Clippers vs. Bucks prediction: how bettors can still profit with this high total

Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) scores as Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (13) defends during the first half of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Jan. 28, 2023, in Atlanta. AP

We have a Clippers vs. Bucks prediction as Milwaukee seeks to build on its five-game winning streak.

The Bucks are starting to look like a complete unit again, with Khris Middleton back on the team after missing a good portion of the season due to multiple injuries.

Middleton has played in only 12 of Milwaukee’s 51 games this season. As a result, the Bucks are taking a cautious approach by utilizing him off the bench instead of in a starting role.

It’ll take some time for the 11-year veteran to regain his form, as he’s averaging 21 minutes per game while shooting a career-worst 37% from the floor.

But if you ask the Bucks, I’m sure they’re preaching patience as he works his way back.

Middleton can be another facilitator on the court for the Bucks, given that he’s averaged at least four assists per game in the past five seasons.

Milwaukee’s offense can sometimes get stagnant if they rely solely on Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, we’re seeing the Bucks get in and out of their offense much quicker, making the over even more appealing in terms of the total.

Clippers vs. Bucks odds

Odds provided by FanDuel

Spread: LAC +4 (-110) vs. MIL -4 (-110)

Moneyline: LAC (+148) vs. MIL (-176)

Total: Over 230 (-112) | Under 230 (-108)

Clippers vs. Bucks pick Over 230 points Clippers vs. Bucks analysis

The total for this game opened at 230.5, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this number ticks even higher. And with a total this high, I tend to dig deeper into the numbers on a team-by-team basis.

What I’ve found with their recent games is that Milwaukee is playing at a much faster pace.

According to TeamRankings, the Bucks rank 13th with 104 possessions per game. Yet, in their past three contests, they lead the league with an average of 111.3 possessions.

We’re also seeing the Bucks attempt the second-highest 3-pointers during that span. Those attempts resulted in 16.7 3-point field goals per game, putting them second in the league during that stretch.

You have to give the Bucks credit for how they’ve been able to build their roster. Milwaukee’s perimeter shooting is a legitimate threat.

I think that style of play will help speed up the pace against a Clippers team that prefers to be more methodical in their approach. After all, Los Angeles ranks 27th in pace with 100.8 possessions per game.

I suspect that it’s the Clippers who will have to adapt to the Bucks as Milwaukee plays in front of its home fans.

Our Action Labs database shows that when Los Angeles is on the road with an opening total of 230 or higher against a team that averages 101.5 or more possessions, the over is 22-11 for 9.3 units.

This angle is also on a 6-0 run.

With the Bucks seemingly getting up and down the court in a hurry lately, I like our chances for a high-scoring affair.

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