Brazil gives flagging climate fight a timely boost

LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) – So far, 2022 has been a grim year in the fight against catastrophic global warming. Despite commanding the attention of the world at Glasgow’s COP26 summit, the Ukraine war and the energy crisis mean progress in national pledges to cut emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is “highly inadequate”. As such, the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as Brazil’s president counts as a tangible boost.

With 1.5 billion tonnes of annual GHGs, Brazil is the world’s sixth largest national emitter. Despite encompassing the world’s biggest rainforest, the Amazon, about 60% of these emissions come from changes in land use caused by deforestation, plus methane from cattle, reflecting the country’s status as the largest beef exporter. If Brazil properly implemented its own Forest Code, deforestation could drop by 90% by the end of the decade, Carbon Brief analysis estimates. Tree planting and restoration could then absorb the annual emissions caused by the so-called Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector by 2040.

Under the far-right Jair Bolsonaro, president since 2019, the opposite has happened. Curbs on environmental enforcement and illegal mining declined, and LULUCF emissions jumped. Compare that to Lula’s first presidency between 2003 and 2010, when they fell to way below the current level. Lula’s room for manoeuvre may be limited by his narrow victory, and government debt close to 80% of GDP this year. However, he is far more likely to honour Brazil’s COP26 pledge to reverse deforestation by 2030 than Bolsonaro.

As such, Lula’s victory has international importance. The LULUCF sector is often seen as a sideshow to emissions from power stations and cars, to the extent that the United Nations recently did a big push to raise awareness. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reckons world warming can only be kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times if the global 2030 deforestation pledge is kept.

More significantly, Brazil’s election has taken place as it has become increasingly obvious that the private sector will go no faster on decarbonisation than governments. Recent backsliding of ambitions among banks that participate in the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) has happened because political pressure has abated. A similar dynamic has allowed half of the world’s 350 biggest food companies to resist calls to create deforestation-free supply chains. That makes political developments like Lula’s victory all the more vital.

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Brazilian leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff election, but the far-right incumbent did not concede defeat on Oct. 30, raising concerns that he might contest the result.

The Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) declared Lula the next president, with 50.9% of votes against 49.1% for Bolsonaro. The 77-year-old Lula’s inauguration is scheduled for Jan. 1.

Editing by Neil Unmack and Oliver Taslic

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