Blue Jays face a dilemma down the stretch with Alek Manoah

The Toronto Blue Jays haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, but they have October on their mind, planning several scenarios that could play out over the final 13 games of the regular season.

One of their toughest decisions pertains to their ace, Alek Manoah. Do they pitch him as often as possible to give them the best chance of advancing up the standings, or do they save their number one bullet for the postseason?

This comes off the heels of a comment by Blue Jays manager John Schneider, telling Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that the team would opt to use Manoah in the final game of the regular season if necessary to help them secure home field advantage in the Wild Card series.

It’s a delicate situation for the Blue Jays, as they’ve pushed back their ace to start Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays, rather than Friday. He’ll receive an extra day of rest to help preserve his arm, which at this rate could eclipse the 200-inning mark.

But Schneider’s comment irked some fans, as using Manoah in the regular season finale against the Baltimore Orioles would take him out of the running to pitch in a first-round Wild Card series.

In that scenario, Toronto’s rotation would set up as Kevin Gausman, Ross Stripling, and Jose Berrios for a three-game series. And judging by Berrios’ latest outing, a two-inning six earned run effort against the Rays at Tropicana Field, the Blue Jays have a lot to consider.

If the Blue Jays find themselves in a scenario where they’re playing the final game of the Wild Card series, and the Mr. Hyde version of Berrios rears his ugly head like he did in last night’s debacle at Tropicana Field, then what happens?

Part of the calculus likely has to do with innings pitched for Manoah. This late in the season, the team needs to do everything in their power to preserve his arm for these high leverage games. An extra day of rest could be the boost he needs to work his best down the stretch.

But it’s a dangerous proposition for the Blue Jays to subtract their best starting pitcher out of the first round. There’s a big drop-off in reliability from Manoah-Gausman-Stripling to Gausman-Stripling-Berrios.

For argument’s sake, say the Blue Jays are playing for home field advantage in game 162. They opt to have Manoah start the game, say they lose the game, and not only do they lose him for the opening round of the postseason, now they’re playing on the road, the very thing they were trying to avoid.

It’s a calculus that’s evolving by the day for the Blue Jays, whose magic number stands at eight to clinch a playoff spot. The earliest they could secure a postseason berth is this coming Monday, but that would require winning the next four straight games, and the Orioles dropping their next four as well.

This Catch 22 goes the other way as well; what if the Blue Jays secured a playoff spot on Game 162, they opt to give the ball to Mitch White in the regular season series finale, they lose, but they head out on the road with Manoah in Game 1?

That feels like the safer option to play the long game, but banking on White with home field advantage on the line isn’t a safe bet at all. Not that they’d be punting that game by starting White, but it would line up their starting rotation much better against their postseason opponent.

However, even if the Blue Jays head to Seattle or Tampa Bay for the Wild Card series, in that case at least they’d have their two best pitchers on the bump to start the series: Manoah and Gausman. Besides, Gausman’s road splits this season are much better than at home anyway, and Manoah’s basically the same pitcher at home and on the road this season.

Unless the Blue Jays organization feels that strongly about home field advantage that they’re willing to do anything to play under the roof at Rogers Centre, it seems like a scenario that has potential to backfire on this team.

If the Blue Jays emerge as the first Wild Card team, they’d host their first postseason games at home since 2016. Anyone who witnessed what happened with this team in 2015 and 2016 knows the home crowds at Rogers Centre are electric. But is all this worth jeopardizing just to have these home games north of the border?

Behind the scenes, there are a myriad of factors going into decisions like these for the organization. It’s not a decision that’s taken lightly, and the Blue Jays will put a lot of thought and care into the ultimate choice for Manoah and the team.

All this could be moot anyway if the Blue Jays finish strong and distance themselves from the Rays and Mariners in the Wild Card race. Or they could sit comfortably in the third Wild Card spot and not have a say in this matter.

But if it boils down to the last game of the regular season, and the Blue Jays can determine their own fate by winning and securing the top Wild Card spot, one can understand why they’d shoot their shot.

The Blue Jays are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If Manoah pitches in game 162 and Toronto loses the Wild Card series, people will second guess that decision. Conversely, if the Jays save Manoah for the Wild Card opener, but they play on the road and lose the series, people will criticize that decision as well.

It’s all about trust. The Blue Jays have to trust the stallions that carried them this far. From the outside looking in, mitigating risk in the playoffs seems like the most important thing here, but trusting players to get the job done is a bet most teams will gladly make.