Biggest Questions We Have After Golden State Warriors’ Chris Paul Trade

Biggest Questions We Have After Golden State Warriors’ Chris Paul Trade

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Stephen Curry and Chris PaulEzra Shaw/Getty Images

The 2023 NBA offseason is already wilder than any of us could’ve expected. And it reached that point before the draft even started.

This week alone, we’ve witnessed trades involving Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis, while the rumor mill has been churning something fierce.

On Thursday, a Chris Paul deal came completely out of the blue.

Beyond the CP3-for-Jordan Poole swap, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski also reported that Golden State would be sending the Washington Wizards a 2030 first-round pick (top-20 protected) and a 2027 second-rounder. But those extra details didn’t come close to answering the questions inspired by this trade.

Why did the Warriors do it now? Is small-ball still the way to play? Is Golden State a title contender? Can we trace this all the way back to the Draymond Green punch?

Those questions (plus a few stabs at answers) and more can be found below.

Is Small-Ball Still in Fashion?

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Anthony Davis and Draymond GreenHarry How/Getty Images

The Warriors are just over a month removed from being eliminated in the second round by the Los Angeles Lakers.

In that series, Anthony Davis averaged 21.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.2 blocks per game while shooting 57.8 percent from the field. He was dominant on both ends of the floor.

By the end of the postseason, Nikola Jokić was the Finals MVP, and each of the last five regular-season MVP winners were 6’11” or above.

The Warriors made small-ball all the rage in the mid-2010s, but we appear to be in a bit of a renaissance for big men. Doubling down on what made Golden State so unique and successful right now is a gamble.

We have no idea who’ll start right now. Does CP3 bump Andrew Wiggins or Kevon Looney from the starting 5? Regardless, the lineup of Paul, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Wiggins and Draymond (assuming he re-signs with the Warriors) is almost certain to see minutes.

But Curry, Klay and Green are all nearly a decade older than they were at the outset of their small-ball revolution. The speed and defensive intensity necessary to make that approach work is taxing, and there’s no guaranteeing those three and CP3 can still do it.

And regardless of approach, barring more moves, there really isn’t anyone on the Warriors who can slow down Jokić, the new standard-bearer in the Western Conference.

Paul’s ability to engineer good shots out of seemingly any possession will help on offense. But leaning into small-ball now, particularly on defense, is risky.

Will Warriors Fans Embrace CP3?

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Chris Paul and Stephen CurryJim Poorten/NBAE via Getty Images

CP3 has been one of Warriors’ fans biggest foes over the years. All of the flopping, whining and big shots he committed or hit against Golden State drove them up the wall, even if they’re immediately hoping to move on.

After a rivalry that’s lasted nearly a decade, can the Warriors’ faithful really turn the page?

In a word, yes (with a condition).

Fans are fickle. And it’s a lot easier to forgive a former foe when he didn’t have much success against you.

Sure, all the extra “stuff” CP3 does on a basketball court is annoying, but he’s 15-22 for his career against Curry (plus 9-9 in the playoffs). He has zero rings, compared to Curry’s four.

And as soon as Warriors fans see how many open looks CP3 generates for Curry and Klay, they’ll let most of the bygones be bygones.

But ultimately, their capacity for forgiveness will depend on winning. If Paul reopens the Warriors’ title window, he’ll be loved. If not, this move will be second-guessed.

Even in the latter scenario, Paul’s salary is fully non-guaranteed in 2024-25. If things go poorly, Golden State can waive CP3 next offseason and move on. Poole’s contract runs through 2026-27, when he’ll make $34.5 million.

Does This Reopen Golden State’s Championship Window?

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Kevon Looney and Nikola JokićAAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

The answer to the above is yes, but only slightly.

Again, the Warriors don’t have answers for Jokić (or even AD). The Warriors beat the Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.-less Nuggets in the 2022 first round, but Jokić put up 31.0 points, 13.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game in that series.

