Crossrail to finally open; German exports to Russia plunge; climate protests at Barclays AGM – business live
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German exports to Russia have tumbled to their lowest in almost two decades, as the Ukraine war hits the European economy.
Sales to Russia sank nearly two-thirds to about €860m in March, with overall German exports also dropping in an early sign of the economic impact of the Ukraine war on Europe’s largest economy.
And with a ban on Russian oil looming, trade pressures could intensify.
Total German exports dropped by 3.3% month-on-month in March, the latest data from statistics body Destatis this morning shows.
Exports to Russia were particularly hit, sinking over 60% compared with February, due to sanctions imposed as a result of the Ukraine invasion, and “unsanctioned behaviour of market participants”, Destatis reports.
Looking ahead, despite richly filled order books, the short-term outlook for German exports doesn’t look encouraging, warns ING’s Carsten Brzeski:
New lockdowns in China and a continuation of, instead of easing, last year’s supply chain disruptions will leave significant marks on German industry. According to a recent Ifo survey, almost half of all German companies are dependent on imports from China. Also, the war in Ukraine is very likely to disrupt other supply chains for good.
More generally, with a high risk that the war accelerates the trend of deglobalization and high energy and commodity prices for longer, the German export sector is facing more headwinds ahead.
German imports, though, rose 3.4% during the month — suggesting that supply chain frictions didn’t hamper goods coming in.
Notably, imports from Russia into Germany only fell by 2.4% to €3.6bn, as oil and gas continued to flow.
But that could change soon, with the EU outlining a phased oil embargo on Russia over its war in Ukraine, as well as sanctioning Russia’s top bank and banning Russian broadcasters from European airwaves.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced the proposals in a speech in the European parliament.
This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined. We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimises the impact on global markets.
This is why we will phase out Russian supply of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year.
Related: Russia-Ukraine war: EU proposes ban on all Russian oil imports; Zelenskiy says trapped civilians at Azovstal must be saved – live
The move is an attempt to “break the Russian war machine”, after Germany dropped its opposition, our Brussels bureau explains:
A proposal to phase in a prohibition on Russian oil imports will be discussed by member state ambassadors in Brussels on Wednesday, with the most dependent, such as Slovakia and Hungary, seeking exemptions.
Those championing the ban have been bolstered by a change in approach in Germany, where reliance on Russian oil has been reduced from 35% at the end of last year to 12%.
The German economics minister, Robert Habeck, has called on EU member states to show “solidarity with Ukraine” and “do their bit”
Related: European Council president ‘confident’ of imminent sanctions on Russian oil
Elsewhere today
The UK’s cost of living squeeze has intensified, with household goods prices rising by the fastest rate in more than 15 years.
Non-food inflation jumped to 2.2% in April, from 1.5% in March, as soaring energy costs, the widerimpact of the war in Ukraine, and Covid lockdowns in China, pushed up prices.
Related: Ukraine war and China lockdowns drive fastest UK price rises in years
Staff at the UK’s City watchdog are striking today in a dispute over pay and working conditions.
Unite members at the Financial Conduct Authority will hold a two-day walkout, over changes to pay, terms and conditions which it says have left thousands of FCA staff worse off.
Online grocery group Ocado could face a shareholder revolt today at its annual general meetings. Some shareholders, including Royal London Asset Management, are opposing plans to extend a pay package that could give top bosses up to £20m per year for five years.
European markets are set for a subdued start, as investors brace for the Federal Reserve to (probably) hike US interest rates later today.
The agenda