Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks: Fade Bichette against a sinkerballer

The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series in Boston on Tuesday to begin a 12-game stretch against teams with losing records.

The pregame narrative: Bo Bichette is unlikely to thrive in an unfavourable matchup, George Springer has been hitting well since returning from the IL, and Danny Jansen has a good chance to come through with a big hit.

Here are our Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks for Aug. 23.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks overview

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks

Best bet: Bo Bichette under 0.5 runs (-110)

Entering the season, the idea of fading Bichette on this kind of prop would’ve been unthinkable.

A lot has changed since then.

The young shortstop is in the midst of the worst year of his career (104 wRC+), which has led to a demotion from the top third of the lineup. That new role, combined with an OBP below .300, makes him unlikely to score in any given game.

On Tuesday, Bichette will deal with Red Sox starter Josh Winckowski, who has poor overall numbers but may have the stuff to shut down the shortstop. The rookie’s most common pitch against right-handed hitters is the sinker (49.7% usage), and that’s an offering that has baffled Bichette all year.

According to Baseball Savant’s run value, out of 469 hitters with at least 10 plate appearances ending on sinkers this season Bichette ranks 443rd (-5).

The 24-year-old hasn’t been great against Winckowski’s second most-used pitch, the slider, either. Bichette has hit .241 and slugged .391 against that offering, good for a 0 run value.

The combination of a subpar season, a tricky matchup and a current nine-game stretch where he’s hitting .182/.206/.212 is enough for us to fade Bichette.

Key stat: Bichette has scored one run in his last nine games.

Read more: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks

Quick picks

Springer over 1.5 total bases (-107): Although Springer’s health remains an open question his production hasn’t wavered.

Since returning from the IL the outfielder has gone 10-for-16, and he’s done well against Winckowski’s top pitch — hitting .338 and slugging .500 against sinkers this year. His career numbers at Fenway Park (.847 OPS) are also rock-solid, and as a right-handed hitter with pop he’s always a threat to use the Green Monster to clear this line with one swing.

Read more: Odds to win the World Series

Jansen to hit a home run (+460): This may seem counterintuitive with Jansen’s bat running cold in recent weeks, but he’s in a perfect spot to heat it back up. The catcher’s approach of pulling everything in the air can result in some harmless outs, but it’s perfect for Fenway Park.

Jansen hit two home runs in his last trip to Fenway, and like Springer, he’s got excellent numbers against sinkers. The 27-year-old has slugged .686 against that pitch over the last two seasons with six home runs, which will put him in good stead against Winckowski.

Odds as of 11:07 a.m. ET on 08/23/22.

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Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne SHARE:

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