Brazil election – live: Lula beats Bolsonaro to secure return as president

Supporters of former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva react to election results (AP)

Brazil‘s electoral authority said Sunday that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the leftist Worker’s Party defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro to become the country’s next president.

With 98.8% of the votes tallied in the runoff vote, da Silva had 50.8% and Bolsonaro 49.2%, and the election authority said da Silva’s victory was a mathematical certainty.

Da Silva — the country’s former president from 2003-2010 — has promised to restore the country’s more prosperous past, yet faces faces headwinds in a polarized society.

It is a stunning return to power for da Silva, 77, whose 2018 imprisonment over a corruption scandal sidelined him from that year’s election, paving the way for then-candidate Bolsonaro’s win and four years of far-right politics.

His victory marks the first time since Brazil‘s 1985 return to democracy that the sitting president has failed to win reelection. His inauguration is scheduled to take place on January 1.

Addional reporting by agencies

Key Points

Lula defeats Bolsonaro in presidential race

Lula passes Bolsonaro in election count

Voting closed

Most important election in our lives’: Millions in Brazil go to polls in high-stakes presidential vote

Elections regulator denies reports of illegal roadblocks

Lula defeats Bolsonaro in presidential race

23:03 , Joe Middleton

Former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil‘s bitterly-fought election on Sunday, denying hard right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro a second term.

It marks a stunning political comeback for Lula, who was jailed in 2018 for 19 months on bribery convictions that the Supreme Court overturned last year, clearing the way for him to seek a third presidential term.

Lula defeats Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential election

Pollster predicts Lula victory

22:29 , Joe Middleton

Brazilian pollster Datafolha on Sunday projected former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will win the country’s presidential election on Sunday, based on the ongoing tally of a runoff vote against incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

Story continues

Lula passes Bolsonaro in election count

21:58 , Joe Middleton

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took the lead in the ongoing vote tally of Sunday’s presidential election, moving ahead of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula had 50.01% of the vote compared with 49.99% for Bolsonaro, with 67.76% of voting machines counted, according to date published on the Supreme Electoral Court’s website.

Vote count update

21:31 , Joe Middleton

With 50.9% of the votes tallied in Brazil election, the candidates are very close with 50.3% for Bolsonaro, 49.7% for Lula.

Bolsonaro takes lead in initial vote count of Brazil election

20:47 , Joe Middleton

Jair Bolsonaro took an early lead in the initial vote tally of Sunday’s presidential election, ahead of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose Workers Party usually gets stronger support in regions that are slower to report results.

With 5.6% of voting machines counted, Bolsonaro had 53.2% of valid votes, compared with 46.8% for Lula, the Superior Electoral Court reported on its website.

Voting closed

20:08 , Joe Middleton

Voting is now closed in the presidential runoff election between president Jair Bolsonaro and his political nemesis, former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Elections regulator denies reports of illegal roadblocks

19:25 , Joe Middleton

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazil‘s elections, played down reports that the Federal Highway Police (PRF) had conducted illegal roadblocks of buses carrying voters across the poor northeast where Lula’s support is strongest.

Critics allege the PRF has become overtly pro-Bolsonaro, and that officers were seeking to hinder voting in Lula strongholds.

But Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice who is also head of the TSE, said no-one had been prevented from voting and all police operations on roads had ceased and would be investigated.

“The only issue for voters was that they were delayed,” Moraes told a news conference.

The PRF did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters.

‘Most important election in our lives’: Millions in Brazil go to polls in high-stakes presidential vote

18:56 , Joe Middleton

Millions of Brazilians are voting in the most momentous election in the country’s recent history amid great uncertainty over the outcome and deep trepidation about what will unfold in the aftermath.

The latest opinion polls gave Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left-wing former leader widely known as Lula, a lead of between 4 and 8 per cent over the hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro.

This should, in theory, point towards a slender victory for Lula following a bitter election race filled with accusations and recriminations. The polls, however, played a part in inaccurate predictions that the 77-year old would win in the first round with the backing of more than 50 per cent of the electorate. Officials in his team have been cautious about claiming victory in the presidential run-off.

