By-election results: Oliver Dowden resigns as Tories lose in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton — follow live
Oliver Dowden #OliverDowden
Key moments Labour takes Wakefield from Conservatives The Liberal Democrats win in Tiverton & Honiton By-elections seen as test of PM’s recent performance Johnson vows to ‘keep going’
Oliver Dowden has resigned as Conservative Party chairman after big defeats for the Tories in two by-elections, which have punctured Boris Johnson’s reputation as a vote winner.
Dowden quit after “very poor” results in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton as he said supporters were “distressed and disappointed by recent events”.
In Tiverton & Honiton, in Devon, Richard Foord of the Liberal Democrats overturned a majority of more than 24,000, making it the biggest Conservative margin overturned in a British by-election. The record was previously held by Labour, after the party won in Liverpool Wavertree in 1935, where the Tory majority had been 23,972.
Oliver Dowden’s letter of resignation
In Wakefield, in West Yorkshire, Labour won with a majority of 4,925 on a 12.7 percentage point swing. It was an expected victory for Sir Keir Starmer’s party, which lost its grip of the constituency for the first time since 1932 at the last general election.
In Tiverton & Honiton the Lib Dems secured a 6,144 majority with an almost 30 percentage point swing, continuing Sir Ed Davey’s assault on the so-called blue wall of Tory seats.
Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, said the Tiverton & Honiton result was the “biggest by-election victory our country has ever seen”.
Sir Keir Starmer said the Conservatives were “absolutely imploding” after Dowden’s resignation. He said that the win in Wakefield was a “huge result for the Labour Party”, adding: “This puts us now absolutely on track for a Labour government, which is absolutely coming.”
Richard Foord, of the Liberal Democrats, celebrates victory in the Tiverton & Honiton by-election
ANDREW MATTHEWS/PA
The losses are likely to reinvigorate debates over whether Johnson is still an election winner. He led the Conservatives to a landslide victory in 2019 with a broad appeal to traditional southern voters and the so-called red wall in the north and the Midlands.
With the prime minister out of the country for a number of days — he is at the Commonwealth summit in Rwanda — nervous Tory MPs will have time and space to discuss their concerns.
Speaking in Rwanda after the by-election defeats, Johnson said he would “listen” to the message from voters, but vowed to “keep going” as prime minister.
More Tory seats could be in danger
If the results of the by-elections were repeated nationally, it would spell disaster for the Conservatives, with many senior politicians losing their seats (Geraldine Scott writes).
If the 29.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton & Honiton were replicated country-wide, based on current constituency boundaries Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary and leadership challenger, and Theresa May, the former prime minister, would lose their seats.
Labour’s swing in Wakefield, of 12.7 points, is around that needed for the opposition to be in with a shot of securing an overall majority at the next general election.
Officials count the votes in Crediton in Devon. There was a huge swing to the Lib Dems in the Tiverton & Honiton constituency
ANDREW MATTHEWS/PA
If this were to happen, Boris Johnson would be set to lose his seat, as would Iain Duncan Smith, the former party leader, George Eustice, the environment secretary, and Grant Shapps, the transport secretary.
The next election will likely be fought on new constituency boundaries due to be finalised in summer next year, and by-elections are not always a reliable indicator of national polls.
Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, estimates that if the Tiverton & Honiton swing were seen nationwide, 333 Tory MPs could lose their seats.
Tories facing headwinds, Raab admits
Dominic Raab has described the Conservative Party’s losses in the by-elections as being the result of a “perfect storm”.
The deputy prime minister told Today on BBC Radio 4: “My view is that the by-elections, both of them, were the result of the perfect storm of very difficult local scenarios, given the situations of the previously sitting Conservative MPs, plus the national headwinds, first of all, inevitably, for a mid-term government, but also, frankly, the distractions that we’ve had.
“I think the prime minister put it well: we need to listen very carefully. We need to take that feedback.
Dominic Raab speaking in parliament earlier this week
JESSICA TAYLOR/REUTERS
“I think [with] Tiverton, the most striking thing is how many of our supporters didn’t come out. We need to spend the next two years absolutely relentlessly focused on delivering our plan, without those distractions and with a real calm focus on delivering.”
Priti Patel said it was “important and right” that the Conservatives have a “moment of reflection” following the by-election results.
The home secretary told LBC: “It’s right that we listen to the voters from both of those constituencies. It’s right that we carry on with our service to them, but also recognise the issues that they themselves are raising and have raised on the doorstep — I went to both by-elections too — and we get on with the job.”
Asked if she thought there would be more resignations, after Oliver Dowden stood down as the Tory party chairman, she said: “I don’t because, as I’ve said, you know, to govern is hard, and to govern we make choices and decisions, and we are working night and day. I can give you that assurance… focusing on these big issues.”
PM blames cost of living crisis for setback
Boris Johnson blamed the by-election defeats on the spiralling cost of living and said there was “more to do” to help people cope with their bills (Henry Zeffman writes).
