Azerbaijan shelling its Nagorno-Karabakh region in latest escalation with Armenians

Azerbaijan launched “anti-terrorist activities” in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday, saying it wanted to restore constitutional order and drive out what it said were Armenian troops, a move that could foreshadow a new war.

In a statement announcing its operation, Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry spoke of its intention to “disarm and secure the withdrawal of formations of Armenia’s armed forces from our territories, [and] neutralize their military infrastructure.” The government in Baku added it was only targeting legitimate military targets, using “high-precision weapons,” and not civilians.

But loud shelling was audible from unverified social media footage filmed in Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, calledKhankendi by Azerbaijan. The Karabakh separatist human rights ombudsman, Gegham Stepanyan, said on Tuesday there were “multiple casualties” among the civilian population of Karabakh as a result of the strikes.

Baku announced its operation after complaining that six of its citizens had been killed by land mines in two separate incidents, something it blamed on “illegal Armenian armed groups.”

Armenia, which says its armed forces are not present in Karabakh, said in a statement via its defence ministry that the situation on its own border with Azerbaijan was stable.

Reuters could not immediately verify assertions from either side.

Ceasefire in 2020 after 2nd major modern conflict

Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh by Armenians, is a mountainous region at the southern end of the Karabakh mountain range, within Azerbaijan. It is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but its 120,000 inhabitants are predominantly ethnic Armenians. They have their own government, which is close to Armenia but not officially recognized by Armenia or any other country.

Armenians, who are Christian, claim a long presence in the area, dating back several centuries. Azerbaijan, whose inhabitants are mostly Turkic Muslims, also claims deep historical ties to the region, which over the centuries has come under the sway of Persians, Turks and Russians.

In this photo taken from video released by Azerbaijan’s defence ministry on Tuesday, smoke rises over an area that Azerbaijan says hosts Armenian forces’ positions in the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. (Defence Ministry of Azerbaijan/The Associated Press)

Bloody conflict between the two peoples goes back more than a century, and Armenia and Azerbaijan have already fought two wars over Karabakh in the three decades since the Soviet Union — which they were both part of — collapsed.

As the Soviet Union crumbled, the First Karabakh War, which ended in 1994, claimed the lives of about 30,000 people, while displacing more than one million, mostly Azeris driven from their homes.

The Armenian side ended up in control of Nagorno-Karabakh itself and large parts of seven surrounding districts. But in 2020, Azerbaijan began a military operation and won resounding victory in 44 days, taking back the seven districts and about a third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

The use of drones bought from Turkey and Israel was cited by military analysts as one of the main reasons for Azerbaijan’s victory three years ago, when at least 6,500 people were killed.

Russia, which has a defence treaty with Armenia but also has good relations with Azerbaijan, negotiated a ceasefire.

Analysts say successive rounds of talks, mediated variously by the European Union, the United States and Russia, have brought the two sides closer to a permanent peace treaty, but a final settlement remains elusive. The most sensitive issue is the status of the 120,000 ethnic Armenians in Karabakh, whose rights and security Armenia says must be guaranteed.

Humanitarian aid concerns

Armenia has complained loudly that Russia’s war in Ukraine has distracted Moscow from acting as a guarantor of security in the South Caucasus.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Tuesday that the Kremlin was worried by the latest escalation, and that Moscow’s peacekeepers in the region would continue their mission. She said Azerbaijan warned Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh about military action against separatists just minutes before starting it.

An Armenian soldier looks through binoculars as he stands at fighting positions near the village of Taghavard in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, on Jan. 11, 2021. Two major wars and sporadic skirmishes have broken out there since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. (Artem Mikryukov/Reuters)

The escalation occurred a day after badly needed food and medicine was delivered to Karabakh along two roads simultaneously, a step that looked like it could help ease mounting tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Until the last few days, Baku had imposed sweeping restrictions on the Lachin corridor — the only road linking Armenia with Karabakh — and had not allowed in aid, on the grounds that the route was purportedly being used for arms smuggling.

Armenia had said that Baku’s actions were illegal.

Azerbaijani forces are trying to seize Karabakh population centres, the Interfax news agency cited Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as saying.

Pashinyan said he was in touch with the Karabakh separatist leaders and expected Russian peacekeepers to act in order to stabilize the situation.

The European Union condemned on Tuesday the military escalation in Karabakh and called on Azerbaijan to stop its current military activities, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement.

The French Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday no pretext could justify the military operation Azerbaijan launched in Nagorno-Karabakh, adding it was calling for an immediate United Nations Security Council meeting following Baku’s move.

A senior U.S. State Department official speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity said diplomatic engagement is underway on tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, adding that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken would likely get involved.