Kim Sengupta reports for us from Sao Paulo.

‘Most important election in our lives’: Millions go to polls in Brazil

Brazil’s federal highway police making it difficult for people to vote – reports

18:20 , Joe Middleton

Tom Phillips, The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, is reporting allegations in Brazil that the federal highway police are making it difficult for people to vote.

Looming elections in US, Brazil pose test for Musk’s Twitter

17:27 , Joe Middleton

Pivotal elections in Brazil and the United States will present an early test to Twitter‘s new owner Elon Musk and his promise to ease up on the platform’s policies on misinformation.

Voters in both nations have already faced a torrent of misleading claims about candidates, issues and voting. That torrent could become a deluge if Musk makes good on his vows to roll back Twitter’s rules just as millions of voters prepare to cast a ballot.

“This is the most critical time for this work, right before an election,” said Alejandra Caraballo, an instructor at Harvard Law School‘s Cyberlaw Clinic who has been monitoring the online response to Musk’s purchase. “We’re going to see a test run with the election in Brazil this Sunday, when we’ll see how bad things get.”

Looming elections in US, Brazil pose test for Musk’s Twitter

Brazil election: What to know about the high-stakes race

16:50 , Joe Middleton

Brazilians have headed to the polls today to vote in a presidential election featuring two political titans and bitter rivals that could usher in another four years of far-right politics or return a leftist to the nation’s top job.

On one side is incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain who built a base of hardcore support as a culture warrior with a conservative ideology.

He has deployed government funds in what is widely seen as an effort to drum up last-minute votes. His adversary, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has sought to kindle nostalgia for his years presiding over an economic boom and social inclusion.

Here’s what you need to know about the Brazilian presidential runoff:

Brazil election: What to know about the high-stakes race

Trump backs ‘fantastic’ Bolsonaro

16:19 , Joe Middleton

Jair Bolsonaro is Brazil’s Donald Trump – and this election could break the country

15:40 , Joe Middleton

Brazil is going through the most important presidential election in its history. On 30 October, voters will decide who will be the president of the country with the largest population in South America and the fourth largest democracy in the world, writes James N. Green.

Voters will also determine the success or failure of a new global movement of the populist extreme right that has in the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, its national leader, and in the ex-US president, Donald Trump, its best-known exponent worldwide.

The political phenomenon that Bolsonaro and Trump embody has a fundamental characteristic: using the democratic process and then weakening it so that it becomes unrecognisable and incapable of containing its presidents’ authoritarian excesses.

Opinion: Jair Bolsonaro is Brazil’s Donald Trump

Pictured: voters queue at polling stations in Brazil

15:16 , Joe Middleton

Voters queue at a polling station during a presidential a run-off election pitting President Jair Bolsonaro against former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (REUTERS)

Voters arrive to a polling station during a presidential a run-off election pitting President Jair Bolsonaro against former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (AP)

Voters queue at a polling station during a presidential a run-off election pitting President Jair Bolsonaro against former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (REUTERS)

14:40 , Sam Rkaina

Lula voted at a school in Bernardo do Campo, in Sao Paulo, where he arrived with his running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and several other members of his team.

A victory for Lula would mark a stunning comeback for the leftist leader, who was jailed in 2018 for 19 months on bribery convictions that the Supreme Court overturned last year, clearing the way for him to seek a third presidential term.

Lula has vowed a return to state-driven economic growth and social policies that helped lift millions out of poverty during a commodity boom when he first governed Brazil.

He also vows to combat destruction of the Amazon rainforest, now at a 15-year high, and make Brazil a leader in global climate talks.

A second term for Bolsonaro would keep Brazil on a path of free-market reforms and looser environmental protections, while cementing a coalition of right-wing parties and powerful farm interests, which bankrolled his campaign.

