was mostly new territory after being reshaped by redistricting, but Biden carried the district by 10 points in 2020.

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), the only member of the committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol from a swing seat, also lost reelection.

But they won close races across the country and picked up seats in North Carolina, Ohio and elsewhere. (See more on this below.)

Here’s what else we know (and what we don’t):

We still don’t know if Republicans won the House. As of 6:30 a.m. Eastern, Republicans have won 194 House seats and are leading in 23 more. They need 218 seat to win control.

How many incumbents have lost their seats?

Just three so far. Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) and Luria are the only lawmakers in competitive races who lost their seats. Rep. Al Lawson (D-Fla.) was also defeated, but he was drawn into a new district that Donald Trump carried by 11 points in 2020, so his loss was expected.

Maloney and four other Democratic lawmakers — Reps. Tom O’Halleran (Ariz.), Tom Malinowski (N.J.), David Trone (Md.) and Cindy Axne (Iowa) — were trailing their challengers this morning. So were Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) and Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), although all of them could still win.

Most Republican gains came in open seats (some of which were open because Republicans had gerrymandered them to make it harder for Democrats to win). Republicans don’t need to defeat many incumbents to retake the House.

What happened in governors’ races?

Two vulnerable Midwestern Democrats — Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer — prevailed. Another Democrat, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, was leading her Republican opponent, Attorney General Derek Schmidt.

History was made in governors’ races. Sarah Sanders is the first woman elected as governor of Arkansas, Kathy Hochul the first woman elected to lead New York and Maura Healey is the first woman elected to govern Massachusetts and the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the country. Wes Moore is the first Black person elected governor in Maryland.

In Nevada, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, a Republican, was leading Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak in the governor’s race. In Oregon, Democrat Tina Kotek narrowly leads her Republican and independent rivals in a three-way race for governor. And in Arizona, Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state, leads Republican Kari Lake in the governor’s race.

Did any Republicans present on Jan. 6 win?

Derrick Van Orden, who traveled to Washington for Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally and was near the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was leading Brad Pfaff, a Democratic state senator, in the race for the seat held by retiring Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.). Pfaff denounced what he described as Van Orden’s participation in Jan. 6 — Van Orden has said he left once “it became clear that a protest had become a mob” — during the campaign.

Two other Republicans who were present on Jan. 6 lost their races. Here is how the election deniers did via The Post’s Amy Gardner.

Here are a few more results that caught our eye:

The survival of the moderates: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) won one of the toughest and most expensive reelection races in the country. She has campaigned as a moderate, and her seat was a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans.

New England is still tough terrain for Republicans: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) won reelection with relative ease. And Republicans aren’t on track to pick up any House seats in the region.  Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) won reelection. Reps. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) were leading their Republican challengers.

Democrats picked up a newly drawn seat in North Carolina: Democrat Wiley Nickel beat Trump-backed Republican Bo Hines in a newly drawn district evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Nickel ran as a moderate and focused on abortion.

A polling victory in a Kansas swing seat: When Theo was in Kansas last week, no one he spoke with trusted a recent New York Times-Siena College poll that showed Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) defeating her Republican challenger, Amanda Adkins, by 14 points. Davids herself called it “wildly optimistic.” But it seems Davids had cause for optimism: She defeated Adkins by about 12 points.

Democrats won all three competitive seats in Ohio: Democrat Emilia Sykes won in the open 13th District; Greg Landsman won in the 1st District, beating Chabot (as we mention above) and Rep. Marcy Kaptur fended off far-right opponent J.R. Majewski.

A smooth night with some isolated incidents © Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post Nov. 8 | Atlanta, Ga. Voters cast their ballot at the Piedmont Park Polling location.

Despite concerns about whether American democracy could withstand another test of its resiliency — two years after former president Donald Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election — Tuesday’s midterm elections went smoothly. There were some isolated incidents, including technical issues and routine human error, but no reports of widespread fraud or violence. Despite some right-wing influencers’ and Republicans’ attempts to sow discord, millions of Americans voted in a normal, routine process.

Here are the issues that arose:

Arizona: Vote-counting machines — a.k.a. tabulators — in nearly a quarter of Maricopa County’s voting locations were unable to read ballots because the formatting marks on the ballots weren’t being printed dark enough for the tabulators to read. Technicians traveled statewide to resolve the issue.