As we just learned over the last several weeks, Jokić is even harder to stop when he has a healthy supporting cast.

Going through the reigning champions will take some absurd shooting performances. The Warriors are certainly capable of that, but another big man would’ve helped.

The other concern is health. Paul has broken down during multiple postseasons, including 2023, when he missed the Phoenix Suns’ last four games. He’s 38, while Curry, Thompson and Green are 35, 33 and 33, respectively.

In NBA years, that’s old. And injuries to any of the above could torpedo the Warriors’ title chances.

Does This Trace Back to the Draymond Green-Jordan Poole Incident?

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Draymond Green and Jordan PooleKavin Mistry/Getty Images

The 2022-23 Golden State campaign felt borderline doomed since TMZ leaked the video of Draymond drilling Poole with a right hook in a preseason practice.

Head coach Steve Kerr basically admitted as much after his team was eliminated by the Lakers.

“Anytime some trust is lost, then it makes the process much more difficult, and there was some trust lost,” Kerr told reporters at his exit interview. “That’s as blunt as I can be. We have to get back to what has made us really successful, which is a really trusting environment and a group that relies on one another and makes each other better.”

Does swapping Poole for CP3 fix that breach of trust?

Paul is certainly more of a team player. And he finished within the top 30 in box plus/minus this past season, while Poole was outside the top 150. That will help. Just separating Poole and Draymond (again, assuming he re-signs) should help too.

But trust isn’t a given. And it often takes winning and time. We aren’t certain if the Warriors will have either of those ingredients with this bunch.

Why Now?

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Chris PaulJim Poorten/NBAE via Getty Images

Many assumed the new collective bargaining agreement’s “second apron” would chill player movement. Exceeding $182.5 million in salary strips a team of several team-building mechanisms, including the taxpayer mid-level exception and how much money teams are allowed to take back in trades.

But somehow, none of that scared the Suns, Boston Celtics or Warriors.

Phoenix went all-in with Beal’s contract. The Celtics are barreling toward those penalties by adding Kristaps Porziņģis right before Jaylen Brown becomes eligible for a supermax extension. And now the Warriors are taking on CP3 and likely staying over $200 million in payroll instead of salary-dumping Poole’s contract.

The price tag makes it easy to wonder why Golden State pounced now.

The answer is probably simple. The Warriors wanted to land CP3.

As soon as the deal went down, there was some speculation that he was only acquired because his deal is partially guaranteed in 2023-24 and fully non-guaranteed in 2024-25. It offers far more flexibility than Poole’s.

But The Athletic’s Marcus Thompson II and Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes both reported that he’s there to stay (at least for this season). This isn’t a waive-and-stretch-his-contract play.

Wanting him on the roster means the Warriors couldn’t wait to see if Washington was going to waive him. Someone else might have claimed him off waivers. If not, he may have signed elsewhere as a free agent. Another team could’ve swooped in and traded for him before Golden State did.

Ultimately, it looks like the Warriors wanted him in the rotation. This move was the way to make sure he would be.

What’s Next for Poole?

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Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

Jordan Poole is coming off a rough postseason in which he averaged only 10.3 points and 3.5 assists while shooting 34.1 percent from the field and 25.4 percent from three. His regular-season efficiency was way down from where it was in 2021-22, too.

This is seemingly about as low as Poole’s trade value has been since the middle of the 2020-21 campaign.

But he’s 24 years old. And he averaged 17.0 points, 3.8 assists and 2.3 threes while shooting 39.1 percent from deep in the 2022 playoffs.

He’s going to a team that just moved Beal and Porziņģis, where he’ll have a chance to get shots up in bunches. He’ll almost certainly start, too. And his career numbers in that role are far better than what he’s put up as a reserve.

Expect big (though perhaps not hyperefficient) numbers for Poole on the Wizards.

This is his opportunity to rehab his reputation and value as a player. Consider this a bet that he’ll do just that.