Barnaby Joyce says all is well with the Nationals’ vote – but a deeper dive suggests trouble lies ahead

As the Liberal party started its self-examination, Barnaby Joyce was busy putting lipstick on a pig, talking up the National party’s stellar result on the weekend.

He said that while it was disappointing the Coalition had lost the election, the Nationals held all of their seats, and got close to picking up Lingiari and Hunter. Clearly, it was the Liberals’ fault.

“Even with three retirements and open seats, we won back those seats,” Joyce told reporters on Monday. “And, of course, we picked up another senator. So after 1 July, our party room will be bigger than it was before.”

But it’s worth a reality check on the results to discover what happened beneath the surface in rural seats on Saturday night.

Let’s start with the caveat that Joyce’s assertion assumes Cowper on the NSW north coast is retained by Nationals MP Pat Conaghan against the teal independent Caz Heise.

Cowper is currently too close to call. But Conaghan copped a primary vote swing against him of more than 6%, acknowledging he was damaged by Matt Canavan describing the government’s net zero targets as “dead in the water”.

If Cowper remains in the Nationals’ stable, the junior Coalition partner will have indeed held all of their seats.

But it is instructional to look at some of the swings in primary votes compared with the 2019 election under Michael McCormack. As Darren Chester pointed out on Monday there were some “significant swings” this time.

In Nicholls, independent Rob Priestly won more than 25% of the primary vote from a standing start, compared to the Nationals Sam Birrell, who attracted just over 27% with the benefit of millions of dollars of Coalition promises.

The 17% vote for the Liberals candidate, Steve Brooks, sent a portion of preferences flowing back to the Nationals. Now that Birrell holds that seat, the Liberals are not allowed to run next time and will not be able to help out. If Priestly decides to run again, Nicholls will be a very close contest.

Riverina, held by Michael McCormack, suffered a primary swing of more than 12%, with double the field of candidates, and votes leaking to One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.

In Queensland, former Nationals minister Keith Pitt has lost nearly 4% of his primary vote in Hinkler, with independent Jack Dempsey picking up more than 13% of the primary vote.

In Flynn, where Colin Boyce replaced the retiring Ken O’Dowd, the Nationals suffered a primary swing of 2.5% in a supposedly pro-coal seat, even after suggesting the 2050 net zero target left “wriggle room”.

Already Chester has warned a lurch to the right is a recipe for ‘irrelevance’

The Nationals were bullish about Hunter and Lingiari, but did not pick up either, in spite of Joyce making regular campaign stops in both seats and promising $200m in Lingiari and $300m in Hunter.

In Indi, where independent MP Helen Haines squeaked across the line in 2019 on a 1.4% margin, she picked up 8% more primary votes with both Liberals and Nationals standing against her. The National party lost 5.5% of their primary votes. (The Liberals lost 4%.)

This brings us to Joyce’s claim to have increased his party room with another senator.

The Liberals and Nationals take it in turns filling the second spot on the Senate ticket.

The dual citizenship crisis that hit the federal parliament saw the Liberals pick up that spot after Fiona Nash was forced to leave parliament. Senator Perin Davey defied the odds in 2019 to win the third spot, even as Joyce was arguing to split from the Liberals on the ticket.

This time, it was the Nationals’ turn for No 2 on the Senate paper. They got their Senate candidate, the former NSW party director Ross Cadell, back via an infinitely more winnable position for the party. It was business as usual, not a coup for Joyce’s campaigning.

More instructive are the Nationals candidates who held their own or attracted swings. Darren Chester got a swing towards him after asking his Gippsland voters not to punish him for the sins of his leader, pointing out he disagreed with Joyce. Chester has also been vocal (relatively speaking for the Nats) on climate change.

Kevin Hogan in Page, an area hit badly by floods, managed to hold his vote in spite of the devastation of the flooding in Lismore and the surrounding region. Remember Hogan has been vocal on climate change and travelled to Cop26.

Andrew Gee in Calare also got a swing towards him. He had ensured there was no light between him and independent Kate Hook on climate and a federal integrity commission. He also threatened his leader with resignation over veterans affairs funding.

Meanwhile, Richmond – Country party icon Doug Anthony’s old seat – is going down to the wire between Labor and the Greens. It’s hard to see how the Nationals can appeal to that seat in the future.

All of these dynamics mean the Nationals will go through the same philosophical angst as the Liberal party. Already Chester has warned a lurch to the right is a recipe for “irrelevance”. McCormack pointed out that no one built a negative campaign around his name when he was the leader.

Expect more fireworks when the leadership ballot is officially thrown open.

When you wipe the lipstick off, it is clear that competition against the Nationals in rural seats remains patchy but steadily increasing, and voters can swing when given palatable alternatives.