Baylor vs. Villanova odds, line: 2021 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness Sweet 16 predictions from top model

Reaching the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament has become a familiar occurrence for the Baylor Bears of late, as they’ve advanced to the round five times in the last 11 competitions. But after winning the first two appearances, the team has suffered a pair of double-digit losses — including a 70-50 setback against South Carolina in 2017. The top-seeded Bears attempt to halt that slide and move on in the South Region when they battle the fifth-seeded Villanova Wildcats in the 2021 NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Baylor (24-2) also lost to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 in 2014 but avenged that defeat last weekend, while Villanova (18-6) is looking to win the national championship for the third time in five Tournaments after last year’s event was cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Tip-off from Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is set for 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS. The Bears are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Baylor vs. Villanova odds at William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 142. Before making any Villanova vs. Baylor picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Villanova in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Villanova vs. Baylor:

Why Baylor can cover 

Non-conference opponents have been no match for the Bears this season, and the NCAA Tournament 2021 has been no exception. After posting eight victories over schools that don’t reside in the Big 12 by an average of 30.4 points during the regular season, Baylor defeated Hartford by 24 in the first round and followed with a 13-point triumph over Wisconsin. It had three players score 16 or more points but also played strong defense against the Badgers, limiting them to 29 points in the opening half and just 38.1 percent shooting overall from 3-point range.

A top seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history, Baylor is counting on top scorer Jared Butler (16.9 points), Davion Mitchell (team-high 5.4 assists) and leading rebounder Mark Vital (6.7) to guide it to the success other No. 1 seeds have enjoyed in the Sweet 16. In the last five Tournaments, top-seeded clubs have lost only once in 16 games while going 11-4-1 against the spread. They have own a 110-29 all-time record in the round — including a 40-9 mark versus fifth-seeded squads, which bodes well for the Bears’ chances of reaching the Elite Eight for the first time since 2012.

Why Villanova can cover

Coach Jay Wright has been doing an excellent job of preparing the Wildcats for the pressure of the NCAA Tournament, as the team has won 16 of its 18 games in the tourney since 2016. Being the lower seed also does not seem to affect Villanova, whose 17 all-time victories in such situations — including six against No. 1 seeds — are one fewer than Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament record. Overall, the Wildcats have won three consecutive Sweet-16 contests — each by at least 12 points.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who leads Villanova in scoring (16 points), rebounds (8.3), steals (1.0) and blocks (0.6), has hit double figures in points in eight straight contests and posted five double-doubles in that span. The sophomore forward followed a 22-point, 11-rebound and six-assist performance against Winthrop in the first round with 18, six and six versus North Texas to become the first Wildcat with multiple 15-5-5 efforts in one NCAA Tournament. Villanova has been strong defensively as it has held five straight opponents and seven of its last eight to 40 percent shooting or worse and has won 14 of the 15 games this season in which it allowed fewer than 70 points. 

How to make Villanova vs. Baylor picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 153 points. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Villanova vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.