Cyclones, media frenzies and a key conversation: why Annastacia Palaszczuk changed her mind about leaving

In the end, cyclone season decided it.

To anyone outside of Queensland, cyclone season means an interrupted holiday, or regular news breaks of locals paddling down the main street in tinnies.

For Queensland leaders, it’s the ultimate in optic politics. Standing up with emergency services brass to reassure the state that this disaster won’t be the one to break the people they breed tough, north of the border.

No one understood this better than Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Getting briefings on Cyclone Jasper, the 63rd natural disaster she had faced in her nine years as premier, Palaszczuk understood what the coming summer would mean.

So did those around her: a lot of time in front of the cameras. If you’re going to introduce a new leader to Queensland, there is no better time than when everyone is looking for leadership.

Conversations about a succession plan – which had been simmering since at least the Labor national conference in August – were becoming increasingly pointed.

Until recently, Palaszczuk had been resisting the calls to move on. Her thoughts had been that she had faced tough times before, had been written off before, and had managed to pull off the win. Being underestimated was one of her political super powers.

But she didn’t expect the media frenzy that followed her on holiday to Rome.

The experience, in late August, shook her. Having previously mostly holidayed at the same Queensland beach with her family, Palaszczuk’s breaks had rarely made news. But being greeted by photographers as she travelled Rome with her partner, Dr Reza Adib, left its mark.

Her team attempted a “fight back” upon her return. There was the campaign-style video mapping out her childhood and dedication to public life, based in the lessons of her family. Burned by headlines proclaiming her as the “red carpet premier”, her public appearances became more grounded.

But as the Christmas break approached, Palaszczuk was said to be worried she would once again be “hounded” by the media. Already exhausted by a bruising political year, and facing more and more calls to announce her future, the idea of spending her break dodging cameras and questions, and then returning to the same, weighed heavily on her.

As has been reported, influential union leader Gary “Blocker” Bullock held a meeting with Palaszczuk last week, the night before she left for Canberra for national cabinet. That conversation had been two months in the making, with factional powerbrokers bedding down support, ensuring there were enough numbers behind a switch, before moving forward.

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Bullock, who leads the left faction in Queensland and the aligned United Workers Union, impressed upon Palaszczuk the need to make a decision. And soon. The left controls the numbers in Queensland and despite Palaszczuk being from the right faction, Bullock’s influence can’t be denied.

But the ball was left in Palaszczuk’s court. After nine years and three election wins, she was respected enough not to be shoved. The numbers were there if it were needed. But that trigger wasn’t pulled.

Many within Labor thought the decision would not come until the new year. But looking around the national cabinet table, and seeing all the new faces, Palaszczuk realised renewal was already taking place. Only ACT leader Andrew Barr knew what it was like to lead through the pandemic. Her conversation with Bullock weighing heavily on her mind, she made her decision.

With cyclone season coming, it was time for a new face for the state to turn to. Her last update on Cyclone Jasper was also the last press conference she would ever hold. And wanting to keep the news her own, she let no one know. Many members of her caucus, including senior ministers in her cabinet, discovered her resignation news though Guardian Australia’s story announcing her decision.

In the end, Palaszczuk made her decision in order to have influence over who her successor would be. Waiting into the new year would have taken that influence out of her hands. She immediately endorsed deputy Steven Miles, who is now locked in a battle with health minister Shannon Fentiman and potentially treasurer Cameron Dick for the top job.

The only thing for certain is that come cyclone season, it’ll be a new leader standing up with the emergency services, guiding Queensland through yet another turbulent weather system or three.

As for Palaszczuk? She’s looking forward to blue skies and calm waters both this December-January and beyond.