College Basketball Best Bets, Jan. 16: Indiana vs Purdue, NC State vs Wake Forest, More!

Vaughn Dalzell predicts four College Basketball outcomes on Tuesday’s slate, including Wake Forest at NC State and Indiana vs Purdue!

Wake Forest at NC State (-2): O/U 149.5

The ACC appears to be a two-team race at the top, but in the meantime, the middle continues to figure itself out with games like tonight’s matchup between Wake Forest visiting NC State.

NC State is 23-3 at home since the start of the 2022 season and won nine of the past 12 conference games at home. Wake Forest is 1-2 on the road and 1-2 on neutral courts for a 2-4 record away from home compared to 10-0 at home.

The Wolfpack have a top 100 rated offense (77th) and defense (68th), they play at a slow tempo on defense (325th) that forces turnovers (75th), plus own a stellar track record at home (8-1 this year) with one of the most experienced teams in the country ranking 14th in that category (2.98 years of average experience).

Through five ACC games, the Deacons are shooting 41% from three, which leads the conference, but allows 40.7% from deep, which is last. It’s hard to trust road teams that live or die by the three in conference play.

Give me NC State at -125 odds out to -140 or -3. They lost the last home game to rival North Carolina, so I like this spot to avoid back-to-back home losses for the Pack.

Pick: NC State ML (Risk 1.5u)

Syracuse at Pitt (-6.5): O/U 147.5

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when Pitt led at the half and had an 85% win expectancy before Syracuse won the home game 81-73.

Pitt’s looking for revenge at home on Cuse and following up a 22-point home loss to Duke. The Panthers are 1-4 in league play, so desperation is settling in, plus Pitt didn’t lose three straight home games once last season.

Syracuse’s five losses have come by double-digits and all were on the road or neutral courts where the Orange are a combined 2-5. Cuse is 1-3 in true road games and shooting 27.3% from deep (309th) with a 21.3% offensive turnover percentage (314th).

Both Pitt and Syracuse played Pitt and Duke, both going a combined 0-4 in those games. However, I did like how Pitt played UNC for 30-35 minutes, but couldn’t say the same for how Cuse (lost by a combined 56 points).

Give me Pitt in a home revenge spot at -6.5 (-110) out to -7. Syracuse lost its last three trips to Pitt by 16, 11, and 20 points.

Pick: Pitt -6.5 (1u)

Missouri at Alabama (-14.5): O/U 161.5

Missouri is 1-6 in the last seven games with its lone win over Central Arkansas. In that seven-game span, Missouri has allowed three teams to score 88 or more points and held the other four to 75 or fewer points.

In Missouri’s last 84 games or 2.5 seasons, only six times have an opponent scored 88-plus points on Mizzou. Alabama and Missouri started playing one another in 2013, and Bama has never scored 89 or more points versus Mizzou and reached 88 points once.

The Tigers lost three straight SEC games to open this year and have a veteran squad that ranks 13th with 3.01 average years of DI experience. Alabama started SEC play 3-0 with a 21.1% offensive turnover percentage (2nd-last) and plays at the second-slowest tempo on defense.

Missouri also plays at a bottom-three tempo on defense, plus the Tigers only turn the ball over 12.5% of the time in that same three-game span (3rd) with a 19.7% turnover percentage on defense (3rd).

I will ride the Alabama Team Total Under 87.5 at -115 odds. There are 88.5s now, which I would play or wait to see if you can get an 89.5.

Pick: Alabama Team Total Under 87.5 (1u)

Purdue (-9.5) at Indiana: O/U 150.0

The Hoosiers are leading the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.3), defensive effective field goal percentage (43.7%), and three-point defense (24.7%). Indiana is 8-1 at home this court with its lone loss versus Kansas (75-71) and won its three Big Ten home games by 10.0 points per game.

Indiana welcomes rival Purdue to town in one of the biggest games of the night. Purdue lost its past road outing versus Nebraska and the Huskers laid a foundation on how to double-team Zach Edey and limit the big man (15 points, 7 rebounds).

If Indiana can replicate some of that at home in a hostile environment with the fourth-tallest rotation in the country, then Purdue should struggle.

Indiana lost by 5 and 8 last season to Purdue and has been involved in five straight single-digit outcomes against the Boilermakers. I played Indiana +9.5 at -110 odds and expect a competitive game.

Pick: Indiana +9.5 (1u)

Season Record: 17-14 (54.8%) +1.28u

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