Classic Dan: right to the end, Andrews stays one step ahead of his rivals

Classic Dan, to resign like that. Not a whisper to anyone, then ambush the media and your enemies in the parliament – on your own side as well as the coalition.

Why was it so sudden? Probably catching factional foes unprepared, in order to ensure that his deputy, Jacinta Allan, gets to be “next premier”. There were some internal rumblings, attempts to deny him his choice of successor, and it is classic Dan to catch the plotters off guard.

The left control two-thirds of the numbers in the ALP Victorian caucus and the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games (one of Allan’s portfolio responsibilities) saw a softening of support for her which needed to be stemmed quickly. She will have plenty of time to establish herself before the next state poll three years away.

The moments that defined Daniel Andrews’ nine years as premier – video

And in case it is needed – a reminder that battles fought within the ALP are bare-knuckle affairs while those fought with the Tories are almost genteel by comparison.

Assurances given by Andrews at the last election to “serve full term” were always amusing, not binding and just part of the political tussle. Those cliche questions do not amount to anything when push comes to shove – just like the “will you enter into a coalition if you don’t get a majority in your own right?” questions do not stop manoeuvring when it matters either.

Dan Andrews leaves a legacy of being the most progressive premier since Don Dunstan in South Australia fifty years ago. Australia’s first process towards an Aboriginal treaty, the nation’s first voluntary assisted dying laws, abortion law reform, supervised injecting centres and more women and more diversity than ever in both the ministry and the government caucus are some of the many profound changes Victorians embraced and then endorsed as recently as at the November 2022 state poll.

With those progressive policies delivered, despite the protestations of the Murdoch tabloid the Herald-Sun and some commercial shock-jocks, Andrews was returned to power with an increased majority. The wailing and ranting from the Sky After Dark talking heads was hilarious. Their attempts to weaponise his accidental falling down stairs in early 2021 when he broke his back was a new low in Australian political commentary. The turbo-charging of rumours and vile smears that followed undoubtedly forged the path to Covid conspiracies.

John Howard dismissed Victoria as Australia’s “Massachusetts of the South” when his Liberal party started to lose seats federally and in state elections. But Andrews has capitalised on that Spec [socially progressive economically conservative] sentiment for nearly a decade.

His mantra, oft repeated, was “I will say what I’ll do, and I do what I said”. He developed a reputation for “getting shit done”.

It worked – the unashamedly unglamorous promise to remove railway level crossings cemented his reputation for being able to look after the nuts and bolts of governing, delivering infrastructure as well as basic services, robbing the conservatives of their supposed superior project management credentials.

At a more subtle level, barely noticed by most voters, Victorians have seen an unprecedented centralisation of control into his private office, more so even than federally under Scott Morrison.

Nothing significant could proceed in Victoria until someone within the DPC [department of premier and cabinet] signed off to allow it to happen. Ministers have often bristled at that level of micro-management, but Andrews was unapologetic.

His attitude during Covid formed his approach for the post-pandemic years that followed.

He believed that if his longevity in office depended on decisions being made during lockdown, then he would personally make them, not a delegate. He was not prepared to lose office because of something someone else decided.

The entire Covid lockdown has left scar tissue on the collective psyche of Victorians. The “daily Dan” marathon press conferences became compulsory viewing and left a polarised population.

Would anyone else – on either side of the political divide – have done a better job? By any global comparison, Australia weathered the pandemic better than most, but nobody who lived through lockdown will readily forget it. Many will not forgive.

Andrews was sensationally called – as a witness not a suspect – to multiple anti-corruption commission inquiries. There have been no adverse findings about him and electorally, no mud has stuck.

The Victorian ombudswoman, Deborah Glass, is completing a long-running investigation into the politicisation of the public service. ALP stalwarts insist there is nothing untoward in ensuring that the governments values are reflected in their choice of senior personnel within the executive. Membership of the ALP is not a prerequisite for promotion or appointment but we shall learn what she has found when that report is delivered later this year.

As Dan Andrews looks forward to his personal grand final, Victorians look back at a premier who was either revered or reviled.