David Ornstein’s January transfer window guide: The plans for the Premier League’s top teams

The winter transfer window opens on January 1 and clubs are finalising their targets for the moment the market opens.

Though there is always excitement around the January window, it’s not the same as the summer. Clubs do make moves to help their squads for the second half of the season, but there are generally not the same blockbuster moves that we get in the summer months.

Today, we ran my weekly question-and-answer session with our subscribers. Usually, we follow this up with a mailbag collating the best questions.

Instead, here, we’ll look at the state of play for the Premier League’s top sides going into January.

Arsenal

Recent years show Arsenal are not afraid of doing business in January and they will be alert again — depending on usual considerations such as injuries, profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) and opportunities in the window.

Last summer’s spending meant the signing of David Raya from Brentford needed to be done on loan with an option to buy (£27million; $34.2m), which shows Arsenal were in a tight spot around PSR. Once adequate finances are available, the Raya deal must be turned permanent.

Let’s see whether those finances are generated from existing resources or require player trading. Should it be the former, departures could presumably be used to enhance the budget. Should it be the latter, there is unlikely to be a huge amount of money at manager Mikel Arteta’s disposal.

The most obvious candidate to exit might be Aaron Ramsdale. Any goalkeeper in his position will want to regular football, especially given the desire to get into England’s Euro 2024 squad, though there have been no significant movements yet — nor are any certain to materialise.

While plenty of speculation has focused on Arsenal potentially recruiting a striker, that is more plausible in the summer. Nothing has developed regarding Ivan Toney and it would take a massive bid to change that, particularly with Bryan Mbeumo out for around three months with an ankle injury.

Even if Victor Osimhen, Benjamin Sesko and Evan Ferguson are among those admired by Arsenal (and many other clubs), it is not anticipated they will land at the Emirates Stadium soon.

Activity in midfield probably relies on somebody leaving or the fitness situation deteriorating. For both reasons, we should keep an eye on Thomas Partey and Jorginho — but it is more realistic to imagine their futures being decided after the campaign has ended.

Arsenal explored the idea of Martin Zubimendi of Real Sociedad 12 months ago and interest remains strong. However, multiple factors would have to combine to make it happen. Despite his contract including a release clause, the Spaniard would have to agree to go; that has been a stumbling block in the past and may prove a bigger problem given Real Sociedad are in the Champions League round of 16.

Cover at the back offers another dilemma. The absences of Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu at full-back — where Partey has also featured — arguably makes defence the area worthiest of strengthening but when everyone is fit, Arsenal are well stocked. So no guarantees but it would not be a total shock if there was a reinforcement here, perhaps on a short-term basis.

Liverpool

The priority for Liverpool last summer was to rebuild their midfield and that resulted in the arrivals of Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Wataru Endo and Ryan Gravenberch.

To owners whose model revolves around balancing the books and living within the club’s means, it was a significant outlay to deliver what they felt was needed for the team and squad.

By the end of the first window overseen by new sporting director Jorg Schmadtke, Liverpool had not failed to address any part of the pitch identified as requiring surgery.

They are contesting for four trophies this season and, despite a perception that Jurgen Klopp’s men still lack something, there seems no sense of internal alarm.

Things can change and Liverpool are always attentive to openings that may crop up — eg, Cody Gakpo last winter — but the forthcoming window is not anticipated to be particularly busy.

Joao Palhinha of Fulham has been linked but nothing is expected to emerge on this. Liverpool believe their midfield is in good shape and their normal profile would be different to that of the Portugal international, who is 28 and has a steep anticipated transfer fee.

When Liverpool found themselves trying to strengthen at No 6 and various options were explored, a call was made about the availability of Fluminense talent Andre Trindade. It did not work out for either party then and an alternative route was pursued, which removes him from the agenda now.

There are some more major decisions on the horizon as Joel Matip and Thiago reach the end of their contracts in June — at which point, pivotal figures Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold are due to enter the last 12 months of their terms at Anfield.

Aston Villa

It is turning into a dream season for Aston Villa, with Unai Emery’s men among the early Premier League title challengers and through to the Europa Conference League knockout phase as group winners.

The club’s ambitious owners have backed Emery handsomely and you suspect they will continue to do so, with many wondering if January will be used to improve the side again.

No doubt such discussions are taking place at Villa Park, too, but the excitement might be worth keeping a lid on because incoming activity is expected to be limited.

There could be an acquisition on loan, though even that remains undecided and if Villa ultimately view it as being unnecessary, they will proceed with the players who have got them to this point.

Will another striker be sought to ease the goalscoring burden on the shoulders of Ollie Watkins? Is there substance in whispers about Emery seeking another winger? At right-back, it is noticeable that Matty Cash has been a less frequent starter recently than he was in the past.

Whatever the answers to these questions, a relatively quiet window is anticipated in terms of arrivals. The more interesting element may be exits. Villa were unsuccessful in their attempts to shift Leander Dendoncker last summer and would be open to the prospect again. Bertrand Traore could be on his way out as well and there is also a good chance that Calum Chambers departs.

Manchester City

Results might have taken a turn for the worse of late but Manchester City are the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and European Super Cup holders, they play the Club World Cup final on Friday and have constructed a squad that is the envy of most other teams in the game.

Furthermore, the club tend to focus their recruitment on the summer rather than January, with only Maximo Perrone and Julian Alvarez acquired in the previous two winter markets.

It will therefore come as little surprise to learn that no senior signings are planned for Pep Guardiola’s side during the approaching window.

As is the case elsewhere, the most newsworthy movement at the Etihad Stadium could prove to be in the opposite direction. The idea of Kalvin Phillips leaving on loan is well-documented and the early frontrunners for his signature are Juventus, who have notified City of their interest.

