Biggest X-Factors That Will Decide Lakers vs. Warriors 2nd-Round Playoff Series

Biggest X-Factors That Will Decide Lakers vs. Warriors 2nd-Round Playoff Series

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LeBron James and Stephen CurryEzra Shaw/Getty Images

Headlining discussions abound in the NBA playoffs clash between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers.

Stephen Curry vs. LeBron James. Draymond Green vs. Anthony Davis. The reality that Golden State and Los Angeles are entering as sixth and seventh seeds, respectively. More LeBron vs. Steph. Television-rating bonanzas. Legacy debates. The longevity of title windows. And then some more Steph vs. LeBron.

Those conversations all matter. But playoff series are so much more than the most compelling (and obvious) storylines. They are, to some extent, determined by subplots—players and adjustments and questions that exist adjacent to the spotlight.

For consistency’s sake, none of the top-three names from Golden State or L.A. will be eligible to appear here. LeBron, Steph, AD, Draymond, D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson have my sincerest apologies. This space is for the—[insert dramatic pause]—X-factors.

Kevon Looney

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Kevon LooneyEzra Shaw/Getty Images

Playoff-mode Kevon Looney verges on generational at this point—someone so incontestably critical he almost graduates from the X-factor discussion.

Almost.

Looney’s importance only increases against the Lakers. His playmaking is crucial to optimizing both single- and dual-big lineups, and he will once again have his work cut out for him on the boards.

The latter battle is inextricably tied to Anthony Davis, who has so far been unplayable on the glass. Both his defensive (27.8) and offensive (9.0) rebounding rates would be career postseason highs. Keeping him under control will predominantly fall to Looney. (Related: Sign me up for eight games of these two duking it out on misses.)

So, too, will matching up with him in general. The Warriors can always pull at the Draymond Green-on-AD thread, but their defensive disruption forever crescendos if he’s stashed elsewhere and allowed to roam. Golden State will also need him to pitch in against LeBron James, which becomes far less of a pick-your-poison proposition if Looney is holding his own, at both ends, against AD.

That matchup gets a little thorny for the Warriors on offense. Looney doesn’t have the pure range to yank Davis away from the basket. Then again, despite taking the occasional three, the same can be said about Green. Looney, not unlike Draymond, can force AD to move around more with his high screens, hand-offs and sprays to the corner.

Malik Beasley/Dennis Schröder

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Malik Beasley, Rui Hachimura and Dennis SchröderAdam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

Malik Beasley is, in theory, the Laker best suited to play the Malik Monk role: someone who injects quick-dribble rim pressure and three-point volume and keeps the Warriors defense scrambling.

In practice, though, Beasley is much less. He was barely in the Lakers’ rotation during their showdown against the Memphis Grizzlies—and for good reason. He enters the semifinals shooting 40 percent on twos and 26.3 percent from beyond the arc in this season’s playoffs while playing unimpactful-to-detrimental defense.

Head coach Darvin Ham was able to limit Beasley’s minutes versus the Grizzlies. (Many Lakers fans would say he still played too much.) He may not have the same luxury against the Warriors. They lead the playoffs in three-pointers attempted per 100 possessions.

Los Angeles needs to incorporate more deep-ball volume into its offense. New York and Phoenix are the only playoff squads attempting a smaller share of their shots from distance. Beasley is supposed to be the answer. His minutes will say either a lot about his shot-making or the state of the Lakers’ half-court offense.

Dennis Schröder is similarly telltale. He doesn’t offer uninhibited volume from deep, but he provides on-ball north-south jet fuel that no one else on the roster promises other than LeBron James.

Though the Grizzlies limited Schröder’s interior noise in both scale and effectiveness, the Warriors struggle to contain spunky drivers. Can he improve upon the 4.7 points per game and 33.3 percent clip at the rim (3-of-9) he just spit out? The Lakers better hope so.

Jonathan Kuminga

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Jonathan KumingaJed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images

Jonathan Kuminga played a total of 36 minutes in Round 1. Golden State might need to boost his floor time significantly against Los Angeles.

The Lakers have warmed up to larger lineups, and the Warriors have only so many ways to challenge conventional size without overtaxing Gary Payton II. That may be the route they favor anyway. Kuminga has real finishing capability on offense but doesn’t boast range or consistent decision-making. Head coach Steve Kerr has mostly approached his development with a quick hook.

