Blair Gibson’s Doomben tips

MEETING COMMENT: A bit of rain through the week has left us with a SOFT 7 surface. The track should play fairly but scratching’s have knocked the day around a fair bit. Rail 1m+

BEST BET: Race 7 #1 – AXE

NEXT BEST: Race 6 #1 – WHISPERED

QUADDIE:

Leg 1: 1,12

Leg 2: 1,5,7

Leg 3: 4,9

Leg 4: 1,3,4,7

Race 1

2 – BAYERISCHE

1 – HINGED

3 – OUR RED PLANET

4 – VALLEY RATTLER

They won’t be writing books about this race to kick the day off. The main players HINGED and BAYERISCHE clashed last start on a heavy Ipswich track over this trip. HINGED was able to walk them along and find a kick to win in the straight. It was bottomless that day and on a better surface I really think there is a split hair between them. Slight lean to BAYERISCHE as he was a collect for us at big odds two back and he gets the 1kg swing in his favour. HINGED clearly the other winning hope in a plain race. Surprised BAYERISCHE is 2-3x the price of HINGED so see him as the value.

Race 2

7 – TAKEITTOTHELIMIT

8 – WILD SHEILA

1 – TAVION PRINCE

2 – TOTAL RECALL

Another ordinary race and there is no upside in any of these. Can’t bet into it personally. TAKEITTOTHELIMIT and WILD SHEILA would have been the way I went from draws but the outside gates don’t help. WILD SHEILA doesn’t have early speed and then pulls which has forced Cassidy to go early her last couple, may be forced to do the same. They have been way too passive on TAKEITTOTHELIMIT and she continues to run some of the best splits late without winning. They need to put her into the race and give her a chance.

Race 3

6 – ABLE MABEL

7 – TRENGGANU

3 – MAN IN MOTION

2 – COLPO DI TAMBURO

ABLE MABEL comes here fresh off a good enough trial. A really good race record (5:3:0:1) and in the astute Lockwood yard. Always respect his horses and this Spirit Of Boom mare should still have upside. She’s proved herself on all ground and draws soft to get a good run in transit for Thompson. Thought TRENGGANU would knock up winning races in Qld but has really mixed form for no reason. Extremely hard to catch and just respect any money moves as the stable can improve them sharply. Like ABLE MABEL but $1.75 is not inviting to be honest.

Race 4

5 – SEENTOOMANY

6 – INDISPENSABLE

8 – CINQUEDEA

Danger race here and scratching’s have knocked it around. SEENTOOMANY snuck down to Randwick last start and was able to win at $30+. Got back there, got to the outside and simply too good. Comes here 4th up, rock hard fit and in good form. INDISPENSABLE has been good since arriving in Qld and this sets up well. He has the ability to go forward and this looks to be run at a very slow tempo. Thompson in form and gets to dictate to them. Might be a case of the best tactics/ride wins.

Race 5

5 – GOOD CHAT

3 – NORDICUS

6 – MCCOVEY COVE

9 – LUSKIN HERO

Was initially keen to risk MCCOVEY COVE from the horror gate but after 10 scratching’s he know has to be respected. He’s only had the six career runs to date and yet to miss a place. NORDICUS has been good at both runs for the new stables and the last start win was particularly good. Run along at an even tempo and just kept finding under pressure. From the good gate should get a nice run and be in the finish. LUSKIN HERO also draws well and may stalk NORDICUS in the run which would be ideal. Looking for a hat-trick of wins and Stewart rides. GOOD CHAT was very good last prep and bumped into some pretty handy horses and formlines (including 2nd placing’s to Garibaldi and Shooting For Gold). 1st up since Feb and no official trials makes it tricky to assess. Also goes from Boss/Byrne to the 3kg apprentice but gets in with 53.5kg because of the claim. Might just come down to your trust in the apprentice.

Race 6

1 – WHISPERED

12 – MAHUSSEY

2 – BRYNEICH

5 – FAST TRAIN

Another race where there is no speed even though it’s a big field. This starting point is on a corner so at least a few are going to have to change tactics and be positive early, it’s just a guess who. MAHUSSEY has a really good run in her but she mixes her form terribly. Three back she bolted in at Toowoomba, two back beaten 4L as an odds on fav and last start was excellent attacking the line late at the GC. Good gate, Fradd can get cover and land in first three pairs which should be an advantage. WHISPERED was racing handy down south but since joining the new stable has been getting further back in his races up here. They just have to be semi-aggressive here and hold a spot in front of midfield. If they do he might be the horse they all have to beat and does look well placed to peak here 4th up from a break.

Race 7

1 – AXE

7 – STUTTERING

5 – GEE TEE TEE

After a famous spray from Heathcote to Mark Du Plessis last prep the jock is back on here and off that you’d say he won’t be handing up the lead from the inside this time. They will try to hold out AXE who jumps from gate 2. STUTTERING has raced in decent grade his whole career and a live chance again in this. If they are both able to hold the lead or land in the first two pairs it should suit the leaders and they should have the race between them. AXE looked home in the Listed race last start before getting mowed down late. Back to 1200m is no concern and he’s a horse who has improved all prep. Gets thing in his favour and the one they have to beat. GEE TEE TEE can be forgiven the last run and his form before that was as good as he’s ever gone. Gets the gun run behind the leaders here and every possible chance.

Race 8

4 – ROMAN AUREUS

9 – ZIEMBA

11 – READY TO HUMBLE

Have always been a fan of ROMAN AUREUS and it’s hard not to be with his race record (16:5:4:2). He resumed at Ipswich where he was held up in the straight and ran 2nd to odds-on fav Desert Lord. Went over the line there with ZIEMBA who is another winning hope here. ROMAN AUREUS is 4/4 this track/trip and if there is a concern it’s just if he gets bottled up three back the fence. ZIEMBA may have to land in the second half of the field from the gate but does run well 2nd up (3:2:0:1). Another consistent horse sure to be around the money and get fresh air getting to the outside in the straight.

Race 9

7 – KINGSTON’S HERE

1 – FLEET DOVE

3 – ROLLINWITHTHELOW

4 – STAROSA

These 3yr old races are always highly competitive and this is no different. There are a handful of these that aren’t natural leaders but they have enough speed to go forward and offset sticky gates. KINGSTON’S HERE went back from the bad gate last start and savaged the line but found one better. They put a gap in the rest of them and he is still on the improve. I’m assuming they will try to find the back of REDOUTE’S IMAGE early and can a free tow into the race. FLEET DOVE rarely runs a bad race and was only beaten 0.4L at Listed level last start. Clever claim for a good apprentice here and she will look the winner at some part of the straight. REDOUTE’S IMAGE is looking for a hat-trick and is in great form, this is a touch harder though. STAROSA is the one who has drawn poorly and wouldn’t be surprised if they were positive early. If they don’t and ROLLINWITHTHEFLOW is able to lead I think he can run a cheeky race. Don’t feel hard on the fence was the best spot Ipswich cup day and he might have been better than it looked.