Newcastle United are yet to decide whether they will push for Phillips, while Crystal Palace are among those from the English top flight and abroad to make enquiries.

Unforeseen activity should never be discounted — remember when The Athletic revealed Joao Cancelo’s temporary switch to Bayern Munich? — but there is nothing spectacular on the cards.

The next 18 months carry far greater importance as a vital call looms on Kevin De Bruyne. His contract expires in June 2025, when he will be 34, and both parties must ponder whether or not to extend his stay. Whatever is decided will have a profound effect on their squad construction heading to the future.

Tottenham Hotspur

Injuries and suspensions have afflicted a Tottenham squad that was already a work in progress, so head coach Ange Postecoglou and the hierarchy will aim to keep building in January.

Spurs — like the majority of their rivals — will be operating on a tight budget, but it does not prevent them transfers; they will just need to be creative.

The priority is a centre-back and a lot of work is being done. Names such as Nice’s Jean-Clair Todibo are in the public domain but it is doubtful the France international defender will join Spurs this winter.

Their approach to other positions — such as a midfielder and wide attacker — will be determined once there is further clarity on when Rodrigo Bentancur, James Maddison, Giovani Lo Celso and Manor Solomon will regain fitness and also whether funds can be generated via exits.

A frustration for Spurs last summer was the difficulty they encountered in trying to shift personnel who were surplus to requirements. Offers for Eric Dier will be entertained — or he will go as a free agent in June — and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg might depart if suitable proposals are received.

Newcastle United

If injuries have taken a toll on Tottenham, their impact on Newcastle has been even worse. That is predominantly why the club are assessing all parts of the pitch for potential reinforcement.

PSR is an acute concern at St James’ Park, though they have room to manoeuvre in January and there is a fair chance some business occurs — especially as Eddie Howe bids to lead his men to Champions League qualification for a second consecutive season.

Nick Pope’s absence shines a bright light on the goalkeeping department and Newcastle must choose whether to stick with Martin Dubravka or dip into the market. It is hard to ignore Ramsdale’s situation at Arsenal, particularly given he played under Howe at Bournemouth, but there has been no contact between the teams and it would be a complicated deal.

You suspect Newcastle would favour loans. However, what player of appropriate quality will be gettable on that basis? Are teams willing to help a rival and do they have a decent replacement? A free agent, such as David de Gea, has been mooted, but do you want them? Do they want you? Would their salary be compatible with your wage structure?

The returns of Sven Botman and Dan Burn ease the pressure at centre-back, while the need for a midfielder amid Sandro Tonali’s ban could also be allayed by the rise of Lewis Miley. If Newcastle do elect to address that area, Phillips is an option and Conor Gallagher remains of interest.

Regarding those two examples, Newcastle have yet to progress on a potential loan for Phillips while Chelsea would only contemplate selling Gallagher — and at a price reflecting his elevated status — that suitors might not be keen on (or capable of) doing in the forthcoming window.

Despite many of Newcastle’s problems requiring short-term solutions, they are not averse to bringing forward permanent activity that had been identified for next summer. The Saudi-led regime prepares for future windows and that may enable them to act sooner without breaking financial rules, owing to the minimal impact of five or six extra months on amortisation.

Manchester United

The wait continues for a 25 per cent investment in Manchester United by INEOS to be officially announced and until that happens, there is uncertainly hanging over operations at Old Trafford.

Even when the proposed transaction is signed and confirmed, there will be an estimated six-to-eight-week wait for the Premier League’s owners’ and directors’ test. In that period, INEOS — which is expected to take sporting control — would have the power to influence but not execute.

The timing is far from ideal and it will inevitably impact United’s approach to this window, as will a PSR position that is said to be particularly tight following another summer of sizeable investment.

There is an appetite to do business — another striker and a right-sided centre-back are on the shopping list — but indications suggest it needs to be low-cost, on loan or facilitated by exits.

If, for example, Anthony Martial can be sold it would free up financial and squad space for Erik ten Hag’s front line to be strengthened. It is a similar case in defence, should Raphael Varane depart.

The most pressing issue requiring a resolution is that of Jadon Sancho. If the winger is not going to be reintegrated, United desperately need to raise money for him. There are reports that they have discussed terminating his contract, which would be extremely costly and surely a last resort.

Chelsea

The three windows since a consortium led by Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital took over at Chelsea in May 2022 have been nothing short of remarkable — will January 2024 follow suit?

It is not going to be quiet at Stamford Bridge, with the hierarchy still in the process of building the squad. They would prefer judgment be reserved until the end of next summer.

In the coming weeks, we can expect a forward to be recruited. It could even be that an agreement is reached in the winter for a player to arrive once the season finishes. Everyone can see goalscoring has been problematic and whether it be an established striker or a versatile attacker, a top name or someone of lower profile, that is the main focus of their attention.

As reported, Toney is not believed to be as high on Chelsea’s recruitment list as some have claimed — but until a firm target emerges they will assess multiple options and, given the paucity of elite players in this role, similar candidates are being studied by many clubs.

With Thiago Silva entering the final six months of his contract and not expected to be retained beyond that, more activity at centre-back is anticipated. Chelsea seem to be happy with their two goalkeepers and have greater depth in midfield than any other area.

This is partly why offers for Gallagher might be listened to, with Tottenham and Newcastle still among his admirers. Gallagher has 18 months left on his terms and ordinarily, a fresh deal would be signed or a sale countenanced. The latter scenario would represent pure accounting profit and that could influence Chelsea’s decision, for the benefits it offers to their transfer kitty and PSR calculation.

There will be other exits — possibly Trevoh Chalobah, for instance — but the idea is to use loans only for emerging talents in need of senior experience. That does not include Noni Madueke.

(Top photo: Getty Images)