Florida and Missouri: Officials in both states prohibited Justice Department election monitors from entering polling places. Brad McVay, the chief counsel for the Florida Department of State, called the DOJ’s presence in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties “counterproductive.”

Georgia: Two Fulton County poll workers were fired fifteen minutes before the polls opened after election officials learned the pair were part of the mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Louisiana: Poll workers and voters were evacuated from the Kenner Discovery School in Kenner, La., after the campus received a bomb threat.

Michigan: Electronic poll books incorrectly identified some voters as having already been given absentee ballots. The minor technical glitch was quickly resolved, and voters were allowed to cast their ballots.

Texas: Federal District Judge Michael J. Truncale barred election officials from harassing and intimidating Black voters, after the Beaumont chapter of the NAACP filed a lawsuit claiming that the election officials engaged in discriminatory behavior during early voting.

A post-election litigation storm is brewing in battleground states across the country. We caught a glimpse of what’s to come in Pennsylvania and Arizona.  

Philadelphia: Republicans successfully sued Philadelphia election officials to reinstate a labor- and time-intensive process known as “poll book reconciliation,” to prevent double voting. The move is expected to delay the final vote count by days.

Arizona: A Maricopa County judge rejected a Republican lawsuit that would extend voting times by three hours and delay the release of early ballot numbers, arguing that Republicans were unable to show that voters had been disenfranchised.

Why it matters: Republicans and right-wing personalities used the day’s troubles — including the potential for delayed results — as evidence of widespread, systemic voter fraud. They are the same accusations Trump and his allies used to launch the effort to overturn the presidential election. This time, Trump took to Truth Social to make baseless claims of fraud in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Arizona GOP chair Kelli Ward falsely claimed that Maricopa County’s isolated technical issues were national, while Blake Masters mused that it was part of a grander Democratic scheme to disenfranchise Republican voters.

In the states Yup, it’s definitely Roevember © Damian Dovarganes/AP Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom, right, takes selfies with supporters at a turn out and vote YES on Proposition 1 rally at Long Beach City College in Long Beach, Calif., on Nov. 6, 2022. (Damian Dovarganes/AP Photo, File)

Voters in California, Vermont and Michigan, animated by the fall of Roe v. Wade, voted to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions Tuesday. The results indicate resounding support for abortion rights and an emerging path forward in post-Roe America. There were six abortion-related ballot measures this year — the most on record. Here are the results as of Wednesday morning:

Abortion

California (Proposition 1): Reproductive freedom.

Abortion rights side prevailed

Abortion rights side prevailed

Vermont (Proposal 5): Reproductive freedom.

Abortion rights side prevailed

Abortion rights side prevailed

Michigan (Proposal 3): Reproductive freedom.

Abortion rights side prevailed

Abortion rights side prevailed

Kentucky (Amendment 2): No right to abortion.

The antiabortion measure looked like it would be defeated as of early Wednesday morning.

The antiabortion measure looked like it would be defeated as of early Wednesday morning.

From state to state, voters also decided whether to make voting more accessible, outlaw slavery and adopt some of the most restrictive gun measures in the nation. Here are the results of those ballot measures:

Voting

Arizona (Proposition 309): Change voter ID laws.

The vote was close as of Wednesday morning, but with more votes in opposition.

The vote was close as of Wednesday morning, but with more votes in opposition.

Connecticut (Amendment 1): Allow early voting.

Yes prevailed

Michigan (Proposal 2): Promote the vote.

Yes prevailed

Nebraska (Initiative 432): Require photo ID to vote.

Yes prevailed

Ohio (Amendment 2): Require citizenship to vote in local elections.

Yes prevailed

Gun Control

Oregon (Measure 114): Gun control.

Remains too close to call.

Remains too close to call.

Slavery

Alabama (Constitutional Amendment): Remove racist language from the state constitution.

Yes prevailed

Louisiana (Amendment 7): Outlaw slavery.

No prevailed

Oregon (Measure 112): Outlaw slavery.

The measure was on its way to adoption as of early Wednesday.

The measure was on its way to adoption as of early Wednesday.

Tennessee (Amendment 3): Outlaw slavery.

Yes prevailed

Vermont (Proposal 2): Outlaw slavery.

Yes prevailed

What we’re watching

We expect a number of leadership races among House Republicans and Democrats to get underway immediately, as early as today. But some candidates may hold off a bit until control of the House is determined.

The Media

Early reeeads

From us:

From across the web:

Viral

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