Colts Coaching Decisions Prove Costly

Sometimes, NFL analytics be damned.

Sometimes, the smart play is the safe play.

That reality couldn’t have been more obvious after the Indianapolis Colts lost 27-24 to the Buffalo Bills in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Playoff game.

The Colts lost by a field goal that they should have had if head coach Frank Reich decided to kick on fourth-and-goal at the Bills’ 4 in the second quarter. They had expected to score on third down with an outside pitch to running back Jonathan Taylor, who was swarmed for a 3-yard loss.

While Reich said afterward he was unsure of the analytics before that decision, he thought the percentages favored going for a touchdown on the fourth-and-goal play at the 4. Quarterback Philip Rivers had an open receiver in Michael Pittman Jr. on a crossing route in the end zone, but the pass was overthrown by about a foot.

The Colts led 10-7 when they came up empty, then the Bills drove for a go-ahead score on the ensuing drive for a 14-10 halftime lead.

“It was an interesting exchange,” Reich said. “We had the two-minute timeout, so we had a lot of time to talk about it on the sideline, what we were thinking, what we were going to do. One thought was to put our goal-line personnel in there and jam it up the middle.”

When the pitch failed, Reich immediately thought about how they should have run it up the middle. Then he decided to go for it on fourth down. There was some discussion, and Rivers was in favor of trying the pass to Pittman. The quarterback had hit on a similar play for a touchdown when he was with the Chargers and Reich was calling plays years ago. But this time, the pass was just a bit outside, and Rivers lamented missing the open rookie.

Coach Frank Reich is known for relying on analytics to be aggressive.

Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports

When the Colts scored to cut the deficit to 24-16 in the fourth quarter, Reich opted to take a PAT off the board and go for a two-point conversion after a Bills neutral-zone infraction moved the ball to the 1-yard line.

Again, the analytics say go for it. And that should be OK — if you can’t gain one yard in this situation, that’s not just on the coach but on the players. But Taylor was stuffed on an inside run.

“There are no gimmes in this league,” Reich said. “When you’ve got it at the 1, you can say, ‘Call it up the middle.’”

Regardless of the rationale, it didn’t work. And when these decisions fail, the coach should be second-guessed and criticized. His choices proved costly, especially not settling for the field goal.

Part of the problem was Reich’s inherent belief in his offense. The Colts had struggled in the red zone most of the season. They tied for 17th at 58.33%. This day, the Colts were just two-of-five (40%).

That gets a team beat in the playoffs, when the margin for error shrinks because the opposition is stronger.

Analytics should take into account a team’s strengths and weaknesses, and if the Colts’ percentages factored that into the equation, they were off the mark. The Colts have had short-yardage runs stuffed with regularity at different times. And the red-zone issues have been maddening.

Coaching decisions aren’t the only reasons why the Colts saw their season end. But the hope is that Reich will learn from this game. He won a Super Bowl as Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator to head coach Doug Pederson, who is known for going for it aggressively when old-school coaches wouldn’t.

But Reich needs to be better when walking the analytic fine line.

The Colts could have won this game. They outgained the Bills 472-397 in total yards and had the edge in time of possession, 34:17-25:43. The opportunity for an upset was there. It just came down to too many little mistakes, whether it was coaching or player execution.

Reich shrugged when reviewing his decision-making in those two situations.

“I don’t know,” he said. “I’ll have to go back and look. Obviously, I didn’t like that (second-quarter) exchange. It’s a 14-point swing.

“I’m going to have to go back and evaluate myself. It’s too fresh right now.”

Some fans are quick to vent about Reich’s mistakes, which include the ridiculous suggestion that the third-year coach should be fired.

Reich is still a good NFL coach and play-caller. He’s constantly evolving and learning, and fans should remember that the Colts improved four wins this season to 11-6 and they’ve made the playoffs in two of his three years.

Fact is, the Colts would have been a legitimate playoff team in 2019 if quarterback Andrew Luck didn’t retire.

Reich isn’t going anywhere. He and general manager Chris Ballard have the Colts headed in the right direction.

It’s a long offseason, but again, Reich hopefully will learn from what went wrong in this game, and that should make him a better coach down the road.