Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans odds, picks and prediction

The Boston Celtics (15-14) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (12-17) at the Smoothie King Center Sunday for a 3:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Celtics-Pelicans odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Boston split a two-game series with the Atlanta Hawks by beating them 121-109 as 4.5-point road favorites Friday. The Celtics are just 3-3 overall and ATS over their last six games due to their lack of ball security.

The Pelicans are 1-5 overall and ATS in their previous six games with back-to-back losses entering Sunday. New Orleans has by far the worst 3-point defense and lowest defensive rating over that stretch.

These teams split last season’s series 1-1 with the home team winning and covering in each meeting.

Celtics at Pelicans: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

Celtics at Pelicans: Key injuries

Celtics

Pelicans

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Celtics at Pelicans: Odds, lines, predictions and picks Prediction

Celtics 119, Pelicans 117

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight lean on Pelicans (+125) because I like New Orleans plus the points and sometimes I’ll sprinkle on an underdog’s money line if taking them to cover.

However, since the beginning of last season, New Orleans has won just 30.3% of its games a road ‘dog with a minus-7.5-point average margin.

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Against the spread (ATS)

New Orleans’ aggressiveness will help it hang around in this one. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Pelicans attempt the 2nd-highest rate of shots at the rim while the Celtics are 27th in defensive field goal percentage of attempts at the rim.

Also, New Orleans runs and scores the most putback points and putback plays per miss, per CleaningTheGlass.com, and scores the 2nd-most second-chance points per game. These are areas of struggle for Boston who give up the 2nd-most putback points per play and is 26th in opponent’s second-chance points per game.

Finally, the Pelicans have the 4th-highest free-throw attempt rate and the Celtics are 27th in defense FT/FGA rate. BET PELICANS +2.5 (-105) for a half-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

There are a couple of reasons to like both offenses in this matchup. Boston is a top-10 3-point shooting team and New Orleans has the 28th-ranked 3-point shooting defense.

And in transition, Boston is 2nd in both points per possession and effective field goal percentage whereas New Orleans is bottom-5 in both metrics on the defensive end of the floor.

Furthermore, New Orleans has an above-average shooting percentage on mid-range jumpers whereas Boston is 24th in defensive field goal percentage on mid-range attempts, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

OVER 231.5 (-115) for 1 unit is my favorite play in Celtics-Pelicans.

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