(AP)

Brazil’s sharp partisan division has split population in two

14:20 , Sam Rkaina

With Bolsonaro stickers on her chest, Rio de Janeiro resident Ana Maria Vieira said she was certain to vote for the president, and would never countenance picking Lula.

“I saw what Lula and his criminal gang did to this country,” she said, as she arrived to vote in Rio’s Copacabana neighborhood, adding that she thought Bolsonaro’s handling of the economy had been “fantastic.”

At the same polling station, Antonia Cordeiro, 49, said she had just voted for Lula.

She said Bolsonaro had only worried about the concerns of the rich, at least until the final days of the campaign when he rolled out poverty-busting measures to win votes.

“We can’t continue with Bolsonaro, she said. “He hasn’t worked.”

Thousands of Brazilians living in Ireland cast their votes

13:30 , Sam Rkaina

Thousands of Brazilians living in Ireland have cast their votes in the election for their country’s next president.

A long queue formed early on Sunday at Croke Park in Dublin, where the polls opened at 8am.

Some 12,000 Brazilians are registered in Ireland.

Around 8,000 in Ireland voted in the first round of the race between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro.

Some in the queue were wearing red in support of Mr da Silva, known mononymously as Lula, while others were expressing their support for Mr Bolsonaro.

Brazil’s ambassador to Ireland, Marcel Biato, said they expected to see a good turnout on Sunday.

“They have to be Brazilian citizens and they have to be registered to vote in Ireland,” he told the PA news agency.

With electronic voting being used, results are expected around three hours after the closing of the polls.

Mr Biato said there around 156 million people are eligible to vote in Brazil and 500,000 overseas.

“It’s all tallied electronically; we have a very secure system which has been in use for about 35 years,” he said.

“It’s a very secure system, which means people can be very comfortable and know that their vote counts.”

Geneci da Cruz iu Fhatharta travelled from Galway to cast her ballot.

“We do need to make that effort to travel long hours to come and vote for Lula,” she said.

Alberto dos Santos, who lives in Dublin, turned out to vote for Mr Bolsonaro.

He said he feels there are more Lula supporters in Dublin, but more who support Mr Bolsonaro in Brazil.

Brazilians from all over Ireland queue at Croke Park in Dublin to vote in their country’s presidential election (Niall Carson/PA) (PA Wire)

Voter says they were ‘starving’ before da Silva

13:00 , Sam Rkaina

Voting stations in the capital, Brasilia, were already crowded by morning and, at one of them, retired public servant Luiz Carlos Gomes said he would vote for da Silva.

“He’s the best for the poor, especially in the countryside,” said Gomes, 65, who hails from Maranhao state in the poor northeast region. “We were always starving before him.”

More than 120 million Brazilians are expected to cast ballots, and because the vote is conducted electronically, the final result is usually available within hours after voting stations close in late afternoon.

Most opinion polls gave a lead to da Silva, universally known as Lula, though political analysts agreed the race grew increasingly tight in recent weeks.

(AP)

Bolsonaro casts his vote

12:13 , Sam Rkaina

Bolsonaro was first in line to cast his vote at a military complex in Rio de Janeiro.

He sported the green and yellow colors of the Brazilian flag that always feature at his rallies.

“I’m expecting our victory, for the good of Brazil,” he told reporters afterward. “God willing, Brazil will be victorious today.”

(REUTERS)

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

Voters queue up to vote on Sunday

11:13 , Sam Rkaina

Brazilians have began voting this morning in a polarizing presidential runoff election.

It’s just after 8am in the country, and members of the public have been seen queuing up to have their say. It is expected to be a close contest between President Jair Bolsonaro and his political nemesis, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

(REUTERS)

(REUTERS)

Bolsonaro claimed electronic voting machines are prone to fraud

10:20 , Sam Rkaina

The president’s digital mobilization was on display in recent days as his campaign introduced fresh — and unproven — claims of possible electoral manipulation.

That revived fears that Bolsonaro could challenge election results should he lose — much like Donald Trump, whom he admires.

