Canada posts Jan trade surplus as imports plunge to near 2-year low

By Promit Mukherjee and Ismail Shakil

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada recorded a bigger than expected trade surplus of C$496 million ($367.6 million) in January, as imports plunged to a nearly 2-year low while exports fell at a slower pace, data showed on Thursday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a C$100 million surplus in the month. December’s trade deficit was revised to C$863 million from a deficit of C$312 million initially reported, Statistics Canada said.

The Canadian dollar firmed slightly after the numbers were released with the local currency trading 0.23% stronger at 1.3483 to the US dollar.

Total imports fell 3.8% to its lowest level since February 2022, largely on consumer goods and motor vehicles, Statscan said. By volume, imports were down 4.1% in the month.

Exports declined 1.7%, a third consecutive monthly fall, mainly on metal and non-metallic mineral products as well as aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts. Total exports fell 1.8% by volume.

Thursday’s trade report is broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s expectations for high borrowing costs to keep consumer spending restrained in the near term, impacting import levels, while soft foreign demand weighs on exports.

Both imports and exports are projected to pick up in the second half of 2024.

The central bank held its key overnight rate at a 22-year high of 5% for the fifth time in a row on Wednesday and said it was too early to consider a cut. The bank has kept interest rates on hold since July in its efforts to cool inflation.

Canada’s trading activity slowed with the United States, which buys more than three quarters of its total exports and accounts for over 60% of its total imports and surplus widened slightly.

Imports decreased by 1.7% in January, partly because of lower imports of motor vehicles and parts and pharmaceutical products while exports fell 1% led by lower exports of aircrafts.

Its trading activity with other countries also slowed in January, Statscan said, adding its deficit with them narrowed.

($1 = 1.3493 Canadian dollars)

(Additional reporting by Dale Smith; Editing by Nick Zieminski)