Could Bobby McCain be an offseason cap casualty for Dolphins?
Bobby #Bobby
Miami Dolphins free safety Bobby McCain appeared to alleviate some of the questions about his ability to man the high post in the Dolphins defense in 2020 — a welcomed development after an underwhelming 9 game stint as Miami’s free safety in 2019 after Brian Flores’ coaching staff transitioned him from cornerback to safety to start the team’s rebuilding effort two seasons ago. McCain wasn’t perfect; his impact in coverage was somewhat marginal with just 6 passes defensed all season (1 interception, 5 PBUs) and another season with a missed tackle rate in excess of 10%. Over McCain’s last three seasons (39 games), McCain has logged the following rate of missed tackles per season:
2018: 15.3%
2019: 28.6%
2020: 11.5%
But McCain was applauded for his communication skills as the quarterback of the secondary this season none the less and had appeared to position himself as a safe incumbent going into this offseason. That is, of course, until a report came out at the end of January that Miami may be mulling changes to the safety room.
Could McCain find himself on the chopping block?
His contract situation doesn’t help his case. McCain enters this offseason with two years remaining on his current contract, which will carry him through the end of the 2022 season. McCain will enter the 2021 season at 28 years old, making him one of the elder players on the Dolphins’ current roster — and he’s paid as such. Over the next two years, McCain is scheduled to receive $13.4M in new money and will account for salary cap hits of $7.14M in 2021 and $7.74M in 2022.
In just about every measure of free safety contracts, McCain will rank in the top ten going into next season. McCain is 10th in 2021 cap hit, 8th in new cash due, 7th in base salary and 9th in percentage against the cap.
The Dolphins may ultimately ask themselves if they’re paying for that level of a safety, should they expect that level of production? And if the answer is yes, McCain may find himself on the move this offseason. The Dolphins can cut McCain after June 1st and save $6.4M against the salary cap in 2021; he’s one of the more prominent cap savings candidates across the roster.
A Dolphins upgrade here may also come with an equal or higher price tag if the Dolphins deem it necessary. For example, Broncos safety Justin Simmons played last season on the franchise tag but has yet to iron out a long-term extension. He’s expected to command somewhere around $15M per season — a premiere price tag. But when you consider the cap savings of transitioning away from McCain, you’re talking about a much more digestible addition against the cap (exactly how much for 2021 would be dependent on how Miami structured the guaranteed money) and much better production.
Simmons logged 5 interceptions (including a game-winner against Miami), had 9 passes defensed and had an equal missed tackle rate to McCain in 2020. But even tackling, Simmons had missed tackle rates in 2019 and 2018 that were at 8%.
This is just the most high-priced option, too. Miami could opt for a rookie in the draft such as Central Florida’s Richie Grant and save significant money (with more high-variance results) or pursue another young safety in free agency, like Rams safety John Johnson. Johnson is projected to carry an annual average salary of $8.3M per season by Spotrac — and he’s a younger version of McCain at safety with better tackling skills.
There’s no shortage of options if the Dolphins decide to shift gears at free safety. But the team will need to have their ducks in a row if they’re going to shift away from McCain, one of the vocal leaders of the defense in 2020.
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