Battle over the replacement of Ruth Bader Ginsburg rages as tributes to late justice pour in

September 19, 2020 at 7:09 AM EDT

The views of a handful of Republican senators will be closely watched in coming days to determine whether McConnell will have the votes to muscle through a Ginsburg replacement either before the election of in a lame-duck session afterward.

Republicans have an effective 53-to-47 majority in the Senate, and with the Senate having abolished the 60-vote threshold for Supreme Court justices early in Trump’s presidency, that means they can afford to lose three votes and still confirm a new justice, given Vice President Pence would break any ties. Four departures very likely means the new nominee would fail.

At least two GOP senators indicated in interviews before Ginsburg’s death that they would not support filling a Supreme Court vacancy so close to Election Day. And in Arizona, where Democrat Mark Kelly is leading incumbent GOP Sen. Martha McSally, the winner may be sworn into his or her term during a lame-duck session, altering the current 53-47 Republican control of the Senate if Kelly does prevail on Nov. 3.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a perennial swing vote on contentious confirmation fights, told the New York Times earlier this month that she would not support voting to confirm a new justice in October, saying, “I think that’s too close, I really do.”

And in an interview with Alaska Public Media that occurred Friday ahead of the news of Ginsburg’s death, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) — another consistent swing vote — said she would not vote to confirm a justice before the election, either.

In his statement Friday, McConnell pointedly did not lay out a timetable for the confirmation vote, namely whether he would try to hold it before the Nov. 3 elections or whether it would be in the final weeks of the year, before the swearing-in of a new Senate in January.

By Seung Min Kim and John Wagner