Speaking to broadcasters in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda where he is attending the Commonwealth summit, the prime minister said: “It’s absolutely true we’ve had some tough by-election results. They’ve been I think a reflection of a lot of things but we’ve got to recognise voters are going through a tough time at the moment.
“I think as a government I’ve got to listen to what people are saying, in particular to the difficulties people are facing over the cost of living, which I think for most people is the No 1 issue. We’re now facing pressures on the cost of living. We’re seeing spikes in fuel prices, energy costs, food costs — that’s hitting people.
The prime minister in Rwanda yesterday
DAN KITWOOD/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
“We’ve got to recognise there is more we’ve got to do and we certainly will. We will keep going, addressing the concerns of people until we get through this patch.”
Johnson denied that the by-election results were about his leadership, telling reporters: “That may be your view. I think that what governments also have to recognise is that I don’t want to minimise the importance of what voters are saying, but it is also true that in mid-term, governments post-war lose by-elections. I think if you look back to last May the truly astonishing thing was we managed to win Hartlepool in very different circumstances.
“What we need to do now is reflect on where voters are, and what they are basically feeling is that we came through Covid well and we took a lot of the right decisions there.”
Results are a disaster for the PM
It is very important not to overanalyse the by-election results. There are all sorts of clever things one can say about them (Daniel Finkelstein writes).
But in the end the right way to look at them is the simplest way. They seem like a disaster for the Tories, because they are.
Oliver Dowden’s reaction is appropriate. He is widely respected by Tory insiders for his political judgment, and widely liked, so his resignation sets an example. It also shows that one of the best political brains in the government understands how serious the position is.
Read the full article here.
Winning the next general election just became much harder
The results in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton do not make easy reading for the Conservatives (John Curtice writes).
The 12.7 per cent swing from Conservative to Labour in Wakefield would, if replicated everywhere, be enough to deliver a Labour overall majority.
Meanwhile, as many as 333 Tory MPs could lose their seat if they suffered the 29.9 per cent swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat registered in Tiverton & Honiton.
However, by-elections provide an exaggerated picture of a government’s mid-term electoral problems. The swings registered in the two by-elections would not necessarily have occurred in a general election on Thursday.
Read the full article here.
Defeats add to the PM’s woes
Although the prime minister had suggested losing the two by-elections was priced in, that is unlikely to do much to soothe those who fear the shine has rubbed off Boris Johnson (Geraldine Scott writes).
Fresh off the back of a confidence vote, which he narrowly won, Johnson has been fighting for survival on multiple fronts amid unease over the parties scandal and economic policies.
Some MPs felt campaigning in the two seats was futile while Johnson was still Conservative leader.
In the south, where the Liberal Democrats have targeted formerly safe Tory seats, MPs have felt rejected because of a focus on the north.
Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie attended a banquet at the Commonwealth summit in Kigali, Rwanda, last night
DAN KITWOOD/AP
But in the former red wall, MPs with tiny majorities will now fear it will be their seats that return to Labour next time the country goes to the polls.
“Who the hell are we a party for anymore?” one northern Conservative MP told The Times.
While Johnson is safe from another confidence vote, his extended trip to Rwanda, Germany and Spain in the coming days will restrict his ability to reassure MPs who think this result is another nail in the coffin for the prime minister.
He is likely to point out that governing parties are often hit by protest votes.
Michael Thrasher, a politics professor and elections analyst, suggested on Sky News that the results could point towards the possibility of a hung parliament at the next general election where Labour and the Lib Dems could form an overall majority.
“These by-elections do suggest that the Conservatives have a real job on their hands if they are to defend an 80-seat majority. Remember, they only need to lose 40 seats for that majority to evaporate and on the basis of these by-elections that’s the way they’re heading and we’re heading towards a hung parliament,” he said.
Oliver Dowden has resigned as Conservative Party chairman following the big defeats for the Tories in the by-elections (Geraldine Scott writes).
Dowden, in a letter to Boris Johnson, said supporters were “distressed and disappointed by recent events, and I share their feelings”.
He said the by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton were just “the latest in a run of very poor results for our party”.
Dowden, who as party chairman runs the Tory election machine, is seen as loyal to the Conservative Party and was due to represent the government on this morning’s broadcast round of media interviews. His resignation will prompt Tory MPs and cabinet ministers to consider their support for the prime minister and could trigger a wider reshuffle.
Oliver Dowden: “We cannot carry on with business as usual”
DANIEL LEAL/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
He said: “We cannot carry on with business as usual.”
However, the letter says more in what it leaves out than what it includes. Often, ministerial resignation letters will include a pledge to support the prime minister from the back benches — Downden’s does not.
He also suggested “somebody must take responsibility” for the state of the party. He does not suggest who, but the implication is that that person is the prime minister, and Tory MPs have made clear on Twitter it should not be Dowden.
