Back a big game from Jaren Jackson when Grizzlies host as underdogs against Pelicans Tuesday

In the rearview mirror are five Christmas Day matchups that took 10 marquee teams off the Tuesday slate of NBA games. However, there are a few sneaky good matchups on tonight’s schedule, including one in New Orleans.

The Pelicans host the rejuvenated Memphis Grizzlies, who have played much better since star point guard Ja Morant returned from his suspension last week.

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Odds (via BetMGM)

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans prediction: Analysis

In three games since his return, Morant has averaged 28.0 points, 9.0 assists and 5.7 boards. More importantly, the Grizzlies have found new life, winning all three games after a 6-19 start while Morant was serving his 25-game suspension.

The first of the three victories came exactly a week ago against these same Pelicans, who watched Morant hit the game-winner at the buzzer, giving Memphis a 115-113 victory as a 7-point underdog.

Oddsmakers have installed New Orleans as a 5-point home favorite for tonight as the Grizzlies deal with an array of injuries, although they could get guard Marcus Smart back for the first time since he sprained his foot in mid-November. He’s listed as questionable.

If we were to bet the spread in tonight’s game, we’d lean Pelicans -5. Instead, let’s focus on a prop that’s set at even money and hitting at a near 90% clip over that last month. That’s right – 90%.

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Jaren Jackson Jr. points line against the Pelicans is set at 18.5, which he has exceeded in nine of his last 10 games, including all three games with Morant back (24, 21 and 20 points).

Obviously, the Grizzlies are a much better team with Morant on the court, but they’re also a much better team when Jackson Jr. doesn’t need to score 40-plus points, something he’s done two times this month with a 37-point game thrown in for good measure.

Jackson Jr. is averaging 21.6 per game with Morant back and has been put in position to score with Morant’s superb passing abilities rather than him, along with Desmond Bane, trying to create too much on their own.

Jackson Jr. likes playing against the Pelicans. He had 24 points in the win a week ago, giving him three 20-plus games in his last five against the Pelicans and six since February of last year.

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans prediction: Pick

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