Celtics vs Knicks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Porzingis Powers Up From Downtown

The Celtics will create spacing and ball-movement around the perimeter against the Knicks, which should give clean looks for an atypical big like Kristaps Porzingis. KP is making his Boston debut and our betting picks like him to shine.

After a two-game appetizer last night, the full course meal of NBA action arrives tonight as 24 of the league’s 30 teams are in action. Headlining the entire slate is a national TV Atlantic Division showdown between the Boston Celtics and the New York Knicks.

The storyline of this game is all about a contending team in Boston that made radical changes to its core getting its first test against a New York team that is all-in on continuity and internal development. NBA odds are listing the Celtics as slight road favorites.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Knicks believe Kristaps Porzingis is going to have a big night against his former team.

Celtics vs Knicks odds Celtics vs Knicks predictions

Kristaps Porzingis was once billed as the modern-day savior of the New York Knicks. He was seen as a unicorn whose combination of size and skill would herald a return to relevancy for a long-downtrodden franchise still dining out on Finals appearances from the ’90s.

It didn’t exactly work out that way, for a variety of reasons, but oddly both the Knicks and Porzingis find themselves in their most promising positions in years. The Boston Celtics trading for Porzingis was the first in a series of moves that has them near the very top of NBA championship odds.

Against the Knicks, the Porzingis addition should prove particularly effective. Tom Thibodeau has certain principles he lives by as a coach, and those are vulnerable to a genuine stretch five like KP.

The Knicks play a conservative style. Their goal is to deny drives and access to the basket more than force turnovers or deny passing lanes. That means the Celtics won’t feel much pressure moving the ball around the perimeter in most cases, and passes that get to Porzingis can prove particularly deadly because the Knicks will always play a traditional five who wants to be anchored in the paint.

That will usually be Mitchell Robinson, and he has a bad habit of helping aggressively off centers no matter their shooting pedigree. KP has one of the quickest releases in the NBA for a player of his size, so even slight hesitation on a close-out will result in a clean look.

While Thibodeau teams are known historically for their defense, this Knicks team was all about the offense. The defense had cracks. Jalen Brunson is a wonderful player and he tries hard, but he’s an easy mismatch target for any number of Boston’s guards and big wings. Once that mismatch happens, the Knicks are going to be scrambling in rotation. 

The more that happens, the more likely it is the Celtics swing the ball to an open shooter in the corner or above the break. That will often be the unicorn, ready and willing to pull a quick-trigger triple.

Porzingis averaged seven 3-point attempts per 36 minutes in the preseason. On those attempts, he hit 50% of them. While I won’t predict KP will torch the Knicks to quite that level, he only needs to hit two to clear this far-too-low prop.

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My best bet: Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 made threes (-145 at DraftKings) 50% boost available

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Celtics vs Knicks same-game parlay

Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 made threes

Celtics -3

Jalen Brunson Under 24.5 points

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The Celtics are one of the elite title contenders this season, they’re fully healthy and have a few pressure points that should give them an edge against New York despite being on the road. One of those things is the shooting and spacing provided by Porzingis and Al Horford. That is going to open up driving lanes for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and hamper the Knicks’ ability to rebound effectively on the defensive end.

I also expect this Celtics defense to be an absolute monster, particularly on the perimeter. Jrue Holiday is just a nasty matchup for Jalen Brunson. Brunson is an incredibly skilled player, who shines in one-on-one situations due to his elite footwork. 

But all that fancy footwork begins with him leveraging his strength to create separation from his defender. Holiday is built like a brick wall and might be the single toughest guard to move in the league. That could limit Brunson’s offensive game from really getting going.

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Celtics vs Knicks and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as little as -1.5-point favorites for Wednesday, but that has risen across the board to as high as -3.5 at some sportsbooks. That original line was too low, but I’m still skeptical that this spread accurately reflects how good this Celtics team might be.

The Knicks kind of had the Celtics’ number last season, going 3-1 against their rivals in green and doing so in typical New York fashion. They were the tougher team from start to finish, outmuscling and bruising the Celtics’ wings and bigs enough to close the sizeable talent gap. 

That gap ballooned this offseason, however, in a couple of key areas that are likely to make this a more difficult matchup for New York going forward.

As KP’s quick trigger is likely to see Robinson leaping at the air or caught out of position for much of the night, the Knicks lose so much of what makes him uniquely valuable. Still, this is a good Knicks team and their offensive formula has proven to be sustainable. New York is 4-2 against the spread against Boston over their last six meetings.

The total for Wednesday’s contest between the Celtics and the Knicks opened at 222.5 and has risen as high as 225.5 at some sportsbooks. I’m not surprised to see that number keep climbing ahead of tip-off, because these are two offense-first teams even if they both have lingering defensive reputations.

The Knicks were the No. 2 overall offense last season, per Cleaning the Glass, and returned virtually their entire roster. The Celtics were fourth, and they made serious upgrades in that department by bringing in Porzingis and Holiday.

These teams also seem to always play in crazy, high-scoring games as well. Their season opener two seasons ago was a double-overtime thriller, and the Over is now 6-2 in their last eight meetings. At the original line, I’d have leaned Over, but with three points of movement, this is now a stay-away bet for me.

Celtics vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Over is 6-2 in the Knicks’ last eight games against the Celtics. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Knicks.

Celtics vs Knicks game info Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY Date: Wednesday, October 25, 2023 Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET TV: ESPN Celtics vs Knicks latest injuries

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