Churchill: Elise Stefanik’s not-so-magic touch

I suppose you could take my assumption as a sign that I’d lost faith in voters, no longer believing that, say, speaking favorably about Hitler’s terrific leadership qualities would render a candidate unelectable. Or maybe it shows that I’d begun to overestimate the political acumen of Elise Stefanik, who had provided Paladino with a ringing endorsement.

Even her most strident critics acknowledge Stefanik’s striking run of political wins, given the way she has transformed herself from a relatively anonymous congressional backbencher (and Trump skeptic) into a prominent Republican who champions the former president and all he represents.

“I’m ultra-MAGA, and I’m proud of it,” Stefanik proclaimed a few months back.

But voters dealt Stefanik blows on Tuesday. In a generally conservative 23rd Congressional District that stretches from Lake Erie across the Southern Tier, Paladino lost his primary race against Nick Langworthy, chairman of the state’s Republican Party.

It was a win for the establishment, surely, a real rarity in the modern GOP. It was also a win for sanity, with voters for once realizing that bombastic candidates who say outrageous and awful things are part of the problem, instead of a solution.

Paladino, who spent much of the campaign with his mouth taped shut, didn’t help himself by suggesting last week that U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland “should probably be executed.” Paladino said he was being facetious, but his gallows humor (literally) may have turned just enough stomachs to lose him the race.

Voters, said Langworthy, “believed that Western New York deserved better than a foul-mouthed developer.” Paladino, in turn, initially and predictably claimed that there might be some statistical irregularities in the results, before conceding to reality on Wednesday.

“It is time to move on to the next chapter of my life,” said Paladino, who lost the 2010 governor’s race to Andrew Cuomo. 

Why Stefanik, the third most powerful Republican in the House, would attach her name to Paladino’s malodorous brand of idiocy is anyone’s guess. But it was a clear miscalculation and a sign that her pull on the Republican base is limited — even among the hardcore types who turn out for a primary absurdly taking place in August.

And it wasn’t Stefanik’s only setback on Tuesday. In the 19th Congressional District special election, she had campaigned for Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who lost to Democrat Pat Ryan in a race to occupy the seat for just four months.

With the advantage of hindsight, it’s fair to believe Molinaro made a mistake by linking himself with Stefanik, whose appearances in the district may have fired up turnout among Democrats while jeopardizing Molinaro’s moderate reputation.

In any event, the nationally watched race to replace Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado is now being interpreted as a sign that the predicted November red tsunami may instead be a ripple. That’s a lot of weight to put on an August special election that attracted only 130,000 voters — 300,000 voted early when Delgado won in 2018 — but you can bet Democrats around the country will now replicate Ryan’s focus on abortion. 

“Choice was on the ballot,” Ryan tweeted after his win. “Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won.”

Confusingly enough, Molinaro turns now to another fight: He’s running against Democrat Josh Riley in a newly reconfigured 19th Congressional District. It will be interesting to see if he again campaigns with Stefanik. (Don’t do it, Marc!)

She, meanwhile, will have her own race to run against Democrat Matt Castelli, a former CIA officer in Iraq and Afghanistan who also served as the director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council. 

With that resume, the town of Poughkeepsie native is a stronger challenger than Tedra Cobb, who was walloped by Stefanik in successive elections. And Castelli will receive piles of money from Democrats all around the country eager to take Stefanik down.

Still, Stefanik will win. Won’t she?

From this perspective, her hold on the seat is strong, especially since her 21st Congressional District is hardly a place where baggage adorned with Trump stickers will weigh her down.

Then again, I assumed Paladino would win. Shows you what I know.

cchurchill@timesunion.com ■ 518-454-5442 ■ @chris_churchill