For months, he claimed that the nation’s electronic voting machines are prone to fraud, though he never presented evidence, even after the electoral authority set a deadline for him to do so.

More recently, allegations focused on airtime for political ads. Bolsonaro’s campaign claimed that radio stations failed to air more than 150,000 electoral spots and implied that might have resulted from an intentionally malicious effort to hurt his candidacy.

The electoral authority declined to open an investigation, citing lack of evidence. “We don’t know whether this result will be contested or not, and to what extent,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo.

“It’s a very tough second round and a very tense Sunday, and tensions may continue beyond today.”

Da Silva was jailed – and then convictions annulled

09:50 , Sam Rkaina

A sprawling investigation revealed Silva’s Workers’ Party involvement in vast corruption scandals that ensnared top politicians and executives.

Da Silva himself was imprisoned for 19 months for corruption and money laundering. The Supreme Court annulled his convictions in 2019, on the grounds that the judge was biased and colluded with prosecutors.

That did not stop Bolsonaro from reminding voters of the convictions. Da Silva’s potential election would be like letting a thief return to the scene of the crime, the president warned.

(Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

Candidates battled with online smear campaigns

09:20 , Sam Rkaina

The candidates presented few proposals for the country’s future beyond affirming they will continue a big welfare program for the poor, despite very limited fiscal room going forward.

They railed against one another and launched online smear campaigns — with considerably more attacks coming from Bolsonaro’s camp.

His four years in office have been marked by proclaimed conservatism and defense of traditional Christian values.

He claimed without any evidence that da Silva’s return to power would usher in communism, legalized drugs, abortion and the persecution of churches.

Da Silva homed in on Bolsonaro’s widely criticized handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and said the president failed to care for society’s neediest members.

And he painted Bolsonaro as an opponent of the Amazon rainforest, given that he defanged environmental authorities and presided over a surge in deforestation.

In campaign videos, da Silva also took aim at Bolsonaro for being behind a policy directing billions to lawmakers for pet projects in exchange for political support.

It is referred to as the “secret budget,” due to a lack of transparency around the money’s final uses, and da Silva said it depleted funds for key social spending.

‘Politically, Bolsonaro is stronger than had been imagined’

08:59 , Sam Rkaina

Candidates in Brazil who finish ahead in the first round tend to win the runoff.

But political scientist Rodrigo Prando said this campaign is so atypical that a Bolsonaro win could not be ruled out.

The president secured endorsements from governors of the three most populous states, and allied politicians scored big wins in congressional races.

“Politically, Bolsonaro is stronger than had been imagined,” said Prando, a professor at Mackenzie Presbyterian University in Sao Paulo. “Mathematically, Lula is in front.”

Twelve gubernatorial races will also be decided, among them Brazil’s most populous state, Sao Paulo, Amazonas state and northeastern Bahia state.

More than 150 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, yet about 20% of the electorate abstained in the first round.

The Supreme Court has issued a ruling enabling state capitals to provide free public transport on election day, and both da Silva and Bolsonaro have focused efforts on driving turnout.

(Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

More than 120 million Brazilians expected to cast ballots

08:17 , Sam Rkaina

The vote will determine if the world’s fourth-largest democracy stays the same course of far-right politics or returns a leftist to the top job — and, in the latter case, whether Bolsonaro will accept defeat.

More than 120 million Brazilians are expected to cast ballots, but because the vote is conducted electronically, the final result is usually available within hours after voting stations close in late afternoon.

Most opinion polls gave a lead to da Silva, universally known as Lula, though political analysts agreed the race grew increasingly tight in recent weeks.

For months, it appeared that da Silva was headed for easy victory as he kindled nostalgia for his 2003-2010 presidency, when Brazil’s economy was booming and welfare helped tens of millions join the middle class.

But in the Oct. 2 first-round elections, da Silva finished first among the 11 candidates with 48% of the votes, while Bolsonaro was second at 43%, showing opinion polls significantly underestimated the president’s popularity.

Many Brazilians support Bolsonaro’s defense of conservative social values and he has shored up support with vast government spending.

(Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

Tight race offers second chance for both candidates

07:47 , Sam Rkaina

Bolsonaro has vowed to consolidate a sharp conservative turn in Brazilian politics after a presidency marred by the pandemic.

Lula promises more social and environmental responsibility, recalling the rising prosperity of his 2003-2010 presidency, before corruption scandals tarred his Workers Party.

Some 120 million voters are expected to punch their choices into electronic voting machines that Bolsonaro has criticized without proof as fraud-prone, raising concern he may not concede defeat, following the example of ideological ally, former US President Donald Trump.

That has added to tensions in the Brazil’s most polarizing election since its return democracy in 1985 after a military dictatorship that Lula, a former union leader, rallied against and Bolsonaro, a former army captain, invokes with nostalgia.

Brazil president makes Argentina a campaign boogeyman

07:00 , Stuti Mishra

As a Brazilian journalist living in Argentina, Luciana Taddeo says she spends ever-more effort rebutting ever-crazier rumours.

There were claims that Argentina’s presidential palace had been invaded, that people had to leave keys in their cars’ ignitions so the government could use them at any time, that the government had abolished the right to inherit properties.

Many of those rumours have been fanned by the presidential election in neighbouring Brazil, where incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro has turned Argentina — already a bitter football rival — into a sort of political boogeyman, a warning of the horrors his nation could face if it elects leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Read more:

Brazil president makes Argentina a campaign boogeyman

Fears Bolsonaro will refuse to accept defeat

06:40 , Stuti Mishra

The last hours of the toxic contest between hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro and left-wing former leader Lula Inacio Lula da Silva, widely known simply as Lula, saw bitter accusations and recriminations as well as repeated warnings of possible widespread violence in the aftermath of Sunday’s polls.

There are serious concerns that Mr Bolsonaro, a former army captain who revels in his moniker of “Trump of the Tropics”, will refuse to accept defeat and trigger a violent confrontation with his armed supporters taking to the streets.

Kim Sengupta has more:

Bolsonaro ‘may refuse to accept defeat’ as bitter Brazil election goes down to wire

From prison to presidency, Brazil’s Lula could make stunning political comeback

06:15 , Stuti Mishra

It could be one of the most dramatic of all political rehabilitations, writes David Harding.

During the last Brazilian general election in 2018, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was in a prison cell, serving a 12-year sentence on corruption charges as part of the “Car Wash” scandal which shook the foundations of Brazilian politics, threatened to end his career, and paved the way for the controversial, far-right Jair Bolsonaro to triumph in an unlikely victory.

This Sunday, “Lula” could be confirmed as the country’s next president and, to cap the biggest of all comebacks for the left-winger, it would be at the expense of his chief political rival, Bolsonaro in a run-off.

Read more:

From prison to presidency, Brazil’s Lula could make stunning political comeback

Brazilians set to vote in polarising runoff election

05:51 , Stuti Mishra

Brazilians are set to vote today in a polarising presidential election runoff that pits an incumbent vowing to safeguard conservative Christian values against a former president promising to return the country to a more prosperous past.

The runoff shaped up as a close contest between president Jair Bolsonaro and his political nemesis, former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Both are well-known, divisive political figures who stir passion as much as loathing.

The vote will determine if the world’s fourth-largest democracy stays the same course of far-right politics or returns a leftist to the top job – and, in the latter case, whether Mr Bolsonaro will accept defeat.

More than 120 million Brazilians are expected to cast ballots, but because the vote is conducted electronically, the final result is usually available within hours after voting stations close in late afternoon.

Most opinion polls gave a lead to Mr da Silva, universally known as Lula, though political analysts agreed the race grew increasingly tight in recent weeks.

An electoral worker installs an electronic voting machine at a polling station in preparation for the presidential run-off election, in Brasilia, Brazil (AP)

05:23 , Stuti Mishra

Good morning! Welcome to The Independent’s live coverage of the 2022 Brazilian election. Stay tuned for the latest!