Conservative leadership race: 49% of Tory backers say Rishi Sunak has what it takes to be a good PM

Nearly half of Conservative supporters believe Rishi Sunak has what it takes to become Britain’s Prime Minister, a new poll reveals.

As the 160,000 members of the Tory party prepare to start voting in the Tory leadership contest from Monday, the exclusive survey by Ipsos shows that 49 per cent of Conservative backers said the former Chancellor would make a good premier compared to 40 per cent for rival Liz Truss.

Among Conservative voters in the 2019 general election, Mr Sunak enjoys an even bigger lead over the Foreign Secretary with 49 per cent saying Mr Sunak has what it takes for the top job compared to 35 per cent for Ms Truss.

Among the general public, just over a third of people said Mr Sunak would make a good Prime Minister compared to just 24 per cent for Ms Truss.

Crucially, however, polls of the Tory members who will actually make the decision on the party’s next leader and the country’s new Prime Minister by September 5 show Ms Truss is way ahead of Mr Sunak.

The former Chancellor hopes his plan to slash income tax to 16p in the pound by 2029 will help him turn his campaign around as the rivals prepare for the second of 12 hustings events with party activists in Exeter on Monday evening. They are also hoping his appeal with the broader public may convince wavering Conservatives he is best placed to take on Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at the next general election, expected in 2024.

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said “Team Sunak will hope these findings can help cause a rethink amongst Conservative Party members as the available evidence suggests he is behind at the moment. However, it should be noted that Truss has significantly narrowed the gap with Conservative supporters since April, meaning he might not hold even this advantage forever”.

The Ipsos poll shows that while both Conservative leadership hopefuls are ahead of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, neither has managed to open up a clear lead over the Labour leader.

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Asked whether Sir Keir or the former Chancellor would make the most capable premier, the pair were locked on 39 per cent each. In a head to head between Ms Truss and the Labour leader on the same question Sir Keir was ahead on 41 per cent compared to 35 per cent. On the same measure Sir Keir led Mr Johnson by 51 per cent to 31 per cent – a 20 point lead.

To underline the scale of the challenge facing whoever takes over in September the Ipsos survey showed Labour stretching its lead over the Conservatives to 14 points in July – an increase of 3 points from June.

Mr Pedley added: “After winning over Conservative members, the new Prime Minister will need to win over the public too. These numbers suggest this will be a challenge, given the Conservatives are significantly behind in the polls and neither Truss or Sunak lead Starmer on who would make the most capable Prime Minister. However, neither are far enough behind so as not to think they cannot lead him in the future.”

While the Ipsos data might give Mr Sunak’s camp a much needed lift, the polling firm noted Ms Truss’s ratings as a good potential Prime Minister had increased by 11 points since January, while positive views of her rival were little changed (though improved from his dip in April). That, Ipsos said, suggested that Mr Sunak’s lead could be at least partly down to recognition given his former role as Chancellor during the pandemic.

For Labour the poll also shows how Sir Keir may still be failing to cut through with the public despite the turmoil at the top of the Tory party with 49 per cent saying they didn’t know what the leader of the opposition stood for – down from 53 per cent in June but slightly worse than ahead of former Labour leader Ed Miliband in 2013.

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,052 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 21st-27th July 2022. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.