Celtics offseason primer: How can Brad Stevens improve roster after ugly exit?

MIAMI — The Celtics season ended in disappointing fashion on Monday night after the team fell short of a historic comeback to the Heat by laying an absolute egg in Game 7 to lose the series 4-3. Once the heavy favorites to make the NBA Finals after the Bucks were upset in Round 1, the Celtics now enter the offseason in a worst-case scenario after bowing out in the East Finals to a Heat squad that were heavy underdogs at the start of the series.

With so much of the team’s core under contract through next season, the logical stance would be for the Celtics to run things back. However, after an underwhelming finish to the year with this core, big questions now arise about what exactly is this team’s best path moving forward as a new collective bargaining agreement goes into effect.

Big questions and no easy answers await Brad Stevens as tries to get this team back to the NBA Finals next season. Here’s a first look at the offseason outlook and the tools he has at his disposal to reshape this group after an ugly finish.

2023-24 projected payroll

Jayson Tatum: $32.6 million

Jaylen Brown: $30.7 million

Malcolm Brogdon: $22.5 million

Marcus Smart: $18.5 million

Derrick White: $18.1 million

Robert Williams: $11.8 million

Al Horford: $10 million

Danilo Gallinari: $6.8 million (player option)

Payton Pritchard: $4 million

Mike Muscala: $3.5 million (team option)

Luke Kornet: $2.4 million (non-guaranteed)

Sam Hauser: $1.9 million

Justin Champagne: $1.9 million (non-guaranteed)

Total salary: $166 million to 13 players

Total guaranteed money: $158 million to 10 players

Expected salary cap for 2023-24: $134 million

Expected luxury tax line for 2023-24: $162 million

2023 CELTICS FREE AGENTS

Grant Williams (restricted): This will be the biggest storyline of the Celtics’ offseason from an internal perspective to begin. Williams turned down a four-year extension last October per league sources in hopes of landing a bigger deal but he had an underwhelming second half of the season that included being yanked in and out of Joe Mazzulla’s rotation at various points of the year. Williams may want a fresh start elsewhere but he’s not in control of that with the Celtics holding his restricted rights in free agency. How much will the Celtics be willing to spend to bring him back? Will Williams opt for a short-term deal to hit unrestricted free agency sooner? The Celtics have no reliable means of replacing his production in free agency but his price tag won’t be cheap when factoring in luxury tax penalties.

Blake Griffin: A great voice in the locker room during the regular season who provided some useful minutes when Al Horford and Robert Williams needed time off. He clearly would be welcomed back by his teammates but with limited open spots available on the roster, will the team opt to address a different area of the roster with this spot? It’s hard to see him coming back if Muscala and Kornet are retained (far from a sure thing).

Non-guaranteed contracts: Mike Muscala has a team option at a little above the league minimum but that could be deemed as a pricy investment when the luxury tax penalties are factored in. If the Celtics are able to re-sign Grant Williams, I could see the Celtics declining it and trying to bring him back at the veteran’s minimum or turning to a younger player altogether. Kornet will likely be battling for a roster spot in training camp to stay on his minimum contract.

Two-way contracts: JD Davison feels like a lock to be back in this spot given his age coming off a solid season in Maine. Meanwhile, Mfiondu Kabengele is no longer eligible for a two-way spot seeing how it’s his fifth year in the league so he would have to play his way into a 15-man roster spot in training camp. New CBA rules will also have the Celtics three total two-way spots to fill next year so they will be able to add a couple of young names here.

TRADED PLAYER EXCEPTIONS

The Celtics have two TPEs but both are worth under $2 million so they won’t be of use in any trades for Boston. Any deals the Celtics make this offseason will need to involve matching salaries.

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DRAFT PICKS

The Celtics will pick at No. 35 in the second round. It will be the highest pick of the Brad Stevens era if they choose to keep it on draft night next month.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Will Jaylen Brown get a supermax extension or are alternatives explored?

The Celtics know what they will be able to offer their All-Star guard later this summer, with a five-year, up to $295 million offer that could be in play. Will the team be willing to give him the full boat after a disappointing East Finals exit for the franchise which featured a brutal series for Brown, particuarly in Game 7? And will Brown be willing to commit to Boston for the long-term? If the offer is made, it’s hard to see Brown turning it down but this will be a subplot that lingers until both sides are willing to make a commitment. However, if the Celtics aren’t sure that they can build a contending team adequately around Brown and Tatum while both are making supermax money for the latter half of this decade, a trade could be explored. For now, the odds remain strongly in favor of Brown staying put but the Celtics finish to the year no longer makes it a sure thing.

Will Joe Mazzulla be back? The odds are in favor of Mazzulla getting a second chance after the team felt confident enough to lift his interim tag in the middle of the regular season. However, his missteps in the postseason along with the team getting upset this round could give the front office pause after a golden opportunity was squandered. If he’s back, look for some more experienced names to flank him on the bench as some of his current assistants are expected to rejoin Ime Udoka in Houston per sources.

How does Brad Stevens shake up the roster? With 10 players under contract already for guaranteed deals and limited free agent spending available, the easy move would be to bring everyone back and try to add some supplemental parts. Still, it’s a stretch to think this core will be good enough after taking a step back this year and digging themselves a 3-0 hole they could not climb out of. The Celtics have excess depth in the backcourt that they will likely be better served to move to address other parts of the roster. Outside of bringing back Tatum and probably Brown, every possibility should be on the table.

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