Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Monday 7/3
Happy 4th of July #Happy4thofJuly
Monday night’s eight-game MLB slate provides ample opportunities for player prop bettors to start their week off on the right foot. With SuperDraft posting its usual slew of total base, strikeout, and fantasy point props, we’ve pinpointed several that we feel yield value and will hopefully result in some extra DFS cash at the end of the night. Users who sign up for SuperDraft can pick their favorite over/unders via SuperDraft’s Fantasy Props feature, bringing them closer to the action while having a chance to win cash prizes.
SuperDraft users can win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. Consequently, the more legs you add to your player prop parlay, the larger your potential payout becomes, but as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep will be challenging.
Below, we’ll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Monday night’s MLB slate. Users don’t necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
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*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Luis Arraez, 2B, Marlins vs. Cardinals – OVER 1.5 bases 
The league’s leading hitter (.389) is routinely a strong bet to eclipse 1.5 total bases from hits, as Arraez sets up well to do just that in Monday’s series opener against Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.63 xFIP, 6.34 K/9) and the Cardinals. With Mikolas being more of a finesse pitcher, relying on his pristine command (5.1 BB percentage) and his team’s solid defense to get outs (.989 FP), Arraez has a real shot to put several balls in play tonight, boosting his chances of totaling two-plus bases.
Mikolas sits well below the league average in K (11th percentile) and whiff rate (second percentile), and against the stingy Arraez (100th percentile in whiff percentage), we’re not expecting the All-Star second baseman to get punched out tonight. Arraez may not be hitting the ball extremely hard (33rd percentile in avg. exit velocity), but he has a knack for finding vacated spaces and racking up base knocks.It also doesn’t hurt that Arraez is picking up the baseball extremely well inside Marlins Park, donning a .430 average and a .466 OBP over 149 at-bats at home this season.
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2. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins vs. Royals – OVER 1.5 bases 
Correa’s also in a favorable spot to total two-plus bases from hits, facing Royals rookie Austin Cox (0-1, 2.25 ERA, 4.50 xFIP) in his second career Major League start. Through his first 16.1 innings in the big leagues, Cox is recording an unsustainable .135 batting average of balls in play, a number that’s sure to begin escalating toward the league average (.297 BABIP) as he logs more innings.
While Cox sports a respectable 2.25 ERA, his 4.50 xFIP indicates he’s likely to endure some negative regression, which could begin tonight. Despite that, Correa’s still making solid contact at the plate, sitting in the 76th percentile in barrel rate and the 92nd percentile in max exit velocity. Back the stud shortstop to find a gap against Kansas City’s rookie hurler.
MORE: Join SuperDraft now and enjoy a deposit match up to $100! Enter promo code “TSN” for a free $10 when you register!
3. Trent Grisham, CF, Padres vs. Angels – OVER 0.5 bases 
With Grisham’s total bases sitting at just 0.5, we’ll take a chance on the deflated total and back the Padres’ No. 9 hitter to scratch across one base knock tonight. Grisham draws a plus matchup against Angels righthander Jamie Barria, who allowed five earned runs on seven hits in just three innings of work against in his most recent outing against the White Sox.
Grisham enters Monday night off a strong performance during last week’s road trip to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, totaling five hits (three XBH) in six games. We’ll continue to ride his hot streak, backing the lefty who ranks among the league’s best in barrel rate (91st percentile).
4. Luke Weaver, SP, Reds @ Nationals – UNDER 3 strikeouts 
Although Weaver’s strikeout prop O/U sits at just three, we’re not sure the struggling hurler’s able to go OVER this number tonight. Weaver faces a Nationals’ offense owning a league-best 18.8-percent K-rate, and with Weaver only punching out hitters at an 18.6-percent clip, sitting down four Nats’ hitters appears to be a challenging feat. Weaver’s failed to go OVER three strikeouts in four straight starts (two pushes) and we think that number will be five after tonight’s outing.