Chicago State vs. Northwestern prediction: College basketball odds, picks, best bets for Wednesday

When Gerald Gillion was hired by Chicago State two years ago, the program was in shambles. The Cougars had never been to the NCAA Tournament or even received an NIT bid, and were 7-63 and winless in the WAC (0-30) under Lance Lynn, the head coach Gillion replaced.

Gillion knew what he had inherited, but that didn’t stop him from promising a bright future, or at least the hope of one.

“I’m a winner,” he said at his opening news conference. “My staff and I will not accept mediocrity on any level. We need to win now, not next year.”

Chicago State went 7-25 in Gillion’s first season, winning three conference games for the first time in eight years, then won 11 games last year as an Independent, with victories in seven of the team’s final 11 games.

It was a remarkable turnaround for the Chicago school with an enrollment of just 2,300. But while the victories increased dramatically, they came against mostly inferior talent.

And now the Cougars are having a difficult time even beating the weaker opponents on their schedule, starting the season 3-9 overall and an underwhelming 4-7 record against the spread.

Since Gillion took over the program, Chicago State is averaging 66.0 points per game, the seventh-lowest among all D-1 teams over that time frame. The Cougars are actually averaging a point less so far this season.

That’s not good news with a short trip to Northwestern Wednesday night on tap. The Wildcats beat Chicago State by 31 points in the season opener last year.

That continued a streak of large-margin defeats to the Wildcats, who had beaten CSU by 45, 42 and 67 points over a four-year period before Gillion was hired.

The primary concern for the Cougars tonight is turnovers. They rank 294th in offensive turnover rate, while Northwestern – with a quick and physical backcourt – ranks 14th nationally in forcing turnovers.

On offense, CSU relies heavily on its skilled wings and guards to drive to the hoop, aiming for points in the paint or trips to the foul line. That will prove to be problematic against Northwestern’s defense, which is led by 7-foot center Matthew Nicholson and a top-30 national block rate.

Conversely, if Chicago State fails to disrupt Northwestern’s ball handlers and force turnovers, the Wildcats are poised to capitalize with easy baskets. Northwestern – with Boo Buie, Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry  handling the ball the majority of the time – is ranked third nationally in ball protection and should have little trouble against the Cougars’ defensive pressure.

The streak of big blowouts should continue in tonight’s Battle of Chicago.

Pick: Wildcats -24.5 (-120 at BetMGM)