Still, Kuminga can really defend. Especially in one-on-one situations. Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins are the only other Warriors who can reasonably spend time jockeying with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Questionable spacing within L.A.’s half-court offense might streamline Golden State’s decision-making and keep Kuminga tethered to the back-end of the rotation. But this seems like a series in which he’ll be given a chance early—and, potentially, often.

Rui Hachimura

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Rui HachimuraJoe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images

Rui Hachimura came up big-time for the Lakers in Round 1, averaging 14.5 points while putting pressure on Memphis’ defense at nearly every level. He not only converted 83.3 percent(!) of his looks at the rim (15-of-18) and 50 percent of his threes (13-of-26 outside garbage time), but he drilled five of his 11 two-pointers outside 14 feet (45.5 percent).

Replicating that scoring and efficiency is imperative so long as Malik Beasley remains unplayable and both D’Angelo Russell and Dennis Schröder are all over the place. Bake in your usual dose of highly variable Anthony Davis offensive outings, and there are scant few scenarios in which the Lakers beat the Warriors without Hachimura capitalizing, at minimum, on the wide-open jumpers Golden State is sure to relent.

And yet, a plot twist awaits on defense.

The Warriors will force Hachimura to defend more movement than he saw against Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama and Xavier Tillman. His ability to hang with Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and maybe even Klay Thompson will shape the viability of the LeBron-AD-Rui frontcourt combinations—which have been absolutely massive for the Lakers since he came over from Washington, particularly on the defensive end.

Jordan Poole

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Jordan PooleNoah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

Jordan Poole is playing despite a left ankle injury, and through the first round, the results haven’t been pretty. He is shooting just 40.5 percent on twos, including 22 percent between four and 14 feet (4-of-18), and 25.7 percent from three-point range.

Entering the starting lineup hasn’t really helped. He has kept the turnovers to a minimum amid better spacing and thrown some economical passes, but with the exception of an 8-of-15 showing from the floor in Game 4, his scoring has seldom left a positive imprint. (He did have eight free-throw attempts in Game 3.)

Going up against the Lakers’ size won’t make life any easier. Poole too often looks out of control off the dribble, and aside from pockets of defensive competence in the half-court, he remains eminently targetable. Draymond Green-at-the-5 arrangements are more likely to contain Gary Payton II or Donte DiVincenzo.

Golden State can get by with Poole’s Jekyll-and-Hyde act because, well, Stephen Curry exists. But it gets tougher on the nights in which Klay Thompson and/or Andrew Wiggins don’t have it going, and when the Warriors have, so far, been unwilling to play Green, GP2 and Kevon Looney all at once.

More than anything, there will be nights when Golden State needs secondary offense. Poole is supposed to pack that punch. When he does, the Warriors are a completely different, inevitable-seeming team.

When he doesn’t, they’re exponentially more vulnerable.

Jarred Vanderbilt

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Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

Jarred Vanderbilt’s defensive activity is irreplaceable to the Lakers, even with Anthony Davis teleporting all over the court and swallowing or deterring everything and anything around the rim. But he still only plays in measured doses, usually totaling under 22 minutes per game, because of his offensive warts.

Navigating his limited range against the Grizzlies is one thing. L.A. had a margin for offensive error in that series. It won’t have as much wiggle room against a higher-octane Warriors half-court attack. The Lakers will need their own versions of an offensive avalanche at some point—and certainly more than occasionally.

Whether Vanderbilt knocks down enough threes to be a prominent part of the overall solution is, frankly, anyone’s guess. He isn’t much of a shooter, but he swished five of 14 triples (35.7 percent) to close out the final three games of the first round.

That volume and efficiency is juuust enough to complicate Golden State’s defensive approach. They’ll put Draymond Green on Vanderbilt and allow the former to help all over the place no matter what, but the series unfolds a lot differently if Vanderbilt is exploiting that lack of attention.

It isn’t just about the impact those shots have on the Lakers’ offense. Vanderbilt may not be the primary Stephen Curry defender. That burden probably falls on Austin Reaves. But Vando has the point-of-attack chops to soak up Steph reps in real volume. That’ll mean a lot more if he sustains an offensive threat level high enough to jack up his minutes.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes.