Betting Guide for Kings vs Lakers (11/15)

Can the Lakers keep up with the youthful Kings team? They’ll try to as they will seek revenge after their previous loss against Sacramento.

November 15, 2023 4:11 AM Kings Odds +1 Lakers Odds -1 Moneyline +100 / -118 Over/Under 232.5 Time Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET TV ESPN Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

It’s a California showdown when the Lakers host the Kings on Wednesday night.

Let’s break down this matchup between two Western Conference hopefuls in our Kings vs Lakers prediction and pick.

Fox & Sabonis Lead the Kings

The Kings welcomed the return of De’Aaron Fox on Monday night when he shredded the Cavaliers for 28 points and six assists after missing the team’s previous five games. The Kings will be without Alex Len (ankle), and Trey Lyles’ status (calf) remains uncertain.

The Kings have been significantly better with Fox than without him. Over the last two seasons, the Kings have scored 122.4 points per game with Fox compared to 106.9 without him. This season they are just 2-3 without him compared to 3-1 with him. He significantly opens up the offense because he can create a bucket out of nothing.

While the Kings are a -2.1 on the season in terms of Net Rating, there’s plenty of reason to believe that will change moving forward now that Fox is back.

Both Fox and Domantas Sabonis have smashed in these matchups against the Lakers. Over the last two seasons, Sabonis has averaged 17.8 points, 14.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists while Fox has averaged 31.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 8.2 assists.

These prop lines likely will not be available until there is more clarity on the Lakers’ injury report; however, Sabonis has recorded 10, 12, 15, and 21 rebounds in these matchup (21 was without Anthony Davis), and Fox has recorded 37, 34, 32, 31 and 22 points against the Lakers.

I’d look to take Sabobis’ rebound prop, especially if AD does not play, and I’d take Fox over 24.5 points if available.

Will James & Davis Play on the Back to Back?

This game is the Lakers’ second game in as many days after facing the Grizzlies on Tuesday night. The Lakers have listed both LeBron James (calf) and Anthony Davis (adductor) on their injury report before the team’s game against Memphis, but their status for the second game of a back to back should be in question.

It is notable though that both AD and LeBron have yet to sit during the second game of a back to back this season. However, if they do not play, the line would move significantly in the Kings’ direction.

The Lakers are 5-5 this season with a -3.3 Net Rating. They have struggled to find an offensive rhythm and are scoring just 110.5 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

It’s still early in the season; however, it’s concerning that the Lakers’ most used lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Aust Reaves, Taurean Prince, James and Davis has a -16.5 Net Rating and is scoring just 107.2 points per 100. That lineup has been a sieve defensively as well, especially against elite guards, which is problematic against Fox.

Kings vs Lakers Prediction

At the time of this writing, the line sits at Kings +1. James and Davis’ uncertain availability has the books hedging the line here. If both play, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lakers move to -3, but if both sit, I expect the line to move as much as Lakers +3.

Given the circumstances, it may be worth waiting until their confirmation prior to betting this game, but I lean Kings even without their status update. The Kings’ offense presents the Lakers’ defense with a difficult task due to their elite guard play, and this will put a significant strain on Russell and Reaves.

Considering I like the Kings in this matchup regardless, I’d bet half of my normal wager on the Kings Moneyline now. I’d add to it at a better number if AD and LeBron are confirmed in, or I’d even lay the points on the spread up to -3 if they are ruled out.

Pick: Kings Moneyline +100