Ballots are yet to open in the NSW election but have the teals already won?

Many haven’t been elected yet – and they may never be – but a field of independents is already taking credit for a more progressive agenda emerging ahead of the New South Wales election.

“The benefits are really clear,” says Jacqui Scruby, a “teal” candidate for the seat of Pittwater.

“The indirect [effect] is driving the conversation – putting policies on the agenda that the major parties won’t touch, and forcing them to address those issues.”

So far this campaign, existing independent MPs and others vying to join them on the crossbench come 25 March have show signs of significant influence.

After banding together to propose a bill to ban Pep-11, the government announced it would introduce its own.

Campaigns led by powerful Sydney MP Alex Greenwich have contributed to bipartisan support of a future ban on so-called gay conversion practices and the promise of a cashless poker machine card from the coalition.

And there has been a slew of policies focused on women’s safety and economic empowerment that advocacy groups say is unlike anything they’ve seen before.

“That’s the beauty of independent, issues-based politics,” says Scruby, as she attempts to beat local councillor and Liberal candidate Rory Amon, who is seeking replace outgoing minister Rob Stokes in the northern Sydney seat.

Jacqui Scruby campaigning on Sydney’s northern beaches. Photograph: Blake Sharp-Wiggins/The Guardian

Scruby is one of five Climate 200-backed candidates vying for seats the independent funding machine deems winnable.

Climate 200’s executive director, Byron Fay, cites the government’s commitment to reduce emissions by 70% by 2035, ban offshore oil and gas drilling in NSW waters and make the state’s pokies cashless by 2028 as proof independents have had “an enormous impact”.

“If this is what these community independents can achieve just by putting their hands up, what’s possible if they actually get elected?” he says.

David Clune, an honorary associate in government and international relations at the University of Sydney, says there was no doubt that independents had pushed parts of the Liberal party “way out to the left”, but it was not a universal move.

“It seems Matt Kean is terrified that what happened to all of his mates at the federal election will happen to parts of the state team,” Clune says.

“Certainly Perrottet has got the message and moved to the left but I am not sure it’s as much of a victory as [the independents] think it is. It’s a coalition and the Nats [National party] aren’t budgeting one inch.”

‘We are determined to win’: teal independent candidate Helen Conway (left). Photograph: Blake Sharp-Wiggins/The Guardian

Whether the teals can wield even greater influence on a minority government from the crossbench, pundits aren’t sure.

“I don’t think we’re going to see a teal wave or anything,” electoral analyst​ Ben Raue says.

“We have a premier who is a conservative man who leads a moderate government, but it might not matter the flavour of the Liberals if they have been in power for 12 years,” Raue says.

“People in these areas have had a taste for indies,” he adds, noting the intersection between targeted state seats and recent federal “teal” victors including Dr Sophie Scamps, Kylea Tink and Allegra Spender.

Optional preferential voting will prove challenging for teals at the state election, says Redbridge pollster Simon Welsh.

“They’re a real chance to pick up a couple [of seats]. I wouldn’t like to overegg it but I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw a Lane Cove or North Shore topple,” he says.

“We’re seeing low-40s type numbers for the primary vote but optional preferential voting puts a cloud of doubt around that.”

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Jacqui Scruby says the benefits of having independent candidates are ‘really clear’. Photograph: Blake Sharp-Wiggins/The Guardian

Alongside the ‘teals’ are independents going without the backing of the Climate 200 machine, including Karen Freyer in Vaucluse and Larissa Penn in Willoughby.

Penn came close in the 2022 byelection triggered by the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian, while Freyer is hoping to ride Spender’s Wentworth success to steal the affluent electorate from the Liberals.

Early in her campaign, Freyer vowed to fight for a second public high school within the affluent area. She says after that, the government began speaking about future possibilities for the seat – a win she’s claimed as a victory for a community long “taken for granted”.

“There’s a definite appetite for change – people are recognising that we do have needs,” Freyer says.

“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all of the independents proposed [Pep-11] legislation and Matt Kean came out only two days later saying that his government would do exactly the same thing. It’s cause and effect.”

The Liberal’s candidate in Vaucluse, Kellie Sloane, says the independents’ claims are a “backhanded compliment to our government ”.

She says education was always going to be a topic for the area, with consultation about the nearby Randwick Boys and Randwick Girls high schools already underway.

“With a number of options on the table, this consultation is a great opportunity for the local community to participate in the work to set the future direction for schooling in this part of Sydney,” she says.

Kean, the treasurer and energy minister, denies his government was pushed into the legislation.

“The NSW Liberal Nationals government has been steadfastly opposed to Pep-11, refusing to support its extension every step of the way,” he says.

“The recent decision to put our policy into law is as a direct result of the Albanese government’s recent failure to stop Pep-11.”

Kean declined to answer further questions from Guardian Australia on whether the teal threat was influencing government policy.

Amon, the Liberal candidate in Pittwater, hit back at the independents’ claims, saying the state government “has been forced to step in because federal teal candidates who promised to make a difference for the environment have made no difference, and worse, have left communities on the northern beaches vulnerable to projects like this”.

North Shore challenger Helen Conway welcomes moves from the government to meet independents on policies, but she remains focused on unseating incumbent Liberal Felicity Wilson.

Helen Conway (centre) campaigning on Sydney’s north shore. Photograph: Blake Sharp-Wiggins/The Guardian

“We’ve pushed them into making that [Pep-11] commitment,” Conway says. “Now, obviously, if the coalition is reelected, you need a strong crossbench to hold them to account because when these promises are made at 10 minutes to midnight, you’ve got to deal with some suspicion.

“Putting pressure on the major parties to focus on their communities, and reducing the margin, these are all different levels of success – but please be assured, we are determined to win.”