Chiefs vs. Chargers betting predictions: Look to the total for Thursday Night

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Matt York) The Associated Press

Week 2 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight as the Los Angeles Chargers travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC West divisional contest.

Both teams started off the new campaign in great form. The Chargers captured a home win against the Las Vegas Raiders while the Chiefs boat raced the Arizona Cardinals 44-21 in Arizona.

Last season, these teams split their two head-to-head meetings. The Chiefs won 34-28 in Los Angeles in December after having fallen at home to the Chargers in September, 30-24, at Arrowhead Stadium.

But how should bettors approach this latest installment? Below are my two best bets for the game — a total and a player prop. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Best Bet No. 1 Total Under 54 Points (-110), Caesars Sportsbook

Although there’s a chance this game flies over this marker, it’s my opinion this could prove a more defensive contest than in past years.

Last week, I was thoroughly impressed with the Los Angeles defense against another high-powered offense in the Las Vegas Raiders. For the week, Los Angeles ranked third overall in both total defensive DVOA and passing defense DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com, even without cornerback J.C. Jackson.

Whereas the Chiefs offense looked perfectly fine last week in their first game without Tyreek Hill, the Chargers defense is undoubtedly better than the Cardinals defense Kansas City faced last week.

At the same time, I was rather unimpressed by the Chargers offense last week. Perhaps somewhat expectedly, head coach Brandon Staley relied heavily on Justin Herbert with the ground game becoming almost non-existent. That’s further evidenced by the fact Los Angeles ranked fifth league-wide last week in passing DVOA against 21st in rushing DVOA.

With top wide receiver Keenan Allen likely out of the equation this week, I expect a drop-off in production from the Chargers offense away from home.

Add in that both teams will be playing on short rest and I like this under at 53.5 or lower.

Best Bet No. 2 Mike Williams Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115), BetMGM

Williams had only two receptions for 10 yards last week against the Raiders, but I’m expecting a stronger performance in Kansas City.

As referenced earlier, Keenan Allen is questionable for tonight’s matchup. Should he ultimately miss out, that would see Williams slot into the number one spot on the depth chart and see his target share increase. Plus, even with Allen available last season, Williams did well to clear this benchmark.

In 16 games last season, Williams surpassed this total in seven but reached at least 61 yards in nine of those games. Plus, just in two games against Kansas City, Herbert targeted Williams 18 times for 10 receptions and 171 yards. In the meeting at Kansas City, Williams registered seven receptions for 122 yards and two touchdowns.

Given the Chargers appear hellbent on getting the ball into Herbert’s hands, expect the opportunities to be there for Williams. Add in that the Chiefs ranked 21st league-wide in passing defense DVOA last season and I would back this prop on Williams up to 68 yards.

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