Blues vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Tavares Fires Away Against St. Louis

Morgan Rielly’s suspension has left a dark cloud over the team heading into their game against the Blues, but with the team looking to get back on track, our NHL picks expect John Tavares to come out swinging.

Last Updated: Feb 13, 2024 11:31 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

We’ve got 11 games on the NHL docket tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the St. Louis Blues.

Life without Morgan Rielly begins tonight for the Leafs, yet the NHL odds still favor them heavily tonight against St. Louis. I’m circling John Tavares to be the spark for Toronto tonight to galvanize the group after an emotional loss to Ottawa on Saturday night. 

Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Blues vs. Maple Leafs on February 13.

Blues vs Maple Leafs odds Blues vs Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs and St. Louis Blues will face off for the first time this season. 

The Leafs will be undermanned on the backend as Morgan Rielly awaits his impending suspension, which is not ideal for Toronto as it hosts a Blues team that has won seven of their last eight games.

Upon review of that eight-game stretch, I noticed St. Louis had been outshot in six of those eight games, allowing 32+ shots in six of those contests. Thus, a Maple Leafs shot prop feels like the way to go for the best bet for tonight. 

Enter John Tavares. 

The Leafs’ captain has his shot prop set at 3.5 tonight, a number he’s gone Over on in seven of his last nine games played, averaging 4.3 shots per game over that stretch. 

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Blues rank 29th in shots given up per 60 minutes this season at 5-on-5, while also giving up the third most high-danger chances.

This bodes well for a player like Tavares, who is one high-danger shot shy of leading the league in shots from that area and has been fairly trigger happy since returning from the NHL All-Star break. He should be given ample opportunity to work himself into the middle of the ice and get pucks on net to get Over on his prop total. 

Plus, with Rielly set to miss the game after his reaction to Ridley Greig Saturday night, the Leafs could use that incident as a galvanizing turning point in their season, and no one is better equipped to step up with an emotional game than the captain. 

My best bet: John Tavares Over 3.5 shots on goal (-135 at SIA)

Blues vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

John Tavares anytime goalscorer

Leafs Over 3.5 goals

Blues Over 2.5 goals

For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’ll mirror my Tavares shot prop with an anytime goal from the Leafs captain. The Blues are susceptible to giving up high-danger chances in the middle of the ice, and Tavares has cooked from that area this season and is overdue for a goal at 5-on-5. 

Next up, I like for the Leafs to go Over their team total of 3.5 goals. They nearly average that on a nightly basis but match up well against a team like St. Louis, which struggles to defend the slot area of the ice. This is a spot where the Leafs have generated a lot of offense from this year, and I think they’ll do it again tonight. 

For my final leg, let’s roll with the Over on the Blues goal total tonight as well. It’s currently set at 2.5 goals, and St. Louis has gone Over that number in seven of its last eight games and in four straight meetings vs. Toronto. Factor in Rielly’s absence from the Leafs lineup, and that blue line looks thin. St. Louis should also find success tonight on the offensive end in what I expect to be a higher-scoring game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Blues vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as -200 favorites on home ice, with the Blues entering as the road dogs at +165 odds. The value here is on the Blues, who have cashed on the moneyline in seven of their last eight games and have beaten Toronto in seven of the 10 meetings between the two. 

The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, with the Under being slightly favored at -115 and the Over at -105 odds. I took both squads to go Over their totals for our parlay, so the Over should be the play on the total. It’s cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams, and I don’t see why it shouldn’t again here tonight with both squads struggling defensively. 

Blues vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 14-36 against the spread this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Maple Leafs.

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Blues vs Maple Leafs game info Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada Date: Tuesday, February 13, 2024 Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET TV: TSN4, BSMW Blues vs Maple Leafs latest injuries

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