Celtics vs. Thunder prediction: shooting for some value on the total

LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) hangs onto the ball after driving past Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022, in Boston. AP

The Boston Celtics hope to get back in the win column after the Denver Nuggets snapped their four-game winning streak.

Next up for the Celtics is a visit to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team that’s lost back-to-back games.

This matchup features two teams that rank in the league’s top half in scoring with at least 115 points per game.

Thus, it’s no surprise that we have a total in the low 230s.

In this preview, I’ll share my projection for the game and examine if this total may be a bit inflated by the bookmakers.

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Celtics vs. Thunder odds

Odds provided by Caesars

Spread: BOS -8.5 (-110) vs. OKC +8.5 (-110)

Moneyline: BOS (-355) vs. OKC (+278)

Total: Over 234 (-110) | Under 234 (-110)

Celtics vs. Thunder pick Under 234 points Celtics vs. Thunder analysis

I’m always intrigued when I see a game with an opening total of at least 231 points.

For a matchup to produce that many points, teams must score at a very high clip throughout the game. One lousy quarter and they’re unlikely to reach that scoring mark.

Under bettors tend to thrive when they see a total this high.

Our Action Labs database, which dates back to the 2005 season, shows that under bettors are up 12.47 units with an opening total of 231 points or higher.

Those numbers improve to 26.49 units with an opening total of at least 232 and 35.68 units when it’s at least 233 points.

But while this system play remains very profitable, it doesn’t hurt to include some situational analysis based on this matchup.

We know Oklahoma City leads the league in pace with 106.7 possessions per game, according to TeamRankings.

However, the Thunder rank just 26th in effective field-goal percentage (52.2%), which adjusts to account for 3-pointers.

In other words, the Thunder are using extra possessions to overcome the fact that they’re not a great shooting team.

Thus, if you look at their efficiency, they rank 23rd with 108 points per 100 possessions.

These numbers certainly don’t bode well against a team with the defensive acumen of the Celtics.

The Celtics rank ninth defensively in efficiency, allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions.

Boston’s defensive metrics should continue to improve now that center Robert Williams III is back with the team following a nearly two-month absence after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee.

I don’t think the Thunder will want to play this game at a high pace, as I suspect they’ll try to avoid things from getting out of hand on their home floor.

After running the numbers, my model projects this total should be closer to 230 points.

That gives me a four-point edge to the under, as you can readily find a total of 234 points available in the market.

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