D.C.-area forecast: Not as cold the next few days with a few flakes possible; looking stormy Christmas Eve into Christmas Day

Today (Sunday): Could see a few light rain or snow showers during the morning hours, maybe with a touch of sleet, as a weak system tracks mainly to our south. Not expecting any problems with temperatures heading above freezing, rising through the 30s this morning under mostly cloudy skies. Skies brighten just a bit this afternoon, as highs reach the low to mid-40s with a light wind from the south. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Skies continue mostly cloudy through the evening and overnight, with the possibility for a few areas of fog toward morning. Should any fog come to fruition, it could be freezing fog as lows drop to the upper 20s and low 30s, which could make some surfaces a little slick. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Monday): Plan to check for any slick spots first thing in the morning from the possible freezing fog. Otherwise, we’re in a break between systems, so while plenty of clouds remain, we should at least manage partly sunny skies. The chill comes off, too, with highs back to near or even a bit above normal, in the mid-40s to near 50. Winds are light from the west and southwest. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: A quick-moving system diving toward us from the Great Lakes doesn’t have much energy or moisture to work with, but it could still produce a few evening rain or snow showers. Skies could start to clear overnight, with lows falling to the low to mid-30s. Confidence: Medium

A look ahead

Winds may get a bit blowsy on Tuesday as high pressure starts to move in, breezing in from the west and northwest around 10-20 mph. Skies turn partly to mostly sunny with highs around 45-50. Not bad for the latter half of December around here. Tuesday night should be mostly clear with lows dropping to the upper 20s and low 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

We’ll look for lighter winds on Wednesday, starting to come from the south by afternoon. Mostly sunny skies early could see increasing clouds by afternoon as highs continue around 45-50. Confidence: Medium-High

The forecast gets more interesting as we get toward and into the holiday, with a large system likely to move through from the west. Showers seem likely at some point Thursday (Christmas Eve), with a period of heavy rain possible Thursday night. Temperatures should climb through the 50s on Thursday with breezy winds from the south and potentially surge to near 60 by evening. Confidence: Low-Medium

But a cold blast arrives late Thursday night into Friday (Christmas Day) as gusty winds blow from the west and northwest. That could turn the rain to a little snow before ending early Friday (perhaps just enough flakes for some wonderful background mood on Christmas Day). Friday temperatures may hover in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Snow potential index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

1/10 (↑): It’s “bah, humbug” for now, with only the potential for some mood flakes this morning and tomorrow evening. Watching the chance of a little snow, on the back end of a mild rainstorm, Thursday night into Friday (Christmas Day).

Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.