Dowden said Tory supporters “deserve better than this” but does not expand on what “this” is.
Also notable is that while the letter itself is typed, the date has been handwritten, pointing perhaps to it having been ready to submit in advance.
Dowden’s resignation is the first indication of a chink in ministerial support for Johnson.
More dangerous for the prime minister is Dowden was one of his first backers for No 10, when others dismissed his chances.
Dowden makes clear in his letter than he “will, as always, remain loyal to the Conservative Party”. He does not make the same assurances over his loyalty to the prime minister.
Lib Dems have won Tiverton & Honiton
Richard Foord, of the Liberal Democrats, has won the Tiverton & Honiton by-election, taking the seat which the Tories had held with a majority of more than 24,000 in 2019.
Foord defeated the Tories’ Helen Hurford, who is said to have locked herself in the room previously reserved for media interviews and is refusing to speak to any press.
Foord won 22,537 votes to Hurford’s 16,393, giving him 52 per cent of the vote.
Labour has won back Wakefield from the Conservatives, having lost it in 2019 for the first time since 1932.
Simon Lightwood will become the constituency’s Labour MP. Nadeem Ahmed, the Conservative candidate, finished in second place. Lightfoot previously worked for Mary Creagh, the Labour MP for Wakefield between 2005 and 2019.
Lightwood won 13,166 votes to Ahmed’s 8,241, giving him a majority of 4,925. The Conservative majority in 2019 was 3,358.
Lib Dems claim they have won Tiverton & Honiton
The Liberal Democrats are confident of victory in Tiverton & Honiton. A party spokesman has said: “This is looking like a clear win. The people of Tiverton and Honiton have spoken up for the country. This is an historic victory for the Liberal Democrats and a devastating blow for those Conservative MPs who continue to prop up Boris Johnson.”
Sir Ed Davey, the party leader, has tweeted that he will need a “bigger hammer”, a reference to a publicity stunt after the by-election victory in Chesham & Amersham, when he took a mallet to a “blue wall” of Conservative seats.
If confirmed, it would be a significant turnaround: the Tory majority in 2019 was 24,239.
Turnouts revealed for both seats
The turnout in Wakefield has been confirmed as 39 per cent, with 27,205 ballots cast out of an electorate of 69,601. This is well below turnout in the constituency in general elections.
The turnout for Tiverton & Honiton has been confirmed as 52 per cent, with 42,707 votes cast. It was above 70 per cent in all general elections since its creation in 1997.
A quarter of recent by-elections resulted in the seat changing hands
These are the 60th and 61st by-elections since the 2005 general election.
As is normal in by-elections, these votes have attracted a larger-than-usual number of independent candidates, but the main contenders have still come from the main three parties.
In Wakefield, those to look out for are Labour’s Simon Lightwood and Nadeem Ahmed of the Conservatives.
Nadeem Ahmed, the Tory candidate in Wakefield
IAN FORSYTH/GETTY IMAGES
Simon Lightwood, the Labour candidate in Wakefield
TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER JAMES GLOSSOP
At this week’s prime minister’s questions, Starmer highlighted that Ahmed was standing “even though his own colleagues think he is so useless they held a vote of no confidence in him”. Ahmed made headlines last week by saying that the voters could trust the Tories again because the public still trusted GPs despite the crimes of Harold Shipman.
Lightwood previously worked for Mary Creagh, the Labour MP for Wakefield between 2005 and 2019.
In Tiverton & Honiton, the race is between Richard Foord of the Liberal Democrats and Helen Hurford of the Conservatives.
Helen Hurford was jeered after she dodged questions about Johnson’s integrity
Hurford, who has been shielded from the media, was booed during an event in the constituency over her comments on Johnson’s conduct.
Richard Foord, right, with his party leader, Sir Ed Davey
FINNBARR/WEBSTER/GETTY IMAGES
Foord, meanwhile, has promised to make school improvements a priority, including fixing the leaky roof at Tiverton High School. The school would usually be the venue for election counts, but this time votes will be totted up outside the constituency, at a leisure centre in Crediton, because the school is too small.
Although both Labour and the Lib Dems have said there was no pact in either seat to dial down campaigning, there has been a noticeable difference in the resources each party has thrown at the constituencies.
Tiverton & Honiton: a Conservative heartland
The constituency of Tiverton & Honiton was created in its present form in time for the 1997 general election. Since then, it has returned a Conservative MP at every election, with an increased margin of victory each time.
Counting agents observe the Tiverton & Honiton count in Crediton
JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP
Wakefield: a former Labour stronghold
When Labour lost Wakefield in the 2019 general election, it was the first time that the party had failed to return an MP for the seat in nearly nine decades.
With the polls having closed at 10pm, counting of the votes cast at this by-election has begun.
Votes being counted at Thornes Park Athletics Stadium
DANNY LAWSON/PA
By-election results expected
Welcome to The Times’s live coverage of the by-election results for Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton, where polls have closed and counting is under way.
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