Can the Browns beat the Bengals and fix Deshaun Watson at the same time? – Terry Pluto’s Pregame Scribbles
Bengals #Bengals
CINCINNATI, Ohio – Scribbles in my notebook as the Browns play Sunday in Cincinnati against the Bengals:
1. For Cleveland, two things are happening: They need to beat Cincinnati for any remote hope of a playoff berth. They have to shape up Deshaun Watson fast. The QB has played 55 career NFL games. This was the first time he didn’t lead the offense to at least one TD. In the 27-14 victory in Houston, Watson was 12 of 22 passing for 131 yards and an interception. His 53.4 passer rating was the lowest of his career, and it happened against one of the NFL’s worst defenses.
2. As former Browns coach Bill Belichick once said over and over after a loss he didn’t wish to discuss: “On to Cincinnati.” That’s where we are, in Paycor Stadium. No dome. No artificial turf as Watson had in Houston – his former home field with the Texans. Welcome to AFC North December football, as he also has Baltimore and Pittsburgh left on the schedule.
3. Watson on his performance in Houston: “The anticipation to just be back on the field … the anticipation of going back to (play) my former team … the anticipation of playing against former teammates and being in front of a crowd that used to cheer for me. All of that stuff was definitely a lot. I am human so I definitely have things running through my mind and through just my soul in general.”
4. That’s understandable. But Watson’s throwing mechanics and fundamentals were a nightmare. Many of his passes bounced in front of receivers. He bolted from the pocket too quickly and made several off-balance throws. He said the speed of the game was not a problem. Sure looked like it was.
5. After watching video of the game, Watson admitted he needed to work on his footwork: “Make sure my base is staying tight as much as possible – making sure I am trusting the O-line within the pocket … just making sure I am trusting my eyes and my feet.”
6. I like this suggestion from Lance Reisland, who does Browns video breakdowns for cleveland.com: Let Watson use his speed and run the ball more. Don’t take on linebackers, but look for openings. Watson did run it seven times for 21 yards, but most were desperation bolts from the pocket. Use some of the RPOs (run/pass options) to get Watson into the flow of the game. Look for that to happen.
7. Meanwhile, much is being made of the Browns being 4-0 vs. Joe Burrow. The Cincinnati QB is sick of hearing it. So are the Bengals. In their only meeting this season, the Browns crushed Cincinnati, 32-13. Myles Garrett had 1.5 sacks. He also batted a Burrow pass that was intercepted.
8. Garrett has sacked Burrow six times in those four games. Asked to explain his problems vs. the Browns, Burrow told reporters: “They have Myles Garrett. That’s different than anyone else.”
9. The Bengals are on a four-game winning streak. That began after the loss to the Browns. Burrow has been sacked only five times in those four games. That came after the Browns sacked Burrow five times in Cleveland’s Monday night victory. Since then, Burrow is delivering his passes quicker than ever before, giving opposing pass rushers less time to reach him. The Browns are telling their pass rushers to make sure they put hands up, try to block his view and bat down some of his passes.
10. It’s hard to believe Burrow is 3-0 vs. Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes, but 0-4 vs. the Browns. But that’s the case. Burrow is 20-13-1 against everyone else in the NFL except Cleveland.
11. After an 0-2 start this season, the Bengals are 8-2. Cincinnati believes this will be a different game because it has run-stopper D.J. Reader on the defensive line and star receiver Ja’Marr Chase healthy this time. When the Browns beat the Bengals, they were without Denzel Ward, David Njoku, Wyatt Teller and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. All are expected to play for Cleveland.
12. One of the confusing parts of Cincinnati’s approach to Cleveland has been having Burrow pass and pass and pass. He’s averaged 45 passes per game vs. the Browns compared to 34 in other games. The Browns don’t defend well vs. the run. A stat I like is average yards per carry by running backs vs. a team. The Browns are giving up 5.3 yards per carry to opposing backs.
13. Joe Mixon had been Cincinnati’s starting back, but the Bengals have found some magic in Samaje Perine. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry, compared to 3.8 for Mixon. Burrow is throwing lots of passes to those two backs. They have 71 catches so far. Running back screens are a way to counter a strong pass rush.
14. As for the Browns, they can’t count on holding Cincinnati to only 13 points, as they did earlier in the year. The Bengals are averaging 26 points a game, seventh-best in the NFL. Nor can Cleveland count on scoring two TDs on defense and a third on special teams – as it did in Houston. The offense has to produce.
15. Watson is not a traditional QB. He likes to scramble, create plays with his legs and, yes, make off-balance throws. Much of his game is based on reacting to the defense and using his athleticism to evade a rush and buy extra time for his receivers to get open. He will be sacked. From 2018 to 2020, no NFL QB was sacked more than Watson – an average of 47 times per season. For his career, he’s completed 68% of his passes. So his style has worked in the past.
16. When the Browns replaced Jacoby Brissett with Watson at QB, they ranked No. 10 in the NFL in scoring. Even if Watson continues to struggle, they are not going back to Brissett. “Deshaun Watson is our quarterback,” coach Kevin Stefanski said earlier in the week.
17. Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said of Watson: “I would like to see him get as many reps as he can regardless of how it is going. We need to work through the rust, get it completely knocked off and feel good about the end of the year.”
18. That’s the plan: Try to win and try to bring Watson up to speed in the five remaining games. He has three vs. the AFC North. It’s hard to know how quickly Watson can find his old form. So much has been said about him missing 23 months, fans don’t want to hear it anymore.
19. Here’s reality: The Browns didn’t go through all the bad publicity along with the exorbitant price (six draft picks, a $230 million contract) to give up quickly on Watson. He is under a guaranteed contract for four more seasons after 2022 and counts $56 million on the salary cap annually from 2023-26. They have to make this work or the franchise is in long-term trouble trying to win.
20: My prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 17. To win, the Browns need a good game from Watson and I doubt he’s ready to deliver that. My record